Davidson vs. St. ThomasFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalO'Shaughnessy Stadium
Davidson3–5
7–35Final
St. Thomas6–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAVI | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ST | 10 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 35 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-5 on this game · −100% return
- St. Thomas Tommies −30.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Novig
3 modelsEPA Mismatch, D1 Winner +1Why 3 models like it
EPA Mismatch- SRS rates St. Thomas -28.9 versus Davidson -61.4: 32.5 points of opponent-adjusted separation.
- Current eight-game EPA: St. Thomas +0.200 offense and +0.060 defense allowed; Davidson -0.027 and +0.161.
- Davidson has 14 days of rest versus St. Thomas's 7, a meaningful situational counterweight.
D1 Winner- St. Thomas leads recent offensive EPA/play 0.200 to -0.027 and success rate 49.2% to 41.9%.
- Defensive EPA allowed favors St. Thomas 0.060 to 0.161; lower is better, with PFF overall grades 85.6 to 64.0.
- College lineups are expected rather than confirmed; no official FCS injury report or mapped X signal covers late scratches.
CFB HunterV2- Model cover probability 57.0%, 6.5 percentage points above Kalshi's 50.5c midpoint.
- Opponent-adjusted SRS favors St. Thomas by 32.5 points: -28.9 versus Davidson's -61.4.
- A 30.5-point margin is vulnerable to garbage-time scores or a late Davidson backdoor cover.
- Davidson Wildcats over 61.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- St. Thomas averages 0.2001 offensive EPA/play and 2.771 points/drive over eight games.
- Davidson allows 0.1608 defensive EPA/play, a matchup that can sustain St. Thomas scoring.
- Davidson averages only -0.0272 offensive EPA/play, so a one-sided blowout could leave the Wildcats short of a useful contribution.
- Game over 60.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- St. Thomas last-8 offense: +0.2001 EPA/play and 2.771 points per drive; Davidson allowed +0.1608 EPA/play.
- Recent game totals averaged 64.0 for St. Thomas and 61.4 for Davidson; 60.5 improves protection versus the sportsbook 61.5 reference.
- Latest PFF team grades favor St. Thomas 85.6 to 64.0, including an 81.2 offense grade versus Davidson's 63.0 defense.
- Davidson's offense was -0.0272 EPA/play, while St. Thomas allowed only +0.0600 EPA/play; the matchup can suppress the Wildcats.
Win chance, start to finish
50%STDAVIKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Davidson vs. St. Thomas?
The St. Thomas won 35–7 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.