Wagner vs. MerrimackFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDuane Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAGN | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| MERR | 0 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWagner Seahawks spread +15.5 −109
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Season efficiency blend makes Merrimack roughly -9; +15.5 supplies about 6.5 points of fair-line cushion.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-1 on this game · +54% return
- Wagner Seahawks spread +14.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Margin density: exact 14 occurred 476/11,423 times (4.2%), versus 178/11,423 exact 15s (1.6%); the adjacent +14.5 rung is not priced as a flat step.
- PFF still favors Merrimack 69.9 to 61.3, but the gap supports a favorite without requiring a 15-point win.
- The ticket loses on a Merrimack win by 15 or more; exact 15-17 margins together are meaningful tail outcomes.
Long Way Home- 2026 season margin averages imply roughly a 7, 10 point Merrimack edge, below the posted 14.5-point spread.
- Merrimack averages 17.9 points per game; Wagner averages 13.1, but Merrimack has allowed 28.8 per game.
- Most likely loss: Wagner’s defense repeats its 38.8-points-allowed season average and Merrimack wins by 15 or more.
- Merrimack Warriors −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Merrimack grades 69.9 overall versus Wagner 61.3; recent records are 3-5 versus 1-7, with Wagner 0-5 over its last five.
- Merrimack must win by 15; a competitive game or late backdoor score loses despite the stronger profile.
- Wagner Seahawks spread +15.5+92%Won
Taken at −109 on BetRivers
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season efficiency blend makes Merrimack roughly -9; +15.5 supplies about 6.5 points of fair-line cushion.
- Recent four-game averages: Merrimack 21.5 scored/23.75 allowed; Wagner 14.25 scored/34.75 allowed, pointing near Merrimack -9.
- Both teams have seven days' rest; current pregame listings name Benjamin Newman and AJ Hairston Jr. as the quarterbacks.
- Wagner allows 38.75 points per game; explosive defensive breakdowns or short fields can erase the cushion quickly.
- Wagner Seahawks +16.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SRS gap is only 8.8 points (Merrimack -41.6 vs Wagner -50.4), materially below the 16.5-point spread.
- Wagner's current eight-game margin is -25.6 versus Merrimack's -10.9; the recent gap supports Merrimack, but not a full 16.5 points.
- Grade B; research quality 64/100. ML Merrimack at 88c and Under 48.5 at 66c were less protected after fees; alternate Wagner +17.5 was 63.5c.
- Both teams' expected lineups are projections with no observed availability report; FCS status coverage is incomplete.
Win chance, start to finish
50%MERRWAGNKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Wagner vs. Merrimack?
The Merrimack won 19–14 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.