Mercyhurst vs. StonehillFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalW.B. Mason Stadium
Mercyhurst1–7
28–34Final
Stonehill3–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 0 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| STON | 0 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
Top model pick, graded
WonStonehill Skyhawks to win −275
Why NFL Sharp Edge likes it: SRS rates Stonehill -34.5 versus Mercyhurst -52.1, a 17.6-point rating gap.
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 8% this season · 112 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-2 on this game · +19% return
- Stonehill Skyhawks to win+36%Won
Taken at −275 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SRS rates Stonehill -34.5 versus Mercyhurst -52.1, a 17.6-point rating gap.
- 2026 team-game EPA favors Stonehill: -0.019 offense and -0.020 defensive EPA allowed versus Mercyhurst -0.166 and +0.278.
- Stonehill's recent defense is stronger: -0.069 defensive EPA allowed over five games versus Mercyhurst +0.180.
- Both FCS lineups are expected rather than officially confirmed; no official FCS injury feed covers this game.
- Game total over 45.5+98%Won
Taken at −102 on BetMGM
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 8-game season averages: Stonehill 17.0 PF/21.875 PA; Mercyhurst 20.625 PF/41.75 PA.
- Opponent cross-average projects 50.6 total from season data; the L5 version projects 48.4.
- A 50/50 season-L5 blend is 49.5; normal approximation with 18.0-point observed SD gives 58.8% over 45.5.
- Only eight games per team; schedule strength and opponent-adjusted scoring are not fully modeled.
- Game over 45.5 total points+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent cross-offense/defense blend projects approximately 50.6 total points, 5.1 above 45.5.
- Mercyhurst allowed 41.75 points and +0.251 EPA/play defensively across its last 8.
- Stonehill's last 8 games averaged 38.9 combined points; the selected 45.5 line preserves more protection than higher rungs.
- Recent samples are only eight games per team and opponent quality is uneven.
- Stonehill Skyhawks spread −5.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stonehill allows -0.045 EPA/play versus Mercyhurst's +0.251 allowed; Mercyhurst offense is -0.093 EPA/play.
- Recent margin form: Stonehill -4.9 over eight games; Mercyhurst -21.1; PFF passing grades favor Stonehill 67.3-54.0.
- QB gate cleared: box leaders Alex Gevaudan and Jack O'Connell are supported by official previews and the current expected depth chart.
- Most likely loss: Stonehill wins by 0-5; the ticket also loses if Mercyhurst wins outright.
- Total points under 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: ProphetX lists over 47 at 73.68c (-280) versus under 47.5 at 55.95c (-127); only 47 points is a push caveat.
- Season scoring averages combine for 37.6 points (Mercyhurst 20.6, Stonehill 17.0), 9.9 below this threshold.
- Both offenses are negative EPA/play (-0.093 Mercyhurst, -0.085 Stonehill) with modest explosive rates (13.8% and 11.8%).
- Mercyhurst's defense allows 41.75 points per game, giving Stonehill a path to score efficiently.
- Stonehill Skyhawks spread −6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Stonehill's SRS is -34.5 versus Mercyhurst's -52.1, a 17.6-point rating gap against a 6.5-point spread.
- Through eight games, Stonehill's scoring margin is -4.9 per game versus Mercyhurst's -21.1, a 16.3-point form gap.
- Stonehill allows -0.045 defensive EPA/play versus Mercyhurst at +0.251, a meaningful efficiency advantage for the home side.
- Stonehill's offense is weak at -0.085 EPA/play and 17.0 points per game, so separation may be difficult.
Win chance, start to finish
50%STONMERCKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Mercyhurst vs. Stonehill?
The Stonehill won 34–28 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.