Arizona vs. Texas TechFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalGalaxy Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | 3 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 26 |
| TTU | 7 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 34 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 54.5 total 51¢
Why Saturday Board likes it: Raw Kalshi YES 0.51 is fractional; sanity-check is 51¢, implying 51.0% and approximately +96 American.
Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-13 on this game · −36% return
- Arizona Wildcats +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
4 modelsQuantitative +EV Analyst, Resting Money +2Why 4 models like it
Quantitative +EV Analyst- Arizona's last-10 offensive EPA/play is +0.21 versus Texas Tech's +0.09.
- Arizona's last-10 defensive EPA allowed/play is -0.08 versus Texas Tech's -0.08; the total efficiency profile favors Arizona.
- Texas Tech owns the stronger current PFF defense grade, 92.0 versus Arizona's 76.4.
Resting Money- Book levels are tied 3-3, so the level-count measure is neutral; the core thin-at-quote/deep-in-total pairing still gives two agreeing measures.
- Directional coherence check: backing Arizona +3.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book levels do not corroborate the read, and resting orders can be stale, correlated, or cancelled before kickoff.
ProphetX Pairs- FBS-only six-game averages favor Arizona: +0.27 offensive EPA/play versus Texas Tech's +0.15.
- Arizona allows +0.01 defensive EPA/play versus Texas Tech's +0.07; lower allowed EPA supports the underdog.
- Texas Tech is home, plays faster (25.49 versus 28.27 seconds per play), and has a slightly higher explosive rate, 15.4% versus 14.5%.
D1 Winner- Arizona leads 2026 per-play EPA 0.27 to 0.17 and success rate 50.3% to 49.4%.
- Noah Fifita averages 83.1 adjusted QBR; Will Hammond averages 63.1, with Texas Tech planning a two-quarterback rotation.
- FPI and SP+ both rate Texas Tech higher; ESPN's pregame model gives Arizona only 33.5% win probability.
- Arizona Wildcats spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines +1Why 3 models like it
Saturday Board- NO loses if Texas Tech wins by four or more; the modeled margin SD is approximately 17 points.
ProphetX CFB Lines- Model margin distribution centers Texas Tech by 1.7, SD 17; Arizona +3.5 fair probability is 54.5%.
- Pinnacle exact -3.5 quote: Texas Tech -108 / Arizona +3.5 -104; devigged Arizona probability is 49.5%.
- Most likely loss: Texas Tech's 25.3-second pace and home field turn its offense into a four-point-or-greater win.
Long Way Home- Season-to-date EPA favors Arizona: +0.27 offensive EPA/play and -0.07 defensive EPA allowed versus Texas Tech at +0.17 and +0.03.
- Recent form favors the underdog: Arizona is 5-0 with a +23.8 last-five scoring margin; Texas Tech is 4-1 at +14.8.
- Most likely loss: Texas Tech's home-field and rating edge converts Arizona's defensive absences into a margin of four or more.
- Arizona Wildcats to win−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
Key Number CFB- Arizona's 2026 regular-season efficiency is materially stronger: +0.27 offensive EPA/play and -0.06 defensive EPA/play versus Texas Tech's +0.17 and +0.03.
- Arizona's recent scoring margin is +23.8 per game over its last five versus Texas Tech's +14.8; the model makes Arizona's win chance 41.5%.
- Texas Tech's latest PFF card is stronger overall, 90.4 to 87.9, with a major defensive edge: 92.0 versus Arizona's 76.4.
ProphetX Pairs- Arizona's six FBS games average +0.27 offensive EPA/play versus Texas Tech's +0.15.
- Arizona allows +0.01 defensive EPA/play versus Texas Tech's +0.07; success rates are nearly even, 49.2% to 48.9%.
- Texas Tech announced Thomas Castellanos instead of expected starter Will Hammond shortly before kickoff; the lineup feed still showed Hammond at 8:00 AM and cfb_injury_x_signal had no mapped report.
Long Way Home- Arizona averages +0.27 offensive EPA/play and -0.06 defensive EPA/play; Texas Tech is +0.17 and +0.03.
