Missouri vs. ArkansasFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDonald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium

Missouri5–2

34–10Final

Arkansas3–4

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIZ	10	3	14	7	34
ARK	0	7	6	0	10

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 51.5 59¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 14-11 on this game · +0% return

Missouri Tigers spread −102 models agree
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, ProphetX CFB Lines
Why 2 models like it
Drift
- Model 54.0% on Missouri -10; MIZ has +0.097 offensive EPA/play and -0.079 defensive EPA allowed versus Arkansas +0.010 and +0.154.
- Most likely loss: Arkansas stays within 10 at home; ESPN's pregame projection had Missouri's margin at only +8.84.
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Most likely loss: Arkansas creates enough efficient drives to keep Missouri within nine; a Missouri margin of exactly 10 is a push, not a win.
Game total under 492 models agree
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB
Why 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs
- Seven-game sample: Missouri offense +0.097 EPA/play versus Arkansas defense +0.154 allowed, a -0.057 matchup gap.
- Arkansas offense is only +0.010 EPA/play; Missouri defense allows -0.079 EPA/play, while Arkansas averages 1.747 points per drive.
- Most likely loss: Arkansas sustains explosive drives and Missouri's offense rebounds, pushing the game above 49.
Key Number CFB
- scoring/allowance blend projects 49.2; Missouri defense allows -0.079 EPA/play, Arkansas allows +0.154.
- 2026 PFF defense grades favor Missouri 89.1 to 71.0; sportsbook totals also center on 48.5.
- Most likely loss: 50 or more points; under 49 pushes at exactly 49 rather than winning.
Arkansas Razorbacks +10.52 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, BETALAB 6.0
Why 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System
- Arkansas covered +10.5 in 3 of its last 5 games and 5 of 7 in 2026; no pushes in that retrospective application.
- ESPN FPI projects Missouri by 8.839 points; +10.5 is 1.661 points above that published margin, with Arkansas at home.
- The seven-game sample is thin; the exact-line hit rate is retrospective, opponent-dependent, and not a calibrated probability.
BETALAB 6.0
- Current books show Arkansas +9.5/+10, while Polymarket US preserves +10.5 at 51.5c.
- Recent EPA: Missouri offense +0.097 and defense allowed -0.079 per play; Arkansas is +0.010 and +0.154, so the value is margin protection, not team superiority.
- Arkansas WR Chris Marshall remains a game-time decision; reporters said he did not take pregame wide-receiver drills.
Arkansas Razorbacks to winLong shot2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 23¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
ProphetX Pairs
- The model's projected margin is Missouri -8.839, but still leaves a larger Arkansas upset tail than +335 implies.
- Pinnacle shows Arkansas +321; reference only, while ProphetX improves the price to +335.
- Missouri's FBS-only 2026 offense leads Arkansas in EPA/play, 0.0585 to -0.0053; Arkansas remains a substantial underdog.
Long Way Home
- Home field and a projected one-score game create a larger outright-win branch than the market's +10.5 spread-to-moneyline conversion suggests.
- Missouri's offense and defense are materially stronger season-to-date: +0.097 offensive EPA/play and -0.079 defensive EPA allowed versus Arkansas at +0.010 and +0.154.
Game total under 51.5
+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Under 48.5 total
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Missouri-Arkansas combined recent scoring profile is depressed by Missouri's 3-point Ole Miss output and Arkansas's 21.0-point season average.
- Full coverage: both SEC teams have seven 2026 advanced rows; named QBs Austin Simmons and KJ Jackson match latest pass-attempt leaders.
- Most likely loss: Missouri's explosive offense rebounds and Arkansas converts enough efficient drives to reach 49 points.

