Miami vs. North CarolinaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalKenan Stadium

Miami7–0

38–35Final

North Carolina4–3

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	7	10	7	14	38
UNC	0	14	7	14	35

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 53.5 total 50¢

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 13-13 on this game · −11% return

Miami Hurricanes −13.53 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
3 modelsCFB HunterV2, ProphetX Pairs +1
Why 3 models like it
CFB HunterV2
- ESPN FPI projects Miami by 18.54 points; the posted spread is 13.5.
- Miami’s recent offense EPA/play is 0.3656 versus North Carolina’s 0.0962.
- Expected, not official, lineups remain the college-football availability standard.
ProphetX Pairs
- Miami leads North Carolina by 0.320 EPA/play offensively, .055 in success rate, and .061 in explosive rate across six FBS games.
- Miami’s defensive EPA is -0.021 versus North Carolina’s +0.056 allowed; ESPN projects Miami by 18.54 points versus the 13.5-point rung.
- The expected college lineups are not official; a late quarterback or key-skill-player change would materially alter the projection.
Rnj
- 18.54-point Miami fair margin from ESPN's FPI matchup projection; versus -13.5, the modeled edge is 5.04 points.
- Six current-season FBS games each: Miami season EPA/play +0.358 offense and -0.021 defense-allowed; UNC +0.038 and +0.056.
- Miami's recent three-game defensive EPA allowed worsened to +0.097, versus -0.021 season-long; UNC's recent defense improved to +0.010.
Over 53.5 total2 models agree
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines
Why 2 models like it
Saturday Board
- Most likely loss: North Carolina's 2.35 points per drive and Miami's defensive efficiency hold the game below 54 points.
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Load-bearing possession factor favors the Over: Miami and North Carolina average 74.3 and 62.7 plays, while Miami's explosive rate is 17.9% and combined points-per-drive average is 6.17.
- Most likely loss: Miami's -0.057 defensive EPA allowed suppresses North Carolina enough for 53 or fewer points.
Miami Hurricanes spread −13.52 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at −122 on FanDuel
2 modelsShort Week, Saturday Board Pairs
Why 2 models like it
Short Week
- Miami leads the season EPA/play comparison by roughly 0.35: +0.439 offense versus UNC +0.089.
- Miami is 7-0 with a +33.7 recent scoring margin; UNC is 4-3 with only a +3.6 recent margin.
- Miami has six players ruled out, including several defenders, which could create backdoor vulnerability.
Saturday Board Pairs
- Seven-game 2026 FBS sample: Miami offense +0.4385 EPA/play versus UNC's +0.0288 defensive EPA allowed, a +0.4097 matchup gap.
- Miami leads current success rate .5502-.4908 and explosive rate .1787-.1157; points per drive are 3.815 versus 2.350.
- Most likely loss: UNC's home field and Billy Edwards Jr. sustain enough drives for a backdoor cover inside 13.5.
Game total over 53.52 models agree
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
2 modelsD1 Winner, Key Number CFB
Why 2 models like it
D1 Winner
- Miami averaged 0.439 offensive EPA/play versus North Carolina's 0.029 defensive EPA/play allowed.
- Miami's 55.0% success rate and 17.9% explosive-play rate exceed UNC's 49.1% and 11.6%.
- A Miami blowout could reduce fourth-quarter pace and leave the Tar Heels below their scoring expectation.
Key Number CFB
- Most likely loss: 53 or fewer total points; the internal ladder edge is modest and does not eliminate ordinary scoring variance.
Miami Hurricanes to winFavorite2 models agree
+20%Won
Taken at 83¢ on Novig
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System
- Research grade 77/100 (B): team-market gates clear; no player-prop exact-line gate applies.
- ESPN FPI MATCHUP model projects Miami 89.8% to win and an 18.54-point margin.
- Both lineups are expected rather than confirmed; North Carolina left tackle Andrew Threatt is a game-time decision.
Long Way Home
- ESPN pregame model gives Miami an 89.8% win probability; ProphetX -500 implies 83.3%.
- Miami ranks No. 3 in FPI at 27.518; North Carolina ranks No. 43 at 7.328.
- Miami has six official Game Day outs, and college lineups remain expected rather than confirmed.
Total Points over 53.52 models agree
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTempo Board, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Tempo Board
- Miami averages 49.0 points; UNC allows +0.0288 defensive EPA/play, while Miami allows -0.0569 and UNC averages 24.4 points.
- About 68.5 combined plays are implied by the pace averages; Miami’s explosive-play advantage creates a 57% over estimate.
- Most likely loss: Miami’s -0.0569 defensive EPA allowed suppresses UNC near 17 or lower, requiring 37-plus Miami points.
Long Way Home
- Pinnacle also prices over 53.5, but at -110 versus ProphetX +115.
- Miami averages 49.0 points and North Carolina 24.4 before kickoff; their combined 73.4-point scoring profile clears 53.5.
- North Carolina may stall offensively, leaving Miami to carry nearly all remaining scoring.

