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Minnesota vs. IndianaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMemorial Stadium (Bloomington
Minnesota5-2
16–23Final
Indiana7-1
Score by period
Team12345T
MINN3706016
IU7036723

Top model pick, graded

Won

Minnesota Golden Gophers under 40.5 total −112

Why Tempo Gap likes it: Recent weeks 5-8: Minnesota averaged 64.7 plays, 1.26 points/drive and 15.3 points; Indiana averaged 61.8 plays, 2.02 points/drive and 23.8 points.

Tempo GapUp 5% return this season · 85 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 15-14 on this game · −7% return

  1. Indiana Hoosiers −20.55 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    5 modelsEPA Mismatch, Picks With Pink Grading System +3
    Why 5 models like it
    EPA Mismatch
    • FPI projects Indiana by 26.95, 6.45 points above the current -20.5 spread.
    • Season EPA favors Indiana: +0.25 offense and -0.06 defense allowed versus Minnesota's +0.06 and +0.01.
    • Minnesota's recent defense improved to -0.12 EPA allowed per play; Indiana's recent defense regressed to +0.01.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • ESPN FPI projects Indiana by 26.95 points, 6.45 above the offered -20.5.
    • Using FPI's margin with a 35.92-point pooled current-season margin SD gives 57.1% cover probability.
    • The 57.1% estimate is a supported derivation, not a calibrated probability: one FPI projection plus a normal, independent-margin assumption.
    CFB HunterV2
    • FPI projects Indiana by 26.95 points; the -20.5 spread leaves a 6.45-point cushion.
    • Indiana leads recent eight-game EPA/play by 0.21 and success rate by 5.5 percentage points.
    • A conservative widened-margin simulation makes cover probability 64%, not a certainty; late scores can erase a margin.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Indiana's FBS-only 2026 offense is +0.21 EPA/play and +5.7 percentage points in success rate.
    • Josh Hoover is probable and the expected lineup lists him at QB; both teams clear the three-game Full-tier sample gate.
    • Indiana -20.5 requires a 21-point win; one late score or backdoor drive loses the spread.
  2. Indiana Hoosiers to winFavorite3 models agree
    +7%Won

