North Dakota vs. Youngstown StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalStambaugh Stadium

North Dakota6–3

28–31Final

Youngstown State6–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	13	8	7	0	28
YOUN	7	0	14	10	31

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 61.5 57¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 4-2 on this game · +26% return

Game total under 61.5
+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
North Dakota Fighting Hawks +6.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- North Dakota’s recent defensive EPA allowed is +0.006/play versus Youngstown State’s +0.127.
- North Dakota’s PFF defense grade is 90.8 versus Youngstown State’s 80.8.
- The market eased from Youngstown State -6.5 to -5.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel; this supports the dog side.
- Youngstown State QB Beau Brungard owns a 91.9 PFF passing grade, 74.1% completion rate, and 9.14 yards per attempt.
North Dakota +6.5 spread
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- SRS rates North Dakota -11.3 versus Youngstown State -13.9 before home adjustment; 6.5 points is rich.
- North Dakota allows 0.006 EPA/play; Youngstown State allows 0.127, offsetting YSU's offensive advantage.
- Rejected YSU moneyline 66.5c, YSU -6.5 at 51.5c, and under 60.5 at 53c: weaker protection or price.
- North Dakota's quarterback and lineup are expected, not confirmed; no official FCS availability feed covers this game.
Game over 62.5 total points
−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Rule: over 62.5 wins at exactly 63; adjacent whole-number over 63 pushes at exactly 63.
- ProphetX self-quotes over 62.5 at 45.45¢ (+120 equivalent) versus over 63 at 70.15¢ (-235); the half-point contract is strictly superior on the key outcome.
- The 1.842% exact-63 mass is small; the advantage depends on the venue's internally inconsistent pair remaining real rather than a transient quote mismatch.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks to winFavorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 72¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Live offense has North Dakota at +0.4068 EPA/play and 58.3% success, versus Youngstown State at +0.0984 and 54.5%.
- My live projection makes North Dakota a 78% winner, above ProphetX's 71.83¢ price (-255); the mechanism is an efficiency gap larger than the scoreboard-only repricing.
- Youngstown State was the pregame favorite around North Dakota +6.5 at home; the baseline strength gap may still matter over the remaining half.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks spread +6.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 efficiency blend projects Youngstown State by roughly 3 points, below the 6.5-point spread.
- North Dakota averages 35.1 points; Youngstown State allows 23.1, supporting a competitive scoring profile.
- Youngstown State averages 39.1 points and 0.339 offensive EPA/play; explosive plays can create a seven-point margin.

Win chance, start to finish

50%YOUNNORTKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won North Dakota vs. Youngstown State?

The Youngstown State won 31–28 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.