Northwestern vs. OregonFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAutzen Stadium

Northwestern6–1

26–34Final

Oregon4–3

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
NU	10	10	3	3	26
ORE	3	10	7	14	34

Top model pick, graded

Won

Oregon Ducks to win 64¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 15-14 on this game · −0% return

Oregon Ducks to win6 models agree
+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket
6 modelsCFB Heater, EPA Mismatch +4
Why 6 models like it
CFB Heater
- Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is officially out, a material downgrade to the home offense.
EPA Mismatch
- FPI rates Oregon +17.017 versus Northwestern +13.855; the model projects Oregon by 7.314 points.
- PFF grades favor Oregon overall 91.1-88.3 and especially on defense 92.7-82.4.
- Northwestern's season offense EPA is much stronger: +0.289 per play versus Oregon's +0.041.
Picks With Pink Grading System
- FanDuel -166 implies 62.4%; exact-line projection edge is +5.6 percentage points.
- Oregon’s 92.7 defensive grade leads Northwestern’s 82.4; ESPN projects Oregon by 7.314 points.
- Oregon is 3-2 over its last five with +17.6 margin, while Northwestern is 4-1 with +15.4; recent form conflicts with the model.
CFB HunterV2
- FPI projects Oregon by 7.314 points while the market spread is only 3.5.
- Oregon's 92.7 team grade is 10.3 points above Northwestern's 82.4, led by defense.
- Oregon's recent offense produced only +0.096 EPA/play versus Northwestern's +0.296.
Northwestern Wildcats spread +3.54 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
4 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines +2
Why 4 models like it
Saturday Board
- Most likely loss: Oregon's Autzen edge and improved execution turn a close game into a four-point-or-more Ducks win.
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Load-bearing efficiency gap: Northwestern averages +0.289 offensive EPA/play and 3.07 points/drive versus Oregon's +0.041 and 2.60; discounting Oregon's 84-0 FCS outlier also supports the Northwestern side.
- Most likely loss: Oregon's home field and -0.114 defensive EPA allowed suppress Northwestern's offense enough for a four-point-plus Ducks win.
Saturday Board Pairs
- PROJECTION, seven-game FBS sample: Northwestern posts +0.289 off EPA/play versus Oregon's -0.114 defensive EPA allowed; Oregon is +0.041 versus Northwestern's -0.025.
- Northwestern leads current success rate .525 to .470 and explosive rate .184 to .132; the matchup read favors the underdog despite Oregon's stronger defense.
- Most likely loss: Oregon's 92.7 PFF defense and Autzen home field contain Northwestern, with the Ducks winning by four or more.
Long Way Home
- Northwestern averages +0.289 offensive EPA/play and 52.5% success; Oregon averages +0.041 and 47.0%.
- Northwestern is 6-1 with a +18.1 recent scoring margin; Oregon is 4-3 with +12.4.
- Most likely loss: Oregon’s home-field edge and defense suppress Northwestern, producing an Oregon win by four or more.
Northwestern Wildcats to win3 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsResting Money, ProphetX Pairs +1
Why 3 models like it
Resting Money
- ProphetX self-reference is the entire signal; there is no independent ticket or handle confirmation.
ProphetX Pairs
- filtered 2026 offense favors Northwestern: +0.282 EPA/play and 52.0% success versus Oregon -0.055 and 43.4%.
- Defensive EPA is essentially even: Northwestern -0.034 versus Oregon -0.029 allowed per play; Oregon's home/name premium appears over-weighted.
- College lineups remain expected rather than official; a late quarterback change would materially alter the projection.
Saturday Board Pairs
- seven-game 2026 FBS sample: Northwestern leads Oregon in offensive EPA/play, +0.2890 to +0.0406, and success rate, .5252 to .4697.
- Matchup efficiency favors Northwestern's offense: its +0.2890 EPA/play meets Oregon's strong -0.1137 defensive EPA allowed, while Oregon's offense has only a +0.0657 EPA/play matchup edge against Northwestern's -0.0251 defense.
- Most likely loss: Oregon's 92.7 PFF defense, 90.4 coverage grade, and Autzen home field contain Northwestern's efficient offense.
Total points under 47.52 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsLong Way Home, Tempo Board
Why 2 models like it
Long Way Home
- Oregon's last three totals were 31, 31, and 32; its offense posted negative EPA/play in all three games.
- Oregon scored only 10, 17, and 15 points in those games, while Northwestern's last-three offensive EPA/play marks were positive.
- Most likely loss: Northwestern's depleted defensive front cannot slow Oregon's offense, creating explosive plays and a 48-plus total.
Tempo Board
- Seven-game 2026 samples: Northwestern averages 29.7 clean seconds/play, 3.5% PROE, 18.4% explosive plays and 52.5% success; Oregon averages 24.4, 15.8%, 13.2% and 47.0%.
- Scoring drag is matchup-specific: Oregon's recent 10-game defense allows -0.0749 EPA/play, while Oregon scored 10, 17 and 15 in its last three.
- Most likely loss: Northwestern's 18.4% explosive rate travels and Oregon rebounds to 28-plus points, pushing the game to 48 or higher.
Northwestern Wildcats @ Oregon Ducks total under 47.5
−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Full coverage: both teams have seven usable 2026 games; opponent-adjusted projection is Oregon 23.5, Northwestern 21.0, fair total 44.5.
- Oregon's defense allows -0.127 EPA/play, while Oregon's last three totals were 31, 31, and 32 points; the model suppresses Northwestern's efficient offense to 21 points.
- Raiola's return creates more Oregon upside, and Oregon could score efficiently against Northwestern's defense.
Over 47.5 total
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model total mean is 50.0 with approximately 14.5-point SD; fair Over 47.5 is 56.8%.
- Northwestern and Oregon average 68.7 and 71.2 FBS plays, respectively, about 139.8 combined chances.
- The matchup blend uses Northwestern's 3.07 and Oregon's 1.95 current points per drive plus 18.2% Northwestern explosive rate; both teams' FBS game-total averages are 51.2 and 48.8.
- The six-game FBS samples include blowout and garbage-time contamination; the opponent adjustment and scoring blend may still overstate normal efficiency.

