Indiana State vs. Northern IowaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalUNI-Dome
Indiana State2–6
23–45Final
Northern Iowa3–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IU | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 23 |
| NORT | 3 | 14 | 7 | 21 | 45 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNorthern Iowa Panthers −7.5 −112
Why D1 Winner likes it: 57% cover estimate versus roughly 50% sharp-market probability clears the 6-point favorite-spread gate.
D1 WinnerDown 8% this season · 237 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −33% return
- Indiana State Sycamores to win−100%Lost
Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsResting Money, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Resting Money- Book-level count is Indiana State 2 versus Northern Iowa 3; the count does not corroborate, but the core thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pair agrees.
- The book-level measure points the other way, and Indiana State is only modestly thinner at the exact quote.
Key Number CFB- My win estimate is 31%, driven by nearly even PFF team grades: Indiana State 76.9 overall/79.9 defense versus Northern Iowa 77.2/80.8.
- Indiana State leads 2026 offensive EPA/play, 0.0965 to 0.0417; success rates are close, 42.4% versus 44.8%.
- Most likely loss: Northern Iowa wins outright; the moneyline has no spread cushion.
- Northern Iowa Panthers −7.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 57% cover estimate versus roughly 50% sharp-market probability clears the 6-point favorite-spread gate.
- UNI home splits: +0.100 EPA/play, -0.045 defensive EPA allowed, 36.0 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
- Indiana State road splits: +0.081 offensive EPA/play, +0.168 defensive EPA allowed, 21.3 points scored and 35.0 allowed.
- Indiana State's season explosive-play rate is 15.1%, materially above UNI's 11.1%, so chunk plays can erase the home edge.
- Indiana State Sycamores +10.5−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SRS ratings are effectively even: Northern Iowa -25.1 versus Indiana State -25.0.
- 2026 EPA: Indiana State offense +0.0965/play versus Northern Iowa +0.0417; success rates are 42.4% and 44.8%.
- Team grades are nearly identical: Northern Iowa 77.2 versus Indiana State 76.9; the +10.5 rung adds protection.
- FCS lineups are expected only; no official FCS injury report covers this game and lineup observations are unconfirmed.
- Indiana State Sycamores spread +8.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent net EPA favors UNI by only a narrow margin: -0.130 versus Indiana State's -0.181.
- SRS is effectively even: Indiana State -25.0 versus UNI -25.1; the market lays 8.5 points.
- UNI's recent five-game margin is -11.4, nearly identical to Indiana State's -10.8 despite the home-field spread.
- UNI's coverage grade is 89.8 versus Indiana State's 60.0, creating a real pass-game mismatch.
- Total points over 55.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- REFERENCE; no outside sharp reference.
- ProphetX prices over 54.5 at -164 (62.1¢) but over 55.5 at +115 (46.5¢), an unusually large half-point discontinuity.
- Projection: Indiana State averages 25.5 points and allows 34.8; Northern Iowa averages 24.4 and allows 28.0.
- Most likely loss: one offense repeats its recent stall-out, producing a sub-50 game.
Win chance, start to finish
50%NORTIUKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Indiana State vs. Northern Iowa?
The Northern Iowa won 45–23 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.