Villanova vs. LafayetteFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFisher Stadium
Villanova4–4
44–21Final
Lafayette3–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VILL | 17 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 44 |
| LAFA | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Top model pick, graded
WonVillanova Wildcats to win −290
Why NFL Sharp Edge likes it: Villanova's 2026 offense: +0.111 EPA/play, 48.9% success, 2.36 points/drive versus Lafayette's +0.069, 42.3%, 1.96.
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 8% this season · 112 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +36% return
- Villanova Wildcats spread −7.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
BETALAB 6.0- Season margin favors Villanova by 2.5 points; recent five-game EPA offense edge is 0.0645 per play.
- Villanova leads PFF overall 84.6, 77.0, passing 90.0, 60.8, and defense 88.3, 74.5.
- Both teams have negative season margins; this is a modest-strength FCS profile, not an elite mismatch.
Long Way Home- Villanova's road offense averages +0.094 EPA/play versus Lafayette's home +0.040.
- Villanova's road success rate is 49.5%, 6.6 points above Lafayette's home 42.9%.
- Villanova's defensive profile has been volatile, including a 59-point allowed game; Lafayette can stay inside the number.
- Villanova Wildcats to win+34%Won
Taken at −290 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Villanova's 2026 offense: +0.111 EPA/play, 48.9% success, 2.36 points/drive versus Lafayette's +0.069, 42.3%, 1.96.
- Villanova leads recent PFF overall grade 84.6-77.0, with a 90.0-60.8 passing-grade edge.
- Expected QB Pat McQuaide has 1,764 yards, 9 TDs and 6 interceptions; Lafayette's expected Eddie Jordan has 432 yards and 1 TD in the logged sample.
- Lafayette's recent defense has been slightly better by EPA allowed: 0.103 versus Villanova's 0.128.
- Lafayette Leopards +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2014, 25 CFB data: exact 7-point final margin occurred 821 times, 7.916% of recorded games.
- ProphetX prices adjacent Lafayette rungs +7.5 at 51.22c (-105) and +7 at 50.25c (-101): only a 0.97-point gap versus 7.916% push mass.
- The 7.916% rate is all-game CFB margin mass, not this matchup’s or Lafayette’s side-specific rate.
Win chance, start to finish
50%LAFAVILLKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Villanova vs. Lafayette?
The Villanova won 44–21 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.