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Marist vs. San DiegoFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalTorero Stadium
Marist4–4
40–41Final
San Diego3–5
Score by period
Team1234T
MARI14571440
SAN71414641

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 49.5 52¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-2 on this game · +54% return

  1. Game total over 49.54 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket

    4 modelsCFB Heater, Tempo Gap +2
    Why 4 models like it
    CFB Heater
      • No college-football lineup or injury report is served for this game; unknown personnel could suppress scoring.
      Tempo Gap
      • Fair total 53.5: a 4.0-point gap over DraftKings’ exact 49.5; full eight-game coverage.
      • Combined pace projects 140.8 snaps: San Diego averages 76.9 with 78.0% no-huddle; Marist averages 63.9.
      • Marist’s defense allows only 21.5 points and +0.026 defensive EPA/play, which can cap San Diego’s contribution.
      Kickoff Ledger
      • Season scoring averages total 53.4 points: San Diego 29.0 PPG, Marist 24.4.
      • San Diego allows 37.3 PPG and +0.260 defensive EPA/play, a strong matchup for Marist scoring.
      • San Diego's defensive numbers may be inflated by opponent quality and could regress toward competence.
      Picks With Pink Grading System
      • Eight-game scoring blend projects Marist 30.8 and San Diego 25.3, for 56.1 total points.
      • Pooled 16 recent team-game totals: mean 56.1, sample SD 15.4; uncalibrated normal approximation gives 66.5% over 49.5.
      • Both samples are only eight games per team and opponent-adjustment is a simple scoring/points-allowed blend.
    • Marist Red Foxes to win2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +156 on FanDuel

      2 modelsD1 Winner, Long Way Home
      Why 2 models like it
      D1 Winner
      • Marist efficiency composite z −0.03 versus San Diego −0.42, a 0.39-z advantage.
      • Marist allowed 0.026 defensive EPA/play versus San Diego’s 0.260 through eight games.
      • Marist travels cross-country to San Diego; both teams have seven days’ rest, but venue favors San Diego.
      Long Way Home
      • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, Marist's eight-game defensive EPA allowed is +0.026 versus San Diego's +0.260; lower is better.
      • Marist averages +2.875 points per game in margin, while San Diego averages -8.25; the market makes San Diego the roughly 61% favorite.
      • Most likely loss: San Diego's home field and higher 29.0 points-per-game average turn a close matchup into a Toreros win.
    • Marist Red Foxes +3.5
      +96%Won

      Taken at −104 on FanDuel

      Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The same eight-game points blend projects Marist to win 30.8-25.3, or by 5.6 points before venue adjustment.
      • Marist's defense allowed 21.5 points per game in the window versus 37.3 allowed by San Diego.
      • Marist's PFF defense grade is 90.4 versus San Diego's 68.4, supporting the underdog's ability to stay within one score.
      • San Diego has home field and the stronger recent offense EPA/play: 0.081 versus Marist's 0.059.
    • Game over 50.5 total points
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

      BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season offense/defense blend projects about 56.1 points: Marist offense 24.4 plus San Diego defense allowed 37.3, and San Diego offense 29.0 plus Marist defense allowed 21.5.
      • San Diego's last eight games averaged 66.3 total points; both offenses posted positive recent EPA and San Diego's defense allowed 0.260 EPA per play over the window.
      • Research quality 78/100; Grade B because the supported edge clears the threshold but FCS lineup and availability data are incomplete.
      • Marist's own last-eight game totals averaged only 45.9, so the over needs San Diego's pace/scoring environment to transfer.
    • Game total over 51.5
      +93%Won

      Taken at −108 on FanDuel

      CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 56.0 projected points from blended scoring and matchup distribution; market total is 51.5.
      • San Diego allows 37.25 points per game and posts +0.2596 defensive EPA allowed per play over its last eight.
      • Marist offense averages +0.0593 EPA per play; San Diego's 68.4 defensive PFF grade is the matchup weakness.
      • Marist scores only 24.4 points per game; its offense can stall against a home team with an 86.3 passing grade.
    • Marist Red Foxes spread +3.5
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Marist's listed last-five scoring margin is +3.8; San Diego's is -4.6.
      • The roughly 8.4-point recent margin gap points toward Marist relative to San Diego -3.5.
      • The live board's same-game related prices do not provide a sharper same-line confirmation; this is a standalone projection.
      • Most likely loss: San Diego's explosive offense wins by four or more and converts its home-field edge.

    Win chance, start to finish

    50%SANMARIKickoff
    Oct 31Final

    Questions

    Who won Marist vs. San Diego?

    The San Diego won 41–40 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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