Show all 19 picks

North Carolina Tar Heels to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Polymarket global is accepting orders; $6,629 traded and the executable complement is about 17¢.
- Miami has a 7-0 record and a +25.4 recent scoring margin; North Carolina is 4-3 with a -2.4 recent margin.
Malachi Toney over 105.5 receiving yards
−100%Lost
Taken at −125 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Toney cleared 105.5 yards in 5 of 7 games, averaging 136.0 yards.
- He is the expected Miami SRWR1, with 202 snaps across the last three charted games.
- Miami averages 0.439 offensive EPA/play, a 55.0% success rate, and a 17.9% explosive-play rate.
- Pinnacle disagrees nearby: over 104.5 at +100 and under at -132.
Miami Hurricanes first-half spread NO 13.5Favorite
+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle’s live full-game Miami -13.5 implies a scaled first-half mean of +6.75 Miami points.
- 4,569 FBS regular-season finals from 2022, 26 have full-game margin SD 15.11; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 10.68, not 7.55.
- 13.5 sits on the monotone Kalshi ladder; the rung has 391.77 contracts traded, 231.88 in 24h, and a 1¢ width.
- First-half margins are not directly observed here; normality, additive possession variance, and square-root scaling may misstate discrete scoring tails.
Game 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Miami averaged 3.50 points per drive over its last five games and UNC averaged 2.25, implying roughly 12-13 first-quarter points at expected opening possession counts.
- Miami's 74.2 average plays and 30.8-second pace over the last five support more early possessions than a low-tempo profile.
- Miami's last-five explosive rate was 15.9% versus UNC's 10.1%, increasing the chance of an early scoring swing.
- The first quarter is only about five possessions per team, so one red-zone failure, turnover, or busted coverage dominates the sample.
Miami Hurricanes 1st-half winnerFavorite
+39%Won
Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Last five: Miami averaged +0.303 offensive EPA/play versus UNC +0.068, while defensive EPA allowed was -0.010 versus +0.098.
- Miami's last-five success rate was 52.5% with a 15.9% explosive rate; UNC was 48.4% and 10.1%.
- Miami averaged 3.50 points per drive versus UNC's 2.25, supporting a stronger opening script with both QBs expected.
- The 75% estimate is only three points above the Kalshi price and uses the Kalshi three-way board as the substitute reference.
Game over 53.5 total points
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Miami averages 49.0 points and +33.7 margin through seven games; UNC averages 24.4 points and +3.6 margin.
- Recent form: Miami 5-0, +25.4 average margin; UNC 2-3, -2.4 average margin.
- Market choice: 50c full-game total offers better protection than Miami ML at 84c or the -13.5 spread at 52.5c.
- Projected total is only about 54-55 points, so a single red-zone failure or turnover swing changes the result.
Miami Hurricanes −14 spread
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- ProphetX prices Miami -14 at +107 (48.31c) versus Miami -13.5 at -113 (53.05c): a 4.74-point implied-price gap versus 1.52 points of directional push mass.
- Miami -14 wins only by 15 or more; a 14-point Miami win pushes rather than wins.
Miami Hurricanes spread −14.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Miami allows -0.0569 defensive EPA/play versus North Carolina's +0.0288; Miami is 7-0 with a +33.7 recent margin profile.
- Most likely loss: Miami wins by 14 or fewer; exact 14 is a live key-number landing.
Game total over 54.5
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Seven-game current FBS sample: Miami offense +0.4385 EPA/play versus UNC defense allowing +0.0288, a +0.4097 matchup gap.
- UNC offense +0.0892 EPA/play versus Miami defense allowing -0.0569, while success rates are .5502 and .4908 and explosives .1787 and .1157.
- Points per drive are 3.815 for Miami and 2.350 for UNC; PROE is +10.5% and +12.2% despite a slower 30.21/28.33 seconds-per-play pace.
- Most likely loss: UNC stalls against Miami and the game lands below 55 points despite a Miami-led score, such as a 38-10 type result.
Game first-half total over 27.5 points
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game 53.5; 11 first-half drives and a 26% uplift imply 53.6% scoring share, or 28.7 points.
- PROE averages 10.5% Miami and 12.2% UNC; explosive rates are 17.9% and 11.6%, supporting scripted-half scoring.
- Model mean 28.7 versus the 27.5 rung gives my 57% over probability.
- The seven-game first-half sample is noisy; raw drive-result scoring is much hotter, so I deliberately haircut the uplift.
Game total under 52.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only, ProphetX's own ladder, with no independent sharp reference.
- Directional check: backing under 52.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- The signal is entirely venue self-reference; no independent projection or sharp reference supports it.
Miami Hurricanes −14
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Directional check: backing Miami -14, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Venue self-reference only; no independent order-flow or ticket-handle confirmation exists.
Miami Hurricanes spread −14
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Miami averages 49.0 points and +33.7 margin; North Carolina averages 24.4 points and +3.6 margin through seven games.
- Miami leads by 0.349 EPA/play offensively and 0.086 EPA/play defensively; the efficiency gap is larger than a 14-point baseline.
- Miami -14 is -108 at DraftKings and -112 at BetOnline; ProphetX pays +105 at the same number.
- Most likely loss: Miami wins but by 13 or fewer, with North Carolina's home field and late backdoor scoring deciding the margin.

Win chance, start to finish

50%UNCMIAKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Miami vs. North Carolina?

The Miami won 38–35 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.