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Illinois vs. MarylandFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSECU Stadium
Illinois4–3
20–17Final
Maryland2–5
Score by period
Team1234T
ILL0731020
MD707317

Top model pick, graded

Won

Illinois Fighting Illini to win 57¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: Illinois leads Maryland 4-3 to 2-5, with a +35 versus -35 season point differential.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-7 on this game · −14% return

  1. Illinois Fighting Illini spread −2.53 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Seven-game sample: Illinois +0.252 EPA/play; Maryland defense allows +0.074, a +0.178 matchup gap.
    • Illinois success rate .526 versus Maryland .463; explosiveness .144 versus .136.
    • Most likely loss: Maryland's home defense turns this into a one-score finish, leaving Illinois short of -2.5.
    Key Number CFB
    • Illinois posted +0.2524 EPA/play versus Maryland's +0.0876 across seven 2026 regular-season games.
    • Latest 2026 PFF: Illinois 90.0 overall and 81.1 offense versus Maryland 77.5 and 68.4.
    • Illinois must win by 3 or more; one- or two-point wins lose.
    Long Way Home
    • Illinois leads 2026 averages in offensive EPA/play, 0.252 vs Maryland's 0.088, and success rate, 52.6% vs 46.3%.
    • Illinois has a +5.0 average margin; Maryland is -5.0 overall and -20.3 across its last three games.
    • The game is in Maryland and the pregame lineup is expected rather than officially confirmed.
  2. Illinois Fighting Illini to win2 models agree
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsCFB Heater, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Heater
    • Illinois leads Maryland 4-3 to 2-5, with a +35 versus -35 season point differential.
    • Illinois carries the stronger 2026 team grade, 90.0 versus Maryland's 77.5, and stronger offense grade, 81.1 versus 68.4.
    • Illinois QB Katin Houser is a game-time decision; the expected depth chart is not a confirmed lineup.
    Key Number CFB
    • Illinois posts +0.2524 offensive EPA/play versus Maryland's +0.0876; success rate is 52.6% versus 46.3%.
    • 2026 PFF grades favor Illinois 90.0 overall and 81.1 offense versus Maryland's 77.5 and 68.4.
    • Maryland's defense allowed +0.099 EPA/play versus Illinois's +0.212; lower is better, and Maryland has home field.
  3. Game total over 55High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 435 of 11,423 CFB regular/postseason finals landed exactly on 55: computed push probability 3.808%.
    • ProphetX quotes over 55 at +102 (49.50c) versus the same-win-set over 55.5 at -280 (73.68c).
    • The 24.18-cent price gap is far larger than the 3.808% push mass; this is a contract-rules discrepancy, not a projection claim.
    • Over 55 loses if the game finishes at 54 or fewer; exactly 55 is a push, not a win.
  4. Dorian Fleming over 2.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −145 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five of Fleming's six 2026 games cleared 2.5 receptions.
    • Maryland passes on 58.3% of season plays and 61.5% in its latest game.
    • College lineup is expected rather than confirmed; a late rotation change could reduce his route share.
  5. Maryland Terrapins +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +2.5 is a half-point contract; it cannot push and wins on a Maryland win or loss by 1, 2.
    • adjacent Maryland +3 is 54.55¢ (-120); exact-3 push mass is 4.272% (443/10,371 CFB games).
    • Adjusting the +3 quote for that push gives a 52.22¢ no-push equivalent; Maryland +2.5 is only 50.00¢.
    • The 4.272% push rate is all completed CFB from 2014, 25, not this matchup’s team-specific distribution.
  6. Collin Dixon first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +650 on DraftKings

    CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Manual game-specific mode overrides the ranking gate; freshest Week 9 AP poll has neither team ranked.
    • Dixon owns 5 of Illinois' 12 verified red-zone offensive TDs and 10 receiving TDs through seven games.
    • Illinois posts +0.252 EPA/play and 2.91 points/drive; Maryland's PFF coverage grade is 62.2.
    • Illinois QB Katin Houser is a game-time decision; a change can alter passing and red-zone efficiency.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Maryland Terrapins first-half spread YES 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s live full-game Maryland -3.5 gives a pregame first-half mean of +1.75.
    • 3,483 2022, 25 FBS regular-season finals produce SD_full 14.71; square-root scaling gives SD_1H 10.40, not 7.35.
    • Maryland leads 7, 0 with 0:08 left in Q1; conditional halftime mean is about +7.88 with remaining SD about 7.35.
    • Maryland’s lead followed an Illinois interception and a short-field scoring sequence; turnover-driven state can regress.
  2. Collin Dixon receiving yards under 79.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −116 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 of latest 10 comparable games stayed under 79.5 yards; no pushes.
    • Model probability 61.0% versus FanDuel -116 implied 53.7%; +7.3 points, +13.6% relative.
    • Dixon is the expected Illinois LWR1 with 191 recent snaps across three games.
    • 2026-only form is 4 of 7 under, 57.1%; the qualifying 10-game sample includes three prior-season games.
  3. Illinois Fighting Illini −8.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED band at 30.77¢ (+225): this tests patient Illinois demand against the outcome, not a projection model; backing Illinois, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the side: Illinois has 3 levels, not more than Maryland's 3.
  4. Total points under 48.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Illinois has produced -0.775 EPA/play and a 16.7% success rate through 12 plays, supporting a stalled offensive path.
    • Maryland has only one touchdown through 16 plays despite 50% success, so the early lead has not yet created a shootout script.
    • Maryland's 50% success rate can turn field position into quick scores; another early touchdown makes 48.5 fragile.

Win chance, start to finish

50%MDILLKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Illinois vs. Maryland?

The Illinois won 20–17 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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