South Dakota vs. South Dakota StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDana J. Dykhouse Stadium
South Dakota7-2
21–31Final
South Dakota State6-2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 21 |
| SOUT | 7 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 54.5 −110
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Last-five proxy under 54.5: South Dakota 2/5, SDSU 5/5; pooled 7/10 with no pushes.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −36% return
- Game total under 54.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- Last-five proxy under 54.5: South Dakota 2/5, SDSU 5/5; pooled 7/10 with no pushes.
- SDSU allowed -0.03 EPA/play recently; South Dakota allowed +0.11, supporting SDSU control and lower scoring.
- Season exact-line under is 8/17 (47%): South Dakota 2/9, SDSU 6/8; season rates are contradictory.
CFB HunterV2- Model probability 57.5%; nearby Pinnacle total implies roughly 50.4% under after de-vigging.
- South Dakota State allowed -0.03 EPA/play across its last eight; its defense is the matchup anchor.
- Both offenses carry explosive-play rates of 14.9% or higher, creating touchdown-driven tail risk.
- South Dakota Coyotes to win−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
BETALAB 6.0- SRS rates South Dakota -11.5 versus SDSU -12.5; the neutral-field rating baseline favors the Coyotes by 1.0 point.
- South Dakota leads current-season offense: 0.28 versus 0.25 EPA/play, 53.1% versus 50.6% success, 16.8% versus 14.9% explosive rate.
- SDSU's defense is materially better: -0.03 defensive EPA/play allowed versus South Dakota's +0.06.
Long Way Home- 2026 SRS rates South Dakota -11.5 versus South Dakota State -12.5, only a 1-point Jackrabbits edge.
- Coyotes lead season offensive EPA/play (.281 to .251), success rate (.531 to .506), and explosive rate (.168 to .149).
- South Dakota State's defense is materially better: 15.75 points allowed per game versus South Dakota's 24.22.
- South Dakota Coyotes over 52.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 31-25 (56.0): 3.5 points above FanDuel’s exact 52.5.
- Average current-season pace is 63.2 Coyotes plays and 70.8 Jackrabbits plays per game.
- Opponent-adjusted offensive EPA is +0.16 for SDSU and +0.13 for South Dakota; both offenses clear zero.
- No captured opener or movement history; current board is dispersed at 52.5 FanDuel, 54.5 DraftKings, and 55 Pinnacle.
- Total points over 53.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full-season averages are 37.1 points for South Dakota State and 37.7 for South Dakota; blending offense with opposing defensive averages projects about 57.4 points.
- Both offenses average strong explosive-play rates: South Dakota State 14.9% and South Dakota 16.8%, supporting multiple scoring paths.
- Most likely loss: one offense stalls and the game finishes at 53 points or fewer.
Win chance, start to finish
50%SOUTSOUTKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won South Dakota vs. South Dakota State?
South Dakota State won 31-21 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.