Drake vs. Morehead StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalPhil Simms Stadium

Drake2–6

45–35Final

Morehead State2–6

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
DRAK	7	10	0	28	45
MORE	7	0	14	14	35

Top model pick, graded

Won

Morehead State Eagles +10.5 53¢

Why BETALAB 6.0 likes it: Season margin gap is only 5.5 points before home field: Drake -9.75, Morehead State -15.25.

BETALAB 6.0Down 10% this season · 273 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-1 on this game · +62% return

Morehead State Eagles +10.52 models agree
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, CFB HunterV2
Why 2 models like it
BETALAB 6.0
- Season margin gap is only 5.5 points before home field: Drake -9.75, Morehead State -15.25.
- Morehead State owns +0.0485 offensive EPA/play and an 83.6 defensive PFF grade versus Drake's +0.0098 and 73.6.
- Drake's market-implied 77.5% win probability may encode talent or schedule information absent from the warehouse.
CFB HunterV2
- SRS rates Morehead State -43.2 versus Drake -46.9; home field makes a 10.5-point gap aggressive.
- Current EPA: Morehead offense +0.048/play versus Drake -0.010; opponent SRS averages are nearly identical (-38.15 versus -38.84).
- Drake passes on 67.1% of plays, and its defensive EPA profile is materially better than Morehead State's.
Morehead State Eagles +10
0%Push
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
EPA MismatchUp 15% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- SRS rates Morehead State 3.7 points better on a neutral field: -43.2 versus Drake -46.9.
- PFF overall grades favor Morehead State 73.4-71.7; defensive grades favor the Eagles 83.6-73.6.
- Morehead State recent offensive EPA is +0.048 per play versus Drake's -0.010 across eight games.
- Morehead State's defense allows +0.252 EPA per play versus Drake's +0.131, the clearest matchup disadvantage.
Game over 60.5 total points
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Over 60 and over 60.5 both win at 61+; over 60 pushes at exactly 60, while over 60.5 loses.
- Exact 60 occurred 105 of 10,371 completed 2014, 25 CFB games: 1.012%.
- ProphetX prices over 60 at 53.05¢ (-113) versus over 60.5 at 47.85¢ (+109): a 5.20¢ gap.
- Total points 60 or fewer loses; this is not a projection of either offense.
Morehead State +10.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Exact 10-point margins occurred in 4.228% of completed CFB games in the warehouse sample.
- ProphetX prices Morehead +10.5 at 51.69c (-107) versus whole-number +10 at 52.61c (-111): the half-point is cheaper.
- No projection is claimed: historical exact-margin mass does not establish which side covers this matchup.
Morehead State Eagles to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Morehead State scored 38 and 31 in its last two games, with +0.1497 and +0.1485 offensive EPA/play.
- Drake lost its last two, scoring 21 and 22; its latest offensive EPA/play was -0.1259.
- My estimated win probability is 28%, above ProphetX's 23.81c price; this is a projection edge, not payout chasing.
- The most likely loss is Morehead's defense failing to contain Drake; it allowed 31 and 34 in its last two.
Morehead State +10.5 spread
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Drake's last three offensive EPA/play marks are -0.126, +0.034, and -0.256; the market still lays 10.5.
- Morehead's latest two offensive EPA/play marks are +0.150 and +0.149, while its SRS rating (-43.2) is 3.7 points better than Drake's (-46.9).
- Most likely ticket path: Morehead stays within two scores; this is a projection edge, not a payout-size argument.
- Morehead is 1-4 with a -23.0 average margin over its last five; Drake is 2-3 with a +0.4 average margin.

Win chance, start to finish

50%MOREDRAKKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Drake vs. Morehead State?

The Drake won 45–35 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.