Houston Christian vs. Stephen F. AustinFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHomer Bryce Stadium
Houston Christian4-4
6–37Final
Stephen F. Austin8-0
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| STEP | 7 | 11 | 19 | 0 | 37 |
Top model pick, graded
WonStephen F. Austin Lumberjacks spread −27.5 53¢
Why Key Number CFB likes it: SFA leads 2026 EPA: +0.20 offense and -0.14 defense allowed versus HCU -0.01 and +0.04.
Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · +13% return
- Game over 54.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stephen F. Austin averages 3.03 points per drive and +0.20 offensive EPA/play; HCU allows +0.04 EPA/play.
- SFA is 8-0 with a +27.0 recent margin; HCU is 4-4 with a +2.2 recent margin and allowed 35 points last week.
- Both lineups are expected rather than confirmed, and FCS has no official injury feed in the warehouse; late personnel news could move the total materially.
- Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks spread −27.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SFA leads 2026 EPA: +0.20 offense and -0.14 defense allowed versus HCU -0.01 and +0.04.
- PFF favors SFA 92.7 overall and 94.3 defense to HCU's 73.0 and 81.9; SFA is 8-0 versus HCU 4-4.
- QB gate cleared: Cutter Stewart and Gavin Rutherford lead latest pass attempts; current web checks and official previews show no open battle.
- Most likely loss: SFA wins by 1, 27, or HCU wins outright.
- Total points under 54.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SFA's season defense allows 14.4 points per game and posts -0.14 defensive EPA/play through eight games.
- HCU's offense is near-neutral at -0.01 EPA/play, with 28.9 points per game but only 0.43 success rate.
- My matchup projection is approximately 48 total points, 6.5 below the ProphetX number; SFA's offense is likely over-weighted in the total.
- Most likely loss: SFA reaches 40-plus points and HCU adds enough late points against a likely garbage-time defense.
- Houston Christian Huskies +27.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- opponent-filtered FCS margins are SFA +23.9 versus HCU +1.4, below the 27.5 spread.
- only efficiency favors SFA, but the gap is smaller than the market number: SFA off EPA +0.13 versus HCU -0.07.
- Pinnacle also sits at 27.5, with Houston Christian priced -115; ProphetX improves the single price.
- versus-FCS classification is Thin; HCU has only five classified FCS games and SFA seven.
- Stephen F. Austin −27.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stephen F. Austin is 5-0 over its last five with a +29.8 average margin; its home scoring margin is +27.25.
- Houston Christian's road profile is -0.14 offensive EPA/play, 39.9% success, and 16.8 points per game.
- Stephen F. Austin allows 17.75 points per home game; DK, FanDuel, and Pinnacle all also show -27.5.
- The home scoring margin of +27.25 is nearly identical to the 27.5 line, so the edge is thin.
Win chance, start to finish
50%STEPHOUKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Houston Christian vs. Stephen F. Austin?
Stephen F. Austin won 37-6 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.