Southern Miss vs. UL MonroeFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMalone Stadium

Southern Miss2–5

35–21Final

UL Monroe1–6

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
USM	0	10	17	8	35
ULM	0	0	7	14	21

Top model pick, graded

Won

Southern Miss Golden Eagles to win 61¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 15-6 on this game · +33% return

Southern Miss Golden Eagles to win6 models agree
+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket
6 modelsCFB Heater, Brewing CFB Moneylines +4
Why 6 models like it
CFB Heater
- Southern Miss is only 2-5 and UL Monroe 1-6; recent form is poor on both sides, increasing game variance.
Brewing CFB Moneylines
- FPI rating gap is 11.66 points: Southern Miss -13.307 versus ULM -24.966.
- Last-10 opponent-adjusted EPA/play favors Southern Miss 0.0657 to 0.0283; defensive EPA allowed favors Southern Miss 0.1277 to 0.2240.
- Both teams are poor overall: Southern Miss is 2-5 and ULM is 1-6, increasing game-to-game variance.
D1 Winner
- Efficiency family favors Southern Miss: per-play EPA +0.0075 vs ULM -0.0428; defensive EPA allowed +0.134 vs +0.221.
- External validation: FPI ratings are -13.3 Southern Miss vs -25.0 ULM; SP ratings are -16.0 vs -24.2.
- Southern Miss is 2-5 and its road defensive EPA allowed is +0.298, materially worse than its home split.
Picks With Pink Grading System
- Current ratings favor Southern Miss by 11.659 FPI points, 8.2 SP points, and 6.5 SRS points on neutral-field scales.
- Through 7 games, Southern Miss has 0.105 offensive EPA/play and 0.146 defensive EPA/play allowed versus ULM's 0.054 and 0.245.
- Southern Miss is only 2-5 through 7 games and ULM is 1-6; both records create substantial variance despite the rating gap.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles spread −3.55 models agree
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
5 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs +3
Why 5 models like it
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Load-bearing efficiency gap: Southern Miss .105 EPA/play offense, .146 defensive EPA allowed and 1.97 points/drive versus ULM .054, .245 and 1.58; Southern also averages 72.7 versus 67.9 plays.
- Most likely loss: ULM's home field and Southern Miss's .146 defensive EPA allowed produce a Warhawks upset or one-score win.
Saturday Board Pairs
- PROJECTION, seven-game FBS sample: Southern Miss averages +0.105 EPA/play against ULM's +0.245 defensive EPA/play allowed, a major matchup gap.
- Southern Miss leads success rate .469 to .436 and explosive rate .1285 to .1085; its offense also works 20.28 seconds/play versus ULM's 26.75.
- Most likely loss: ULM's home field and Southern Miss's +0.146 defensive EPA allowed produce enough offense for a Warhawks win or a three-point game.
Key Number CFB
- Same ladder quotes Southern -4.5 at -150 / 60.00c and -5.5 at -138 / 57.98c; harder rungs are richer.
- CFB margin histogram: exact 4 occurred 335 times versus 955 exact 3s; crossing -3.5 to -4.5 should lose mass, not gain 11 points.
- Most likely loss: Southern Miss wins by three or fewer, or UL Monroe wins outright.
Long Way Home
- Southern Miss owns the stronger 2026 profile: +0.105 offensive EPA/play and 46.9% success versus ULM's +0.054 and 43.6%.
- ULM's defense has allowed +0.245 EPA/play and 37.3 points per game, compared with Southern Miss at +0.146 and 32.4.
- Most likely loss: ULM wins the short-field and turnover battle, or Southern Miss wins by only 1-3 points.
Over 56.5 total
−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model total mean is 57.7 points; conservative post-check fair probability for Over 56.5 is 51.8%.
- Southern Miss and UL Monroe average 72.4 and 67.9 plays, respectively; approximately 140 combined plays supports the number of chances.
- Current points-per-drive averages are 1.97 and 1.58, while current scoring averages combine to 57.7 points; explosive rates average about 12.3% and 11.1%.
- Most likely loss: stalled drives or poor red-zone conversion leave the game at 56 or fewer points.
Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe over 55.5 total
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
Southern Miss Golden Eagles −3.5
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Efficiency convergence: Southern Miss leads 2026 per-play EPA, success rate, and defensive EPA allowed against ULM.
- The FPI gap is 11.7 rating points and the SP gap is 8.2 points toward Southern Miss.
- The cover edge is sensitive to the model's projected margin and college football scoring variance around a key 3.5 number.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles −1.5
+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 FPI favors Southern Miss by 11.659 rating points; SRS also favors Southern Miss by 6.5 points.
- Recent 10-game offense EPA/play is 0.0657 for Southern Miss versus 0.0283 for ULM; ULM's defense allowed 0.224 EPA/play.
- Both teams are losing in 2026: Southern Miss 2-5 and ULM 1-6; the current-season samples are limited.