Show all 21 picks

Over 48.5 total
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model 52.5% over, projecting roughly 49.5 total points from current-season efficiency and scoring inputs.
- Missouri averages 31.1 points and +0.097 offensive EPA/play; Arkansas allows 26.7 points and +0.154 defensive EPA/play.
- Three exact-rung books, DraftKings, BetMGM and BetOnline, devig to a 50.0% over reference at 48.5.
- Most likely loss: Arkansas controls pace and Missouri's offense regresses after scoring three points in its latest game.
Cayden Lee over 78.5 receiving yards
−100%Lost
Taken at −125 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 5 of 7 games over 78.5; season average is 96.9 yards.
- Expected WR1 with depth order 1; 153 snaps across his last three games.
- Arkansas has allowed +0.204 defensive EPA per play over its recent 10-game window.
- Missouri's recent 44.7% pass rate creates real run-heavy game-script risk.
Missouri Tigers first-half winnerFavorite
+6%Won
Taken at 94¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; DERIVED REFERENCE (raised 4.5-point bar), not a genuine first-half sharp quote: pregame Pinnacle Mizz -393/full-game -10.5 scaled to the live half state.
- Live score is Missouri 10, Arkansas 0 at Q1 3:41; Arkansas has produced zero points and one interception.
- Live EPA: Arkansas offense -0.617/play; Missouri defense allowed -0.617/play through the current game feed.
- This is three-way: the 4¢ tie contract and 7¢ Arkansas contract both defeat Missouri YES.
Missouri Tigers first-half spread NO 9.5
+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- [PROJECTION] 2026 team EPA inputs: Missouri offense +0.097/play, Arkansas defense allows +0.154; reverse matchup is -0.035/play.
- 71.7 average plays/game implies roughly an 11.5-point full-game differential before venue adjustment; first-half mean projects to Missouri +4.8.
- 3,660 FBS finals from 2022-25 produced empirical full-game SD 14.61; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 10.33, not 7.30.
- Only seven 2026 games feed the team-efficiency projection; schedule strength and the simple EPA blend are material uncertainties.
Missouri Tigers spread −9
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Seven-game FBS sample: Missouri offense averages +0.097 EPA/play against Arkansas defense allowing +0.154 EPA/play.
- Counter-mismatch favors Missouri: Arkansas offense averages +0.010 EPA/play against Missouri defense allowing -0.079 EPA/play.
- Missouri leads current PFF overall 91.0, 74.0 and defense 89.1, 71.0; both teams have seven-game samples.
- Most likely loss: Arkansas converts home-field possessions into a backdoor score; Missouri scored only 3 points in its latest game.
Missouri Tigers 1st-half winnerFavorite
+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Missouri averaged +0.042 offensive EPA/play over its last five; Arkansas allowed +0.187 defensive EPA/play.
- Missouri’s 26.0-second pace and 14.4% explosive rate exceed Arkansas’s 29.0 seconds and 10.8%.
- The matchup-side differential favors Missouri: Arkansas offense averaged +0.023 EPA/play against Missouri’s -0.008 defensive EPA/play allowed.
- Five-game samples are unadjusted for opponent quality and include Missouri’s 3-point output at Ole Miss.
Arkansas +10.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are Arkansas 3 vs Missouri 3; the two core measures agree, but levels do not corroborate.
- Venue self-reference only; no independent ticket or handle reference supports the order-flow read.
Missouri Tigers spread −10.5
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Missouri averages 0.097 EPA/play and allows -0.079 EPA/play defensively, versus Arkansas at 0.010 and +0.154.
- Most likely loss: Missouri wins by 10 or fewer; the exact-10 key number is a live push/cover boundary.
Total Points over 48.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Current scoring averages total 52.1 points: Missouri 31.1 and Arkansas 21.0; Missouri's 2.38 points/drive is materially above Arkansas's 1.75.
- The internal ladder is only a secondary check: the 48.5 game rung sits 1.5 points above the 29.5 Missouri plus 17.5 Arkansas team-total anchors; the projection, not venue self-reference, is the edge.
- Most likely loss: Missouri's -0.0794 defensive EPA/play allowed suppresses Arkansas near 17 or lower, leaving the Tigers needing 32-plus.
Game total over 48.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Missouri averages 31.1 points and Arkansas allows 26.7 across seven 2026 games; the combined profile clears 48.5.
- Missouri’s offense posts +0.059 EPA/play while Arkansas allows +0.215 defensive EPA/play, the matchup’s clearest scoring path.
- Missouri’s defense allows -0.059 EPA/play, while Arkansas averages only 21.0 points; the Razorbacks failing to contribute is the likeliest loss path.
Missouri Tigers first-half spread NO 6.5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 7-game EPA blend produces a Missouri first-half mean near +5.9 points.
- Three-season FBS sample: 2,848 games, full-game margin SD 15.46; square-root half scaling gives SD 10.93.
- Pinnacle Missouri -10 full-game; halving the mean supports this neighborhood without halving variance.
- REFERENCE only: no independent first-half sharp quote; structural argument caps this at LEAN.
Game first-half total over 24.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; 7-game averages are 72.0 Missouri plays at 26.37 seconds/play and 71.43 Arkansas plays at 28.79.
- Drive arithmetic: 71.7 projected first-half plays divided by 5.57 Missouri and 6.33 Arkansas plays/drive gives 12.05 drives.
- Baseline points/drive is 2.064; combined PROE .1098 and explosive rate .1216 produce a derived 6.7% opening-script uplift.
- The 12.05-drive estimate is the hinge; two early punts or sacks can erase the 2.0-point cushion.
Game total over 54
−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Two of three measures align: over is thin at quote and deeper in total; book-level count ties, so it does not corroborate.
- Directional check: backing over 54, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-levels tie 3-3, so there is no third-measure participant-count confirmation.
Total points under 45.5
+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- live CFB data shows Arkansas at -0.3826 EPA/play and Missouri at -0.5496 through 14 plays, with only 3 points and an Arkansas interception.
- Only 14 live plays is a tiny sample; one explosive touchdown or short field can break the under.
Total points under 48.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Recent three-game combined totals average 43.8, with Missouri at 43.0 and Arkansas at 44.7.
- Missouri’s defense allows -0.079 EPA/play this season; Arkansas’s offense averages only 0.010 EPA/play.
- Most likely loss: Missouri creates explosive plays against an Arkansas defense allowing 0.154 EPA/play.

Win chance, start to finish

50%ARKMIZKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Missouri vs. Arkansas?

The Missouri won 34–10 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.