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Western Illinois vs. Charleston SouthernFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBuccaneer Field
Western Illinois4–4
42–35Final
Charleston Southern4–4
Score by period
Team1234T
WEST7721742
CHAR7771435

Top model pick, graded

Won

Western Illinois Leathernecks to win −105

Why NFL Sharp Edge likes it: Season EPA profile: Western Illinois +0.168 offensive EPA/play versus Charleston Southern -0.110.

NFL Sharp EdgeDown 8% this season · 112 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-0 on this game · +95% return

  1. Western Illinois Leathernecks to win4 models agree
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on Fliff

    4 modelsNFL Sharp Edge, D1 Winner +2
    Why 4 models like it
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • Season EPA profile: Western Illinois +0.168 offensive EPA/play versus Charleston Southern -0.110.
    • Western Illinois leads recent five-game offense EPA 0.214 to -0.105 and success rate 49.6% to 42.5%.
    • The SRS gap favors Western Illinois by 10.3 points, but this is an FCS sample with schedule-strength uncertainty.
    D1 Winner
    • SRS rates Western Illinois -24.5 versus Charleston Southern -34.8, a 10.3-point team-quality gap.
    • Recent EPA/play is +0.168 for WIU versus -0.110 for Charleston Southern; success rate is .490 versus .411.
    • Both teams are FCS and the market signal is thin; exchange movement is only mild confirmation, not strong RLM evidence.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Last-eight EPA: Western Illinois +0.168 offensive / -0.0296 defensive allowed versus Charleston Southern -0.110 / -0.052; success rate 49.0% versus 41.1%.
    • Last-eight points per drive favor Western Illinois 2.593 to 1.393; PFF overall grades also favor Western Illinois 88.5 to 83.1.
    • The expected lineup is not official and has no observation timestamp; FCS injury reporting does not cover either team, so quarterback availability is unresolved.
    Long Way Home
    • Western Illinois leads the season profile in success rate (49.0% to 41.1%), explosiveness (14.4% to 10.2%), and scoring (34.5 to 23.4 points).
    • Recent five-game scoring-margin form favors Western Illinois, +16.4 per game versus Charleston Southern +9.8, despite the near-pick'em market.
    • Most likely loss: Charleston Southern's home field and stronger season defensive EPA allowance (-0.052 versus Western Illinois -0.030) control the matchup.
  2. Western Illinois Leathernecks +1.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Research grade 74/100 (B): SRS is -24.5 for WIU versus -34.8 for CSU, a 10.3-point neutral-field gap.
    • PFF team grade favors WIU 88.5-83.1; the offense gap is 73.6-64.9 while defenses are nearly even.
    • Last-10 EPA: WIU offense +0.078/play and 46.1% success versus CSU -0.1555/play and 39.9%.
    • Only eight 2026 games per team; the pooled margin distribution includes several extreme blowouts and is very wide.
  3. Western Illinois −1.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Western Illinois averages +0.168 offensive EPA/play versus Charleston Southern -0.110, with a .490 versus .411 success-rate edge.
    • Western Illinois also leads explosive rate .144 to .102 and PFF offense 73.6 to 64.9; its defense grades nearly level.
    • Key-number density: exact 3-point margins occur 1,056/11,423 (9.2%), versus 2.6% at 2 and 3.3% at 4, favoring value on the side reaching 3.
    • McGill and Echols are expected, not officially confirmed; both QB identities are supported by last-game pass-attempt leadership and same-day official team reports.
  4. Western Illinois Leathernecks spread +1.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Western Illinois leads Charleston Southern in 2026 average offensive EPA/play, 0.168 to -0.110.
    • Western Illinois leads in success rate, 49.0% to 41.1%, and average margin, +9.4 to +2.6, across eight games.
    • The market makes this nearly pick'em, but the season efficiency gap supports an estimated 59% chance of covering the main +1.5.
    • The eight-game efficiency sample includes mismatched opponents and may overstate Western Illinois' edge.

Win chance, start to finish

50%CHARWESTKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Western Illinois vs. Charleston Southern?

The Western Illinois won 42–35 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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