Grambling vs. Texas SouthernFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalShell Energy Stadium
Grambling4–3
20–23Final
Texas Southern2–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRAM | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
| TEX | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 23 |
How the picks did
Models went 0-5 on this game · −100% return
- Grambling Tigers to win−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
BETALAB 6.0- Grambling recent offense: +0.1004 EPA/play, 44.5% success, 13.9% explosive rate, and 2.372 points per drive.
- Texas Southern recent offense: −0.0264 EPA/play, 42.4% success, 11.7% explosive rate, and 1.757 points per drive.
- Texas Southern has home field at Shell Energy Stadium, while Grambling's recent defense allowed 0.247 EPA/play.
Long Way Home- Grambling averaged +0.150 offensive EPA/play before kickoff versus Texas Southern’s +0.033.
- Grambling led pregame success rate .458-.434 and explosive-play rate .151-.124.
- The game is 0-0 after Q1; Texas Southern reached the Grambling 7 before a fumble, creating live field-position uncertainty.
- Game total over 62.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Offensive EPA/play is +0.150 and +0.033; opposing defensive EPA allowed is +0.210 and +0.276.
- Explosive-play rates are 15.1% and 12.4%; Houston forecast is mostly sunny with a 20% shower chance.
- Both quarterbacks are expected, not officially confirmed: Jacobe Robinson and Cam'Ron McCoy; a late change is material.
- Grambling Tigers spread −4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- my matchup estimate makes Grambling roughly 56% to cover -4.5.
- Grambling's prior seven games averaged 36.7 points scored versus Texas Southern's 24.9.
- Texas Southern allowed 43.0 points per game in those seven; Grambling's offense posted 0.315+ EPA/play in two recent wins.
- Most likely loss: Grambling wins by four or fewer, or Texas Southern wins outright.
- Total points over 62.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 14 team-games averaged 71.9 combined points; this market needs 63.
- Grambling game totals averaged 76.0; Texas Southern averaged 67.9; their recent-four averages were 83.0 and 69.0.
- Common-opponent totals were 35 and 66 versus Prairie View, then 122 and 83 versus Alcorn; 3 of 4 cleared 62.5.
- Most likely loss: Texas Southern repeats its 24-21 Southern game while Grambling plays conservatively.
Win chance, start to finish
50%TEXGRAMKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Grambling vs. Texas Southern?
The Texas Southern won 23–20 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.