Maine vs. Rhode IslandFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCentreville Bank Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| RHOD | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMaine Black Bears spread +10.5 −110
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Research grade 72/100 (B): qualifies on projection, price, recent form, and market movement; no validated weights invented.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-1 on this game · +52% return
- Maine Black Bears spread +10.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Research grade 72/100 (B): qualifies on projection, price, recent form, and market movement; no validated weights invented.
- Independent normal model: matchup margin mean URI -7.6 with 14.3-point SD; Maine covers +10.5 at 58.0%.
- Maine's eight-game margin average is -16.25; Rhode Island is -1.00, producing a 7.63-point midpoint projection before home-field adjustment.
- Only eight current-season games per team; the normal approximation is wide and opponent-strength/home-field adjustment is not modeled.
- Rhode Island Rams −10.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 EPA/play: Rhode Island offense +0.049 versus Maine -0.131; success rate 42.7% versus 37.9%.
- SRS rates Rhode Island -30.2 versus Maine -44.4; season average margin gap is 15.25 points per game.
- Grade A; research quality 78/100. Spread selected over Rhode Island moneyline and the total for price and protection.
- Maine's defense allowed only +0.024 EPA/play versus Rhode Island's +0.035; this is not a shutdown matchup.
- Maine Black Bears under 45.5 total+90%Won
Taken at −111 on DraftKings
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Eight-game profiles show Maine at 69.8 plays and 1.09 points/drive with -0.131 EPA/play; Rhode Island is 68.6 plays and 1.90 points/drive with only +0.049 EPA/play.
- DraftKings moved from 44.5 (-103 over) at 6:03 AM to 45.5 (-111 over) at 6:05 AM; the upward move opposes this under, but leaves a larger number.
- Both projected quarterbacks, Caden Drezek and Alex McClelland, are expected rather than officially confirmed; Maine has had recent quarterback rotation, so a late change would invalidate the efficiency estimate.
- Total points under 44.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- season-to-date scoring averages sum to 37.9 points, Maine 13.4 and Rhode Island 24.5, below 44.5.
- Maine averages -0.131 EPA/play and a 37.9% success rate, limiting its contribution to a high total.
- ProphetX offers under 44.5 at 51.22¢ (-105 American); my projection is 60% to win.
- Rhode Island's offense is more efficient than Maine's and can create an early scoring burst.
- total points under 45.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 current-season offense averages project roughly 38 combined points: Maine 13.4, Rhode Island 24.5.
- Maine is -0.131 EPA/play with a 37.9% success rate through eight games, limiting its contribution to a 45.5 total.
- Most likely script is Rhode Island controlling a low-efficiency Maine offense rather than producing a shootout.
- Maine and Rhode Island defenses have allowed positive average EPA, so explosive plays can break the projection.
Win chance, start to finish
50%RHODMAINKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Maine vs. Rhode Island?
The Rhode Island won 14–13 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.