Lamar vs. UT Rio Grande ValleyFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRobert and Janet Vackar Stadium

Lamar6–2

52–23Final

UT Rio Grande Valley4–4

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAMA	14	7	21	10	52
UT	6	3	0	14	23

Top model pick, graded

Won

Lamar Cardinals to win 68¢

Models went 5-0 on this game · +79% return

Lamar Cardinals to winFavorite2 models agree
+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCFB Heater, Heater Two-Hour
Lamar Cardinals spread −5.52 models agree
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Key Number CFB
- Lamar leads 2026 offense EPA/play 0.1222 to UTRGV's 0.0066; defensive EPA allowed is similar (-0.0261 vs -0.0379).
- Recent form favors Lamar: 6-2 and +16.8 average margin over eight, versus UTRGV 4-4 and +0.4.
- Most likely loss: Lamar wins by five or fewer; -5.5 has no push protection.
Long Way Home
- Lamar's last six margins average +15.0; UTRGV's last six margins average -0.2.
- Lamar averaged +0.236 offensive EPA/play across six listed games; UTRGV averaged -0.032.
- Most likely loss: Lamar leads narrowly but fails to clear six points; one-score variance dominates.
Total points over 49.5
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Lamar's last four offenses averaged 0.257 EPA/play; UTRGV's last four averaged -0.070.
- Recent scoring and defensive form projects roughly 55, 56 total points, above the 49.5 rung.
- Lamar scored 35+ in four of its last five; UTRGV's defense allowed 27 and 41 in its last two.
- Most likely loss: UTRGV's offense repeats its 19.0-point average from the last four, leaving Lamar to carry the total alone.

50%UTLAMAKickoff

Oct 31Final

The Lamar won 52–23 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.