William & Mary vs. ColgateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAndy Kerr Stadium

William & Mary3–5

0–37Final

Colgate4–4

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
WILL	0	0	0	0	0
COLG	0	20	7	10	37

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 45.5 53¢

Why Key Number CFB likes it: Pinnacle's 44.5 main total supports a lower-scoring baseline; DraftKings and FanDuel show 45.5.

Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 2-1 on this game · +26% return

Game total over 45.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Over depth stake is $1,300 versus $0 reported worse-price depth on under: over is deeper behind the quote.
- Over has 2 worse-price book levels versus 0 reported for under; two of three measures agree.
- Directional coherence: backing over, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Under's depth and level fields were not returned; treating absent worse-price depth as zero may overstate the asymmetry.
Game total under 45.5
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle's 44.5 main total supports a lower-scoring baseline; DraftKings and FanDuel show 45.5.
- Colgate's 2026 defense grades 90.1; William & Mary's offense grades 58.8 and produces -0.1203 EPA/play.
- QB gate checked: latest pass leaders were Jake Stearney (45 attempts) and Winston Watkins (24); official checks found no out or open battle.
- Most likely loss: Colgate's defense creates short fields against William & Mary's defense, producing 46 or more points.
Total points under 45.5
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Colgate averages only 0.001 offensive EPA/play and 19.6 points; W&M averages -0.120 EPA/play and 21.1 points.
- Colgate's defense allows 15.6 points per game with -0.103 defensive EPA/play; W&M's offense has just a 40.4% success rate.
- Pinnacle's nearby under 44.5 is -115; ProphetX offers the under at 45.5 for -113, adding a half-point cushion.
- Most likely loss: W&M's defense allows 36.0 points per game, letting Colgate score efficiently despite its middling offense.

Win chance, start to finish

50%COLGWILLKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won William & Mary vs. Colgate?

The Colgate won 37–0 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.