Alabama State vs. Alabama A&MFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalLegion Field (AL)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| ALA | 7 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAlabama A&M Bulldogs to win −249
Why Brewing CFB Moneylines likes it: A&M's opponent-adjusted offensive PPA is 0.324 versus Alabama State's 0.025.
Brewing CFB MoneylinesUp 5% return this season · 40 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-2 on this game · +5% return
- Alabama A&M Bulldogs to win+40%Won
Taken at −249 on DraftKings
3 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, D1 Winner +1Why 3 models like it
Brewing CFB Moneylines- A&M's opponent-adjusted offensive PPA is 0.324 versus Alabama State's 0.025.
- A&M leads adjusted success rate on offense, 48.4% to 39.3%, and defense, 32.4% allowed to 36.8%.
- Both quarterbacks are expected, not officially confirmed: Cornelious Brown IV for A&M and Aaron Frye for Alabama State.
D1 Winner- Efficiency: A&M averaged +0.235 offensive EPA/play and 50.1% success rate versus Alabama State's -0.011 and 44.2%.
- QB/injury: A&M's expected Cornelious Brown has 2,158 yards and 21 TDs; Alabama State's expected Aaron Frye is the primary passer after Andrew Body's limited 2026 participation.
- Expected lineups are not confirmed, and neither FCS team has an official game-day injury report in the warehouse.
BETALAB 6.0- Alabama A&M's recent scoring margin is +25.2 per game versus Alabama State's +1.6 over the preview windows.
- A&M's recent EPA profile is stronger: +0.182 offensive EPA/play and -0.038 defensive EPA allowed versus State's +0.044 and +0.069.
- Expected lineups only; FCS has no official injury feed. Aaron Frye and Cornelious Brown IV are projected quarterbacks.
- Alabama A&M Bulldogs −7−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SRS rates Alabama A&M -29.8 versus Alabama State -37.1: a 7.3-point neutral-field gap.
- Alabama A&M is 4-1 with a +25.2 average margin over its last five; Alabama State is 2-3 at +1.6.
- Conservative 70% SRS / 30% last-five-margin blend projects A&M by 12.2; a recent-margin SD near 24 gives about 58% to beat -7.
- Team-market L10 exact-line hit rate is N/A under the brief because no comparable same-line history exists; exact ATS evidence is missing.
- Alabama A&M Bulldogs spread −6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- my cover estimate is 58%, above ProphetX's 56.33¢ (-129) price.
- Alabama A&M averages 40.1 points and +0.235 offensive EPA/play; Alabama State averages 25.7 and -0.011.
- Bulldogs' 0.168 explosive rate and 0.501 success rate exceed Hornets' 0.102 and 0.453.
- Most likely loss: Alabama State limits A&M early and keeps the underdog inside six points.
- Total points over 58.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle also posts the same-line over 58.5 at +109, backing the direction even though ProphetX is the endorsed venue.
- Most likely loss: Alabama State's latest five scores were 21, 27, 10, 41 and 17, allowing an A&M-controlled game to stay below 59.
Win chance, start to finish
50%ALAALAKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Alabama State vs. Alabama A&M?
The Alabama A&M won 31–28 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.