South Carolina vs. OklahomaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMemorial Stadium (Norman

South Carolina4–3

42–25Final

Oklahoma4–3

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
SC	7	21	7	7	42
OU	0	10	0	15	25

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 44.5 total 50¢

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 20-8 on this game · +44% return

Oklahoma Sooners to win4 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket
4 modelsCFB Heater, Picks With Pink Grading System +2
Why 4 models like it
CFB Heater
- Momentum is concentