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Temple vs. East CarolinaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Temple2–5
9–17Final
East Carolina3–4
Score by period
Team1234T
TEM03339
ECU737017

Top model pick, graded

Won

East Carolina Pirates to win −182

Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: 7-game records: ECU 3-4, Temple 2-5; ECU's last-five margin is +6.4 per game versus Temple's -4.4.

Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-4 on this game · −1% return

  1. East Carolina Pirates to win2 models agree
    +55%Won

    Taken at −182 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • 7-game records: ECU 3-4, Temple 2-5; ECU's last-five margin is +6.4 per game versus Temple's -4.4.
    • Season per-play profile: ECU allows 0.017 EPA/play, while Temple allows 0.191; the defensive matchup offsets Temple's +0.128 offensive EPA/play.
    • ECU's expected lineup is not confirmed; college football provides no official pregame starters here.
    Long Way Home
    • East Carolina's defense has allowed +0.017 EPA/play this season versus Temple's +0.191, the matchup edge offsetting Temple's stronger +0.128 offensive EPA/play.
    • Recent form favors the Pirates: East Carolina is +6.4 average margin over its last five, Temple is -4.4.
    • Most likely loss: Temple's more efficient offense exploits East Carolina's weaker offensive profile and wins outright.
  2. Temple Owls spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main line is East Carolina -4 -106 / Temple +4 -106, devigged ECU probability 50.0%; no exact +3.5 quote.
    • Most likely loss: East Carolina wins by four or more; the model is centered only 2.3 points toward ECU and normal college-football variance is wide.
  3. Temple Owls spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  4. East Carolina Pirates first-half spread NO 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s full-game East Carolina -4 scales to a 2.0-point first-half mean.
    • 3,483 FBS regular-season finals from 2022, 25 have empirical margin SD 14.71; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 10.40, not 7.35.
    • DERIVED REFERENCE at the exact 3.5 rung, N(2.0, 10.40²) gives East Carolina-over probability 44.3%, or 55.7% for NO; the college 3-point mass (347 games) modestly favors NO at 3.5.
    • Only the full-game spread is an independent sharp reference; the first-half mean and variance are derived, not independently posted.
  5. East Carolina Pirates spread −3.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • seven current FBS games: East Carolina's defense allows +0.0174 EPA/play versus Temple's +0.1905, a 0.1731 defensive gap.
    • PFF's 2026 defense card favors East Carolina 91.1, 68.7 overall, 80.3, 55.8 in coverage, and 92.0, 75.7 in run defense.
    • Both teams clear the coverage gate with seven current-season efficiency rows; both are AAC FBS teams, and the latest box plus live web listing identify Ajani Sheppard and Mitch Griffis as the starters.
    • Temple's offense is the better current EPA unit (+0.1282 versus ECU's +0.0291), so ECU's defensive edge is not a two-way mismatch.
  6. East Carolina Pirates spread −4
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ESPN model: ECU 68.3% win probability, +6.54 margin; 2.54 points above -4.
    • ECU's last-five margin is +6.4; Temple's is -4.4 entering this home game.
    • ECU allowed 0.017 EPA/play; Temple allowed 0.191, a meaningful matchup gap.
    • Most likely loss: Temple's stronger offense keeps the margin below five.
Show all 8 picks
  1. East Carolina Pirates −3.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ECU's FBS-only defense allowed +0.038 EPA/play versus Temple's +0.192, a 0.154 edge for the home side.
    • ECU's home-field defense and 0.057 PROE support a modest margin edge despite Temple's stronger offense.
    • captured sportsbook main numbers range ECU -3.5 to -4; reference only, not the thesis.
    • Temple's FBS offense leads ECU in EPA/play, 0.128 to 0.002, success rate .468 to .418, and explosive rate .147 to .106.
  2. Temple Owls to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Temple's FBS profile leads ECU in offense EPA/play, 0.128 to 0.002.
    • Temple also leads success rate 46.8% to 41.8% and explosive rate 14.7% to 10.6%.
    • Pinnacle shows Temple around +160; reference only, not the thesis.
    • ECU's FBS defense is materially better: +0.038 allowed EPA/play versus Temple's +0.192.

Win chance, start to finish

50%ECUTEMKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Temple vs. East Carolina?

The East Carolina won 17–9 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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