Murray State vs. Illinois StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHancock Stadium
Murray State1–7
14–35Final
Illinois State6–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MURR | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| ILL | 7 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 35 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMurray State Racers +29.5 −110
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Projection: Illinois State margin 22.94 from current-season 8-game offense/defense averages, 6.56 points below the offered 29.5.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-2 on this game · +23% return
- Illinois State Redbirds spread −29.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Illinois State averages +0.2487 offensive EPA/play versus Murray State’s -0.1103; defensive EPA allowed is -0.0473 versus +0.2472.
- PFF overall grades are 88.7 for Illinois State and 69.5 for Murray State; season margins are +18.9 and -27.0.
- Most likely loss: Illinois State wins by 29 or fewer; -29.5 has no push.
Long Way Home- Illinois State averages 35.1 points; Murray State allows 41.75, while Murray averages 14.75 against Illinois State's 16.25 allowed.
- The sample is only eight games and opponent adjustment could erase the apparent 29.5-point gap.
- Murray State Racers +29.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Illinois State margin 22.94 from current-season 8-game offense/defense averages, 6.56 points below the offered 29.5.
- Illinois State is 6-2 with +18.875 average margin; Murray State is 1-7 with -27.0, both through Oct. 24.
- Independent distribution: Normal(mean 22.94, pooled current-season margin SD 24.97) gives 60.4% for Murray State +29.5.
- The 8-game samples are wide: Illinois State margin SD 29.34 and Murray State margin SD 19.65; the normal estimate is not calibrated.
- Game under 55.5 total points+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Eight-game efficiency: Murray State -0.110 offensive EPA/play and Illinois State -0.047 defensive EPA allowed/play.
- Combined season scoring is 49.9 points per game; combined points per drive are 4.29, with Illinois State's pace profile pulling against a runaway total.
- Grade B; research quality 74/100. Under 54.5 at 57c had less line protection; 56.5 at 63c surrendered the price edge; Polymarket US listed no spread or period contract.
- Both projected lineups are expected with null observation timestamps; FCS availability coverage is incomplete, so quarterback or skill-position changes remain unknown.
- Game total under 55.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent scoring/allowing blend projects 53.9 points: Murray State 15.5 and Illinois State 38.4.
- Murray State’s offense is -0.1334 EPA/play; Illinois State’s defense allows -0.0189 EPA/play, supporting a constrained underdog score.
- CFB total density is non-flat: exact 55 occurred 435 times versus 190 at 56 in 11,423 regular/postseason games.
- Most likely loss: Illinois State converts Murray State’s +0.2532 defensive EPA allowed rate into 56 or more points.
- Total points under 55.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season rows: Illinois State averages 35.1 points scored and 16.3 allowed; Murray State averages 14.8 scored and 41.8 allowed.
- Murray State has negative offensive EPA/play in 6 of 8 current-season games, limiting its contribution against an Illinois State defense.
- The ProphetX number is a full point higher than Pinnacle's 54.5, providing threshold value without chasing a long price.
- Most likely loss: Illinois State converts the mismatch into 45-plus points and Murray State contributes enough for 56 or more.
Win chance, start to finish
50%ILLMURRKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Murray State vs. Illinois State?
The Illinois State won 35–14 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.