    Taken at −1450 on DraftKings

    3 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, BETALAB 6.0 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Brewing CFB Moneylines
    • 2026 adjusted profile: Indiana +0.30 offensive PPA and .458 success rate versus Minnesota +0.04 and .410.
    • Historical DK home favorites priced -1000 or shorter went 324-14 with +0.04 units across 338 games, 2019-25 seasons shown.
    • College starting lineups are projected rather than officially confirmed; a late QB or trench change would materially alter the estimate.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Indiana leads recent EPA/play 0.26 to Minnesota 0.06 and success rate 50.4% to 45.1%.
    • Indiana’s 93.9 team grade and 7-1 record materially exceed Minnesota’s 87.6 grade and 5-2 record.
    • Full-game total 40.5 is rejected: current team and recent scoring inputs leave the estimate range straddles the market.
    Long Way Home
    • Minnesota's latest pregame offensive EPA/play was -0.24 with a 35.3% success rate; Indiana's latest defensive EPA allowed was -0.27.
    • Minnesota's early drive ended in a sack-fumble recovered by Indiana at the MIN 22, immediately preceding Indiana's touchdown.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota turns the short-field/turnover advantage into a comeback while Indiana's offense stalls at 10 points.
  3. Minnesota Golden Gophers spread +20.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsHeater Two-Hour, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Heater Two-Hour
    • Their sport-filtered records are 12-0, 57-0, and 16-3; each carries a live position with non-trivial size.
    • The broader spread moved from Indiana -21.5 at FanDuel’s open to -20.5 currently, supporting a Minnesota-price lag thesis.
    • Indiana can win by 21 or more if its strong defense and home favorite status produce a blowout.
    Key Number CFB
    • Indiana’s season offense EPA/play is +0.25 versus Minnesota’s defense at +0.01; Minnesota offense is +0.06 versus Indiana defense at -0.06.
    • Minnesota’s 89.9 PFF defense and Indiana’s 88.7 PFF offense narrow the expected gap despite Indiana’s 93.9 overall grade.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana wins by 21 or more; the exact-21 cluster is a key-number danger.
  4. Indiana Hoosiers spread −20.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • PROJECTION, Indiana offense averages +0.25 EPA/play versus Minnesota defense at +0.01 allowed; 8-game/7-game sample.
    • Indiana leads current efficiency: .507 success and .159 explosive rate versus Minnesota’s .461 and .121.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota generates enough explosive plays or turnovers for Indiana to win by 20 or fewer.
    Long Way Home
    • Indiana rates No. 8 at 24.02, versus Minnesota No. 66 at 0.68.
    • Availability supports Indiana: Minnesota has two official offensive-line outs; Indiana QB Josh Hoover is probable.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana wins but by 20 or fewer, erasing the model’s 6.45-point cushion.
  5. Minnesota Golden Gophers to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
  6. Minnesota Golden Gophers under 40.5 total
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent weeks 5-8: Minnesota averaged 64.7 plays, 1.26 points/drive and 15.3 points; Indiana averaged 61.8 plays, 2.02 points/drive and 23.8 points.
    • Recent success rates were only 42.7% for Minnesota and 47.0% for Indiana; explosive rates were 10.0% and 13.7%.
    • Market moved toward the under: DraftKings opened 41.5 and is now 40.5; Pinnacle moved from 41.5 to 40.0.
    • Indiana's full-season offense is strong: 0.25 EPA/play and 3.08 points/drive, so a rebound against Minnesota can clear 40.5.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Under 40.5 total
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 128.3 combined plays at roughly 30.1 seconds per play imply a low-chance game; possession count is the load-bearing factor.
    • Last-three offensive points-per-drive averages are 1.36 for Indiana and 1.26 for Minnesota.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana's 3.08 season points-per-drive offense overcomes the low-possession baseline with efficient red-zone finishing.
  2. Minnesota Golden Gophers +18.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle -20.5 de-vigs to 51.5% Indiana / 48.5% Minnesota; moving to +18.5 crosses no listed key.
    • Official Minnesota game center lists Drake Lindsey at quarterback; the Big Ten report has Indiana QB Josh Hoover probable.
    • No. 4 Indiana and FPI No. 8 Indiana versus FPI No. 66 Minnesota create real blowout risk to +18.5.
  3. Charlie Becker under 5.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −136 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Target share 36.2% over 3 games (7/18, 17/40, 6/22), with share CV about 20%; the role is stable.
    • Yards per target fell 9.7 to 4.6 from Week 7 to Week 8 after Becker's 165-yard efficiency spike.
    • Route rate stayed 93.1%, 93.3%, and 95.2%; the role persists while production has regressed.
    • Davion Chandler is officially Out, concentrating Indiana targets among the remaining receivers.
  4. Darius Taylor under 29.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Taylor stayed under 29.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 clearly Minnesota-identified games.
    • Indiana's 2026 defense averages -0.06 EPA allowed per play; its PFF run-defense grade is 95.0.
    • A competitive script could push Taylor above 15 carries; one explosive run breaks a low yardage line.
  5. Minnesota Golden Gophers +20.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana owns the efficiency edge, but its +0.25 offensive EPA/play and .507 success rate do not justify a 20.5-point margin against this number.
    • Minnesota's season offense is +0.06 EPA/play with a .461 success rate, while its defense is near neutral at +0.01 EPA allowed/play.
    • Both teams played Oct. 24, giving each seven days of rest; there is no rest disadvantage to Minnesota.
    • Indiana's defensive EPA allowed rate is -0.06/play, and Minnesota scored only 13 points last week; a defensive touchdown or short fields can produce the blowout this ticket needs to avoid.
  6. Game total over 40
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game 2026 FBS sample: Indiana posts +0.25 offensive EPA/play, .5068 success, .1588 explosive versus Minnesota’s +0.01 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Minnesota’s offense is +0.06 EPA/play, .4612 success, .1205 explosive against Indiana’s -0.06 defensive EPA allowed; both sides retain a path to 20-plus points.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana’s 92.4 PFF defense and Minnesota’s 89.9 defense reproduce the recent low-scoring scripts; Indiana scored 13 and 15 in its last two, while Minnesota scored 13 in three of its last four.
  7. Game total under 40
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 39.5 is 60.63c (-154), an impossible 9.65-point probability inversion versus the broader under 40 rung.
    • Historical CFB totals include 173 exact-40 results; the flat rung's push protection is valuable near this key number.
    • Recent defensive form supports restraint: Minnesota held Iowa to 10 and Indiana held Michigan to 6.
    • Most likely loss: the game reaches 41 or more points; exactly 40 is a push, not a win.
  8. Indiana Hoosiers first-half spread NO 9.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle Indiana -20.5 full-game; half anchor +10.25, blended to a +9.8 first-half mean.
    • 1,052 2026 FBS regular-season finals: SD_full 16.41; square-root scaling gives SD_1H 11.61, not 8.21.
    • Winner-margin mass clusters at 3 (101), 7 (79), and 10 (42); the 9.5 rung is evaluated beside the college-specific 10 mass.
    • The 10-point mass is immediately on the YES side of 9.5; the discrete correction costs roughly 1.5 probability points.
  9. Drake Lindsey over 0.5 passing touchdowns
    +116%Won

