UC Davis vs. Weber StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalStewart Stadium
UC Davis5–3
14–38Final
Weber State5–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| WEBE | 10 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 38 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 66.5 −110
Why Tempo Gap likes it: Fair total 63.5: projected ~135 combined plays versus 141.5 season average, with Weber's recent four-game pace at 63.8 plays.
Tempo GapUp 5% return this season · 85 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-5 on this game · −68% return
- UC Davis Aggies to win−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket
4 modelsCFB Heater, D1 Winner +2Why 4 models like it
CFB Heater- The 53¢ price leaves a modest signal margin; a one-score game can erase the momentum edge.
D1 Winner- Season efficiency favors UC Davis: +0.143 EPA/play offense vs +0.118, and +0.136 vs +0.165 defensive EPA allowed.
- QB/injury family leans UC Davis: Cleeland just went 25-of-33 for 266 yards and 2 TD; Weber has a day-to-day receiver and leg-tweak concern.
- Both lineups are expected rather than confirmed, and no official FCS injury report covers this game.
Heater Two-Hour- Both projected quarterbacks, Nate Dahle and Treynor Cleeland, remain unconfirmed expected starters.
Long Way Home- A win by more than 1.5 necessarily wins the moneyline, so the venue's stricter outcome is priced as more likely than the broader one.
- Most likely loss: Weber State's home field and defense turn the near-even matchup into a Wildcats win.
- Game total under 66.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on BetMGM
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 63.5: projected ~135 combined plays versus 141.5 season average, with Weber's recent four-game pace at 63.8 plays.
- Opponent-adjusted scoring estimate is about 12.6 UC Davis drives at 2.40 points/drive plus 13.0 Weber drives at 2.45, or 63.5 points.
- UC Davis and Weber average 0.143 and 0.118 offensive EPA/play; the matchup-adjusted efficiency is below the 66.5 benchmark despite strong raw offenses.
- UC Davis and Weber score 32.0 and 35.9 points per game, so ordinary finishing efficiency can still produce 67-plus.
- UC Davis Aggies spread +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UC Davis owns the stronger 2026 profile: +0.143 offensive EPA/play versus Weber +0.118, and +0.136 defensive EPA allowed versus +0.165.
- Last three: UC Davis offense averaged +0.269 EPA/play versus Weber +0.133; the recent offensive gap supports taking the points.
- Most likely loss: Weber's home-field advantage and recent defensive improvement produce a two-point-or-more Wildcats win.
Win chance, start to finish
50%WEBEUCKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won UC Davis vs. Weber State?
The Weber State won 38–14 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.