Nevada vs. UCLAFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalRose Bowl
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UCLA | 10 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTy Dieffenbach under 1.5 passing touchdowns −190
Why NFL Sharp Edge likes it: Dieffenbach's last three passing-TD results are 1, 0, 1; the under has cashed twice.
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 8% this season · 112 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-6 on this game · −40% return
- Nevada Wolf Pack spread +22.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- game FBS sample: Nevada's offense is +0.052 EPA/play versus UCLA's -0.123 defensive EPA allowed; the matchup gap is +0.175.
- UCLA's offense is +0.116 EPA/play against Nevada's -0.025 defensive EPA allowed, only a +0.141 matchup gap; the efficiency gap does not justify 22.5 points.
- Most likely loss: UCLA's 91.2 PFF defense and Rose Bowl home field turn its +19.1 average margin into a 23-plus-point win.
Long Way Home- Nevada's last-seven margin is +4.3 versus UCLA's +19.1, a 14.8-point gap still below the 22.5-point spread.
- Listed 2026 offensive EPA averages are nearly identical: Nevada +0.052 versus UCLA +0.063.
- Most likely loss: UCLA's defense suppresses Nevada again and the Bruins win by 23 or more.
- Ty Dieffenbach under 1.5 passing touchdowns+53%Won
Taken at −190 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dieffenbach's last three passing-TD results are 1, 0, 1; the under has cashed twice.
- UCLA could score two passing touchdowns before the game becomes a blowout.
- Semaj Morgan over 4.5 receptions+98%Won
Taken at −102 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 29.0% target share latest (9/31), after 26.1% (6/23) and 14.7% (5/34); 3-game share CV is 26%.
- 94.4% season route rate across 7 games; expected SRWR role logged 133 snaps across the last 3.
- Mikey Matthews and Jonah Smith are Out; receiver concentration supports Morgan, while UCLA averaged 78 offensive plays in the last 3.
- Most likely loss: UCLA leads comfortably, shifts to its running backs, and Morgan loses fourth-quarter routes or targets.
- Game total over 43−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- game FBS sample: Nevada averages +0.052 EPA/play and UCLA +0.116; both offenses remain positive.
- Nevada and UCLA average 26.3 and 34.4 points; recent 10-game points per drive are 2.191 and 2.125.
- QB gate cleared: Luke Duncan and Ty Dieffenbach led the latest passing boxes; current reporting confirms both starters and Carter Jones out.
- Most likely loss: UCLA's -0.123 defensive EPA/play suppresses Nevada while the slower Bruins pace produces 43 or fewer.
- Game over 42.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season offenses average 60.7 combined points; defenses allow 37.3 combined points.
- Offense-defense blend projects approximately 49.0 points, 6.5 above the traded total.
- Seven-game EPA: UCLA offense +0.116 and defense -0.123; Nevada offense +0.052 and defense -0.025.
- Nevada quarterback uncertainty can reduce pace and finishing; UCLA allows only 15.3 points per game.
- Game over 34.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 74¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX quotes both over 34.5 and over 35 at -285, or 74.03c; the half-point contract is strictly better at the same price.
- No projection edge: the game must reach at least 35 points, and the market's scoring expectation could still be wrong.
Show all 8 picks
- UCLA Bruins spread −21.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UCLA leads 2026 offense EPA/play 0.1161 to 0.0524 and defense EPA allowed -0.1232 to -0.0250; average margins are +19.14 versus +4.29.
- PFF team grades favor UCLA 90.1 overall and 91.2 defense versus Nevada 82.1 and 83.0; sharp context centers UCLA around -22 to -22.5.
- Personnel gate passed: latest boxes lead with Ty Dieffenbach (31 attempts) and Luke Duncan (29), while current game previews identify Dieffenbach's third straight start and Duncan as expected to start.
- Most likely loss: UCLA wins by 21 or fewer, including a Nevada backdoor score after the game script is decided.
- Semaj Morgan over 50.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Exact 50.5-yard form: 5 overs, 2 unders, 0 pushes in seven 2026 games.
- Nevada's -0.025 defensive EPA allowed ranks 57th-best of 267; lower allowed EPA is favorable.
- UCLA's current depth chart lists Morgan at WR-SL; expected-lineup data shows 133 snaps across his last three games.
- Only seven comparable 2026 games, not a complete L10; fallback sample caps conviction LOW.
Win chance, start to finish
50%UCLANEVKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Nevada vs. UCLA?
The UCLA won 27–0 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.