Show all 18 picks

Game total over 47.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
Game 1st-quarter total over 10.5
+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 54% model probability versus a 40% substitute Kalshi devig reference.
- Projected first-half scoring of roughly 27 points implies about 12-14 first-quarter points under the desk's 45-50% opening-quarter conversion.
- Northwestern averaged 8.2 first-quarter points over its latest five; Oregon averaged 9.8, with both offenses showing explosive early-script upside.
- The latest-four-game combined first-quarter average is only about 12.5 points after removing Oregon's 28-point Portland State outlier.
Game 1st-half total over 20.5
+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 69% model probability versus a 62% substitute Kalshi devig reference.
- Northwestern averaged 17.2 first-half points across its latest five games; Oregon averaged 15.8 across its latest five, including a 49-point outlier.
- Recent pace and success profiles support enough early possessions: Northwestern averaged 67.2 plays and Oregon 72.0 across their latest five.
- The model's 27-point first-half projection is only about 6.5 points above the line; one empty red-zone trip can erase the edge.
Northwestern Wildcats 1st-half winner
+163%Won
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 47% model probability versus a 37% three-way Kalshi devig reference.
- Northwestern averaged 0.296 offensive EPA/play and 52% success rate across its latest five games.
- Oregon averaged -0.096 offensive EPA/play across its latest three games; Northwestern's recent opening scripts have been more efficient.
- Oregon has home field and the full-game market still makes the Ducks roughly a 63% favorite.
Northwestern Wildcats +4.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Northwestern: 0.289 EPA/play, 52.5% success, 0.184 explosive rate; Oregon: 0.041, 47.0%, 0.132.
- Oregon’s defense is elite, but +4.5 supplies 1 point of protection beyond the captured Oregon -3.5 market.
- Oregon’s home defense grades 92.7 overall and 90.4 in coverage, creating real blowout risk.
Game total over 47
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Over 47 and over 47.5 are both -115; over 47 adds push protection at exactly 47 for no price cost.
- CFB histogram records 221 exact 47-point totals and 331 exact 48-point totals; the adjacent rung gap is not flat.
- recent score blend centers above 47; Pinnacle also prices over 47.5 at -114.
- Most likely loss: the game finishes 46 or fewer; exact 47 is a push, not a win.
Total Points under 48.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Possession read is moderate after removing obvious pace-feed errors: Northwestern's usable pace is about 29.7 seconds/play and Oregon's about 24.4, while PROE is +3.6% and +15.8%.
- QB gate cleared: Aidan Chiles led Northwestern's latest pass attempts and was listed as the starter in same-day coverage; Oregon officially named Dylan Raiola after Dante Moore was ruled out.
- Most likely loss: Northwestern's explosive offense repeatedly wins against Oregon's depleted or vulnerable spots, while Oregon converts enough drives with Raiola to push past 48.5.
Northwestern Wildcats +3.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- across six 2026 FBS-opponent games, Northwestern leads offensive EPA/play 0.282 to Oregon -0.055.
- Northwestern also leads success rate 52.0% to 43.4% and explosive rate 18.2% to 12.8%.
- Pinnacle shows Oregon -3.5 at -115 / Northwestern +3.5 at +102; ProphetX offers the better dog price.
- Oregon has home field and a stronger FPI overall rating, 17.0 versus Northwestern's 13.9.
Oregon Ducks −5.5
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Novig
Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle's live -3.5 spread de-vigs to 51.9% Oregon; the rung is two points from the anchor and crosses no listed key.
- The 5.9-point gap is close to the six-cent stale-quote screen and only modestly above the 3.5-point entry bar.
Northwestern Wildcats over 2.5 first-half marginLong shot
+194%Won
Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle’s full-game Oregon -3.5 provides a market-anchored first-half mean of +1.75 Oregon points.
- DERIVED REFERENCE at the exact +2.5 rung, 3,681 2023, 26 FBS regular-season finals have margin SD 15.22; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 10.77, not 7.61.
- The smooth N(+1.75, 10.77²) estimate gives Northwestern over 2.5 about 34.6%; the 3-point mass (362 of 3,681) lifts the discrete read to roughly 36%.
- First-half dispersion is inferred from full-game margin data; possession independence and half-game symmetry are assumptions.
Caleb Komolafe under 61.5 rushing yards
−100%Lost
Taken at −116 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model 60.0% vs FanDuel 53.7% implied: +6.3 percentage points, +11.7% relative.
- 2026 exact line: under 61.5 in 4 of 7 games, 4-3 with no pushes; the sample is short of L10.
- Oregon allows -0.114 defensive EPA/play, 11th of 100 qualifying teams; lower is better.
- Comparable 2025 exact-line result was under 61.5 in 4 of 12 games; fallback form caps conviction LOW.
Game over 23.5 first-half points
+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game total is 47.5, used only through the derived same-rung calculation.
- Valid six-game pace window: Northwestern 65.2 plays at 29.70 seconds/play; Oregon 75.2 at 24.38.
- Warehouse weather gust and precipitation are null; no possession cut is verified or applied.

Win chance, start to finish

50%ORENUKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Northwestern vs. Oregon?

The Oregon won 34–26 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.