Alcorn State vs. Mississippi Valley State DeltaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRice-Totten Stadium

Alcorn State4–4

52–17Final

Mississippi Valley State Delta3–5

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
ALCO	14	21	17	0	52
MISS	10	0	0	7	17

Top model pick, graded

Won

Alcorn State Braves to win 79¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: Pregame context corroborates the direction: Alcorn +0.099 EPA/play and 77.6 grade versus MVSU -0.212 and 69.6.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-0 on this game · +66% return

Alcorn State Braves to winFavorite2 models agree
+27%Won
Taken at 79¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCFB Heater, BETALAB 6.0
Why 2 models like it
CFB Heater
- Pregame context corroborates the direction: Alcorn +0.099 EPA/play and 77.6 grade versus MVSU -0.212 and 69.6.
BETALAB 6.0
- BETALAB estimate: 82.5% versus Polymarket US raw 79.0c and devigged 78.6%; 3.9-point model gap.
- Recent EPA/play: Alcorn State +0.0993, Mississippi Valley State -0.2116; success rates .4511 versus .3634.
- Both lineups are expected, not confirmed; FCS has no official injury feed, so Tolbert and Joshua Brown availability is not fully verified.
Alcorn State Braves −11.5
+95%Won
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Alcorn's recent offense: +0.0993 EPA/play and 45.1% success rate versus MVSU's -0.2116 and 36.3%.
- Alcorn's recent explosive-play rate is 13.8% versus MVSU's 9.8%, supporting separation rather than a narrow win.
- Expected QB edge: Jaylon Tolbert's latest line was 356 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT; Josh Brown had 196 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT.
- Alcorn's defense allowed 41 and 63 points in its last two games, leaving backdoor-cover risk.
Alcorn State Braves spread −11.5
+95%Won
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- SRS ratings: Alcorn -46.2 versus MVSU -70.4, a 24.2-point neutral-field gap.
- SWAC home effect is +3.6 points across 25 conference games; projected margin is 20.6.
- Normal margin model gives 59.1% cover probability versus 50.2% two-book fair probability.
- Expected, not confirmed, depth-chart lineups; FCS has no official availability feed or PFF usage leaders.
Alcorn State Braves spread −10.5
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION; reference label: NO REFERENCE.
- Eight-game scoring-margin gap is 21.3 points: Alcorn State +4.9 per game versus MVSU -16.4.
- Alcorn State owns a +0.203 offensive EPA/play and 47.2% success rate; MVSU is -0.212 and 36.3%.
- Alcorn's defense allows 37.0 points per game and has +0.122 defensive EPA allowed, leaving a backdoor-cover path.

Win chance, start to finish

50%MISSALCOKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Alcorn State vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta?

The Alcorn State won 52–17 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.