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Bucknell vs. LehighFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalGoodman Stadium
Bucknell1–7
30–31Final
Lehigh6–2
Score by period
Team1234T
BUCK7731330
LEHI0771731

Top model pick, graded

Won

Bucknell–Lehigh over 46.5 total 46¢

Why House Rules likes it: Over 46.5 wins at 47+ and cannot push; adjacent Over 47 pushes on exactly 47.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 2-5 on this game · −40% return

  1. Game total under 46.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Efficiency gap points toward a 43-point fair total: Lehigh offense +0.217 EPA/play, Bucknell offense -0.237.
    • Season scoring averages imply roughly 43 combined points: Lehigh 32.3/Bucknell 9.4, with defenses allowing 17.9/26.1.
    • Both teams have seven days’ rest; no short-week fatigue signal is pushing the total upward.
    • Lehigh’s offense can clear 40 by itself against a Bucknell defense allowing 26.1 points per game.
  2. Game total under 45.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 regular-season scoring sample: Lehigh 32.25 PF (SD 10.46) and Bucknell 9.38 PF (SD 5.95), projecting 41.63 total.
    • Independent normal approximation using those 16 team-game scoring observations gives 62.6% under 45.5, 6.1 points above DK -130 break-even.
    • EPA supports a one-sided scoring profile: Lehigh +0.217 offensive EPA/play versus Bucknell -0.237, while Bucknell averages only 0.816 points/drive.
    • The 8-game-per-team sample is small, not opponent-adjusted, and assumes independent approximately normal team-score variation.
  3. Game under 46.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 scoring baseline is 41.6 combined points: Bucknell 9.4 scored per game, Lehigh 32.3.
    • Bucknell's season offense is -0.237 EPA/play with a 38.4% success rate; Lehigh's defense allows -0.009 EPA/play.
    • Current sportsbook totals cluster 43.5, 45.5 after opening near 46.5, 47.5; the PM 46.5 under adds modest line protection.
    • Lehigh has scored 38, 44, and 45 in three earlier games; explosive plays or short fields can break the under.
  4. Bucknell–Lehigh over 46.5 total
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 46.5 wins at 47+ and cannot push; adjacent Over 47 pushes on exactly 47.
    • 203 of 10,371 completed CFB games (2014, 25) finished on exactly 47 points: 1.957% empirical push mass.
    • ProphetX quotes Over 46.5 at +118 (45.87¢) versus Over 47 at -113 (53.05¢); the easier outcome is priced far worse despite the 47-point push.
    • The 1.957% estimate pools CFB games across divisions and seasons; this is not an FCS-specific rate.
  5. Bucknell Bison spread +25.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Margin density: exact 26 occurred 103 times; ProphetX charges only 0.97 probability points from +26.5 to +25.5.
    • Lehigh’s current form supports a strong favorite, but the model treats the 26.5 spread as slightly inflated against Bucknell’s cushion.
    • Lehigh averages +14.4 points per game while Bucknell averages -16.8, a substantial matchup gap.
  6. Lehigh Mountain Hawks spread −26.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, Lehigh has +0.217 offensive EPA/play versus Bucknell's -0.237 through eight games.
    • Lehigh averages 32.25 points and a +14.38 margin; Bucknell averages 9.38 points and a -16.75 margin.
    • The 31.1-point profile gap is 4.6 points above the -26.5 spread; ProphetX -104 implies about 51%.
    • Most likely loss: Lehigh wins comfortably but stalls short of a 27-point margin.
Show all 7 picks
  1. total points under 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, eight-game scoring averages project approximately 42.8 total points, 4.7 below 47.5.
    • Bucknell averages 9.38 points and -0.237 offensive EPA/play across eight games.
    • Lehigh averages 32.25 points but scored 18 last week and allowed 38-plus in two recent games.
    • Most likely loss: Lehigh reaches 38-plus while Bucknell contributes 10-plus, pushing the game over 47.5.

Win chance, start to finish

50%LEHIBUCKKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Bucknell vs. Lehigh?

The Lehigh won 31–30 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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