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Colorado State vs. Utah StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMaverik Stadium
Colorado State3–4
14–31Final
Utah State2–5
Score by period
Team1234T
CSU006814
USU1077731

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total Points under 60.5 51¢

Why Tempo Board likes it: Seven 2026 games average 53.4 combined points: Colorado State 38.6 and Utah State 14.9, five-plus points below 60.5.

Tempo BoardDown 17% this season · 373 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 1-11 on this game · −84% return

  1. Colorado State Rams spread +7.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    3 modelsKickoff Ledger, Saturday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Colorado State: +0.261 offensive EPA/play and 48.6% success rate; Utah State: -0.083 EPA/play and 39.1% success.
    • Efficiency-based fair spread is Utah State -3.5, four points shorter than the posted -7.5.
    • Colorado State's defense allows 44.0 points per game and +0.368 defensive EPA/play allowed; Utah State can win with explosive plays.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • PROJECTION, seven-game FBS sample: Colorado State offense is +0.261 EPA/play versus Utah State defense at +0.016 allowed.
    • Colorado State owns a .486 success rate versus Utah State’s .391 offense; the Aggies average -0.083 offensive EPA/play.
    • Most likely loss: Utah State’s PFF 87.4 defense, including 80.0 coverage, contains Colorado State and the home favorite wins by eight or more.
    Long Way Home
    • Colorado State averaged +0.261 offensive EPA/play, 48.6% success and 38.6 points per game through seven games.
    • Colorado State's offense against Utah State's near-neutral +0.016 defensive EPA allowed projects a closer margin than -7.5.
    • Most likely loss: Colorado State's defense repeats its 44.0 points allowed per game and Utah State creates a two-score home win.
  2. Colorado State Rams to winLong shot3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsResting Money, Saturday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only; directional check: backing Colorado State Rams, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is venue self-reference, not an independent statistical edge or sharp-book confirmation; the hypothesis may simply be wrong.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • seven-game 2026 FBS sample: Colorado State averaged +0.2609 offensive EPA/play and .4735 success rate versus Utah State's -0.0834 and .3909.
    • Matchup efficiency favors Colorado State: its offense faces Utah State's +0.0163 defensive EPA/play allowed, while Utah State's offense faces Colorado State's +0.3677 allowed.
    • Most likely loss: Utah State's 87.4 PFF defense, 80.0 coverage grade, and home field suppress Colorado State's offense despite the EPA mismatch.
    Long Way Home
    • Colorado State averaged roughly +0.261 offensive EPA/play through seven games; Utah State averaged roughly -0.083.
    • ESPN's projected Utah margin is only 6.577 points, well below the market's roughly 9.5-point spread.
    • Colorado State's defense has allowed 36.6 points per game in the season data; Utah can exploit that weakness.
  3. Colorado State +8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring is 38.6 points per game for Colorado State versus 14.9 for Utah State.
    • Moneyline, total, team-total, first-half, and first-quarter alternatives offered less price protection or thinner evidence.
    • Utah State owns an 87.4 PFF team grade and Colorado State's defense is only 53.1.
  4. Colorado State +9
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Two of three measures agree: thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total; both sides have 3 book levels, so levels are neutral.
    • Backing Colorado State, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is a ProphetX self-reference hypothesis being tested against outcomes, not a proven edge or independent model.
  5. Colorado State Rams spread +9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FPI projects Utah State by 6.577 points, about 3 points short of the market spread.
    • Colorado State owns a +0.261 offensive EPA/play and 46.2% success rate versus Utah State's -0.083 and 34.5%.
    • Utah State's offense averages -0.083 EPA/play and 1.31 points per drive, limiting its ability to separate.
    • Colorado State's defense has allowed +0.368 EPA/play, creating clear blowout and short-field risk.
  6. Colorado State Rams spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +3.5 wins on an exact Utah State margin of 3; adjacent whole +3 only pushes there.
    • Home teams won by exactly 3 in 247 of 4,547 FBS games from 2021-25: 5.432% push mass for Colorado State +3.
    • ProphetX quotes Colorado State +3.5 at +176 (36.23c) versus Colorado State +3 at +198 (33.56c): the half-point costs 2.67c while adding the 5.432% exact-3 win outcome.
    • The 5.432% exact-3 frequency is historical FBS-wide data, not a game-specific probability; Colorado State +3.5 still loses if Utah State wins by 4 or more.
Show all 8 picks
  1. Utah State Aggies first-half spread NO 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,905 completed FBS games from 2024, 2026 produce full-game margin SD 15.39; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 10.88.
    • Pinnacle's full-game Utah State spread is -9; half-game mean scales to roughly Utah State +4.25.
    • At mean +4.25 and SD 10.88, my same-rung distribution gives Utah State over 6.5 probability 41.8%, hence NO 58.2%.
    • No independent sharp first-half spread was posted; the mean is a scaled full-game reference, so model error is material.
  2. Total Points under 60.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seven 2026 games average 53.4 combined points: Colorado State 38.6 and Utah State 14.9, five-plus points below 60.5.
    • Tempo/explosiveness read: cleaned Colorado State pace is 26.60 seconds/play and Utah State 25.32; PROE is +15.8%/+13.1%, but success is 49.1%/39.1% and Utah State offense is -0.083 EPA/play.
    • PFF supports the scoring-rate matchup: Utah State defense grades 87.4 overall versus Colorado State offense at 72.8; Utah State allows only +0.016 EPA/play in the current sample.
    • Most likely loss: Colorado State's defense allows +0.368 EPA/play and 44.0 points per game, creating short fields that let Utah State reach 35-plus.

Win chance, start to finish

50%USUCSUKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Colorado State vs. Utah State?

The Utah State won 31–14 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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