The Citadel vs. MercerFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFive Star Stadium
The Citadel2–6
19–28Final
Mercer6–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE | 7 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| MERC | 0 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMercer Bears to win 89¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Mercer is 6-2 with +108 points; Citadel is 2-6 with -122 and far weaker EPA and team grades.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · −12% return
- Mercer Bears to win+12%Won
Taken at 89¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Mercer is 6-2 with +108 points; Citadel is 2-6 with -122 and far weaker EPA and team grades.
- No official FCS lineup or injury feed covers this game; expected starters have null availability observations.
Long Way Home- Mercer is 6-2 versus The Citadel's 2-6; the pregame Mercer -17.5 baseline still matters after one quarter.
- The Citadel's lead came on one 40-yard touchdown run; its 90 yards on 14 plays is a noisy early sample.
- Most likely loss: Mercer remains offensively stalled and The Citadel converts its early lead into a controlled upset.
- Mercer Bears −16.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mercer’s 2026 team grade is 91.3 versus Citadel’s 62.1; defense grades are 91.6 versus 65.2.
- Last-8 scoring margin is Mercer +13.5 per game versus Citadel -15.2; Mercer also has 14 rest days versus 7.
- EPA profile favors Mercer: offense +0.1298/play and defense -0.0547 allowed versus Citadel offense +0.0009 and defense +0.1499 allowed.
- Mercer’s recent efficiency sample includes 62-3 and 54-3 wins, so aggregate form may overstate its typical matchup edge.
- Total points under 50.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mercer averaged 30.6 scored and 17.1 allowed through eight games; Citadel averaged 18.5 scored and 33.8 allowed.
- Citadel scored 13 and 0 in its last two; its latest offensive EPA per play was -0.181.
- Mercer has scored 54 and 62 this season; a mismatch or short fields can erase the under.
- Mercer Bears spread −17.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mercer averages +0.130 offensive EPA/play versus Citadel's +0.001, while its defensive EPA allowed is -0.055 versus Citadel's +0.150.
- Mercer averages 30.6 points and a +13.5 margin; Citadel averages 18.5 points and a -15.25 margin through eight games.
- Recent form is 4-1, +9.6 average margin for Mercer versus 1-4, -18.0 for Citadel.
- Most likely loss: Mercer wins but by 17 or fewer after Citadel's defense keeps the game within one score late.
Win chance, start to finish
50%MERCTHEKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won The Citadel vs. Mercer?
The Mercer won 28–19 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.