    Taken at +116 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 64%; FanDuel +116 implies 46.3%: +17.7 points, +38.2% relative gap.
    • Lindsey threw a passing touchdown in 5 of 7 2026 games; his prior comparable season was 10-3 over 0.5.
    • The model conservatively discounts the historical 75% over rate for Indiana's 31st-of-319 defensive EPA rank.
    • The exact-line L10 is incomplete at 7 games; comparable-season fallback requires low conviction.
  10. Turbo Richard under 87.5 rushing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 66%; FanDuel -112 implies 52.8%: +13.2 points, +25.0% relative gap.
    • Turbo stayed under 87.5 in 5 of 8 2026 games; prior comparable season was 8-3 under.
    • Minnesota ranks 84th of 319 in 2026 defensive EPA, a top-26% overall defense supporting the under.
    • This is a form fallback: the current season has only 8 games, not a complete L10.
  11. Game over 20.5 first-half points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 11.43 projected first-half drives: (Indiana 11.00 + Minnesota 11.86) ÷ 2; blended pace is 30.12 seconds/play.
    • Weather fields are null; live reporting indicates light wind but possible later rain, and any early precipitation could remove a possession.
  12. Game total over 41
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 41 wins at 42+, pushes at 41, and loses at 40 or fewer; adjacent Over 40.5 wins at 41+.
    • This is a thin internal-coherence edge, not a projection of the teams' scoring; lineup, weather, and game-script information could move the underlying total.
  13. Total Points over 40
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seven-game Minnesota and eight-game Indiana samples average 29.96 and 30.29 seconds per play, supporting a healthy possession count.
    • Indiana posts 50.7% success and 15.9% explosiveness; Minnesota brings +14.9% PROE, giving the matchup multiple scoring routes.
    • Season scoring averages combine for 60.2 points; the live sportsbook reference is 40.5, while ProphetX team-total anchors sum to 40.0.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota's 13-point outputs in its last two games and Indiana's defense hold the game at 40 or fewer.
  14. Total Points over 35.5Favorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current 2026 samples: Minnesota averages 29.96 seconds/play, +15.0% PROE, 12.1% explosive rate and 45.2% success; Indiana averages 30.29, +3.8%, 15.9% and 50.5%.
    • The venue's own main total is 40.5 and its team-total anchors are Indiana 30.5 plus Minnesota 9.5; 35.5 sits 4.5-5 points below those self-references.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota's offense again stalls near its recent 13-point outputs, leaving Indiana to score roughly 23-plus by itself for the over.
  15. Total points under 40.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Those six recent games allowed 35.7 combined points per game, supporting a low-possession, defense-led read.
    • The line is 9.2 points above the recent combined scoring average; the edge is directional, not payout-driven.
    • Indiana and Minnesota average 33.6 and 26.6 points across the full season, far above the recent split.

Win chance, start to finish

50%IUMINNKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Minnesota vs. Indiana?

Indiana won 23-16 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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