Show all 12 picks

UL Monroe Warhawks +3.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book-level count is 3-3; the read qualifies on the two stronger measures, with several hundred dollars on the thin side.
- Directional check: backing UL Monroe +3.5, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides show 3 levels.
Game total over 54.5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- CFB histogram: exact 55 occurred 435 times versus 212 at 54 and 190 at 56; the over-54.5 to over-55 quote drop is only 1.69 points, below the 55-point mass.
- cross-matching season scoring and defensive EPA rates projects roughly 57.8 points before the slow-pace adjustment.
- Southern Miss offense averages 0.1051 EPA/play; UL Monroe allows 0.2448, while Southern Miss allows 0.1463 and ULM scores 20.1 points per game.
- Most likely loss: the game finishes 54 or fewer; season scoring averages combine for only 45.9 points per game.
Total Points under 54
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 seven-game scoring averages total 45.9 points: Southern Miss 25.7 and UL Monroe 20.1; both FBS samples clear the three-game coverage gate.
- Cleaned Southern Miss pace is about 23.0 seconds/play after removing one 3.81-second feed outlier; UL Monroe averages 26.75, with PROE +15.2%/+13.3%, explosiveness 12.8%/10.8%, and success 46.9%/43.6%.
- QB gate cleared: latest pass leaders were Landry Lyddy and Aidan Armenta; a current Fox Sports game listing names both as the starting quarterbacks.
- Most likely loss: both defenses allow positive EPA per play, Southern Miss +0.146 and UL Monroe +0.245 on average, creating short fields and a 55-plus shootout.
Game total under 54.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- seven-game 2026 FBS sample: Southern Miss averages 25.7 points and UL Monroe 20.1, a 45.8-point baseline below 54.5.
- Pace, Southern Miss averages 20.28 seconds/play and UL Monroe 26.75; despite positive PROE (+15.2% and +13.2%), the matchup projects limited possessions.
- Recent form, the teams’ last-five scoring averages are 24.6 and 21.6; the latest meeting-week boxes were led by Landry Lyddy and Aidan Armenta.
- Both defenses are permissive: Southern Miss allows +0.1463 EPA/play and UL Monroe +0.2448, so finishing efficiency can overturn the low-scoring baseline.
Game over 27.5 first-half points
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- pace: 20.28 and 26.75 seconds/play blend to 23.52; 140.29 combined plays per game.
- Drive ledger: 12.57 Southern Miss plus 12.14 ULM drives; 12.35 raw first-half drives, 3% stoppage haircut leaves 11.98.
- No independent same-rung sharp first-half total; the derived reference makes this LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
Total points under 54.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 scoring averages sum to 45.9 points: Southern Miss 25.7 and UL Monroe 20.1.
- UL Monroe’s offense averages 0.054 EPA/play and 43.6% success, limiting its baseline path to 30-plus points.
- Both defenses have been vulnerable: Southern Miss allows 32.4 points per game and UL Monroe 37.3.

Win chance, start to finish

50%ULMUSMKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe?

The Southern Miss won 35–21 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.