- Arizona's adjusted SRS rating is 15.3 versus Texas Tech's 13.1; recent scoring-margin form is +23.8 versus +14.8 over the last five.
- Arizona has multiple defensive absences, including four listed Out and two Questionable players; expected lineups are not confirmed.
- Texas Tech Red Raiders to win+59%Won
Taken at −170 on FanDuel
2 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, Picks With Pink Grading SystemWhy 2 models like it
Brewing CFB Moneylines- Historical FPI-backed home favorites priced -200 to -150: 165-52, +42.58 units, 217-game sample across 2021-25.
- Texas Tech leads current FPI 16.53 to 13.33 and SP+ 18.4 to 16.0; both current power systems select Texas Tech.
- Arizona's last-10 offense EPA/play is 0.21 versus Texas Tech's 0.09, and its success rate is also higher.
Picks With Pink Grading System- Texas Tech grades 90.4 overall and 92.0 defense versus Arizona at 87.9 and 76.4.
- Texas Tech's L7 record is 6-1 with a +15.4 average margin; the model also accounts for Arizona's 6-1, +19.4 form.
- Texas Tech officially lists Jalen Jones and Malcolm Simmons Out, creating receiving-depth uncertainty.
- Over 54.5 total+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Raw Kalshi YES 0.51 is fractional; sanity-check is 51¢, implying 51.0% and approximately +96 American.
- Most likely loss: red-zone regression or stalled drives turns the high pace into field goals and keeps the game below 55.
- Game total over 54.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 23.9 projected drives from season averages of 11.4 Arizona and 12.4 Texas Tech; both offenses averaged at least 69.9 plays.
- Arizona posted +0.27 EPA/play, 50.3% success and 3.02 points/drive; Texas Tech posted +0.17, 49.4% and 2.61.
- 54.5 held across the sharp board; DraftKings over moved from -105 to -110, while Pinnacle stayed 54.5 (-106 over), a modest price signal without a line move.
- Arizona's defense allowed -0.07 EPA/play, and Texas Tech is coming off 24 points; a defensive game leaves the over vulnerable.
Show all 12 picks
- Texas Tech −3.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Early BirdUp 91% last 7 days - Micah Hudson over 1.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at −220 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5 of 6 2026 games cleared 1.5 receptions, including 4 of his last 5.
- Expected starter at LWR with 123 snaps over Texas Tech's last three charted games.
- College lineup is expected, not confirmed, despite current availability.
- Texas Tech Red Raiders spread −3.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- seven-game EPA matchup: Texas Tech offense +0.17/play vs Arizona defense +0.03 allowed; Arizona offense +0.27 vs Texas Tech defense -0.07 allowed.
- Success rates are close (Texas Tech 49.4%, Arizona 50.3%), but PFF defense favors Texas Tech 92.0 to 76.4, including coverage 90.8 to 73.6.
- Texas Tech's 25.33-second pace and home setting support defensive control against Arizona's more explosive but slower offense (28.12 seconds/play).
- Texas Tech's offense has the weaker current EPA profile (+0.17 vs Arizona +0.27); a repeat of its 24-point Cincinnati output threatens the cover.
- Arizona Wildcats +5.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season EPA: Arizona offense +0.27/play versus Texas Tech +0.17; defense allowed -0.06 versus +0.03.
- Arizona leads recent scoring margin: +23.8 over five games and +19.4 over seven, versus Texas Tech +14.8 and +15.4.
- Fair price is 59c; research quality 76/100; grade B because the expected edge is offset by lineup uncertainty.
- Ismail Mahdi is officially Questionable and absent from the expected Arizona running-back starters.
- Game total over 54+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days - Texas Tech wins by over 7.5 points (1H)−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 FBS regular-game margin SD is 16.41; square-root half-possession scaling gives first-half SD 11.60, not 8.21.
- TTU -3.5 full-game spread scales to a first-half mean near +1.75; model P(TTU >7.5) is 31.0%.
- Only a one-point probability edge; modest mean error overwhelms it.
Win chance, start to finish
50%TTUARIZKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Arizona vs. Texas Tech?
Texas Tech won 34-26 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.