Gardner-Webb vs. Southeast Missouri StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHouck Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GARD | 10 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
| SOUT | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs to win +199
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Model: 21.6 away points vs 23.4 home points before venue adjustment; three-point home field gives SEMO a 4.8-point margin.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −25% return
- Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs to win+199%Won
Taken at +199 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 21.6 away points vs 23.4 home points before venue adjustment; three-point home field gives SEMO a 4.8-point margin.
- Normal score-difference approximation gives Gardner-Webb a 38.9% win probability from eight-game scoring means and 17.1-point combined SD.
- SEMO is 4-1 with a +9.2 L5 margin; Gardner-Webb is 2-3 with a 0.0 L5 margin, but the price exceeds the gap.
- Only eight 2026 games per team; the normal approximation and three-point home-field assumption are not calibrated probabilities.
- Southeast Missouri State Redhawks −6.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SEMO recent eight-game offense EPA/play is +0.01 versus Gardner-Webb -0.14.
- SEMO holds major PFF trench advantages: 78.4 pass-block and 93.1 run-defense grades versus 48.5 and 85.4.
- Gardner-Webb's last two games without its regular quarterback produced 6 and 7 points, supporting a reduced scoring baseline.
- The live college lineup feed remains expected and lists Cole Pennington; the reported absence is not officially confirmed by an FCS injury feed.
- Southeast Missouri State Redhawks to win−100%Lost
Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- own 71% Southeast Missouri State win estimate versus ProphetX's 68.25¢ price.
- Southeast Missouri State is 4-1 with +9.2 average margin over its last five; Gardner-Webb is 2-3 at 0.0.
- Gardner-Webb's latest offense posted -0.63 EPA/play and 25.5% success, then -0.43 EPA/play and 36.6% success.
- Most likely loss: Gardner-Webb recovers its earlier explosive passing form and keeps this within one score.
- Total points under 43.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 scoring averages are Gardner-Webb 21.0 and Southeast Missouri State 24.4; their last-five scoring averages combine to 41.4.
- Gardner-Webb scored 6 and 7 in its two most recent games, with only 16.6 points per game across its last five.
- The full-season scoring averages imply 45.4 combined points, above this number.
Win chance, start to finish
50%SOUTGARDKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Gardner-Webb vs. Southeast Missouri State?
Gardner-Webb won 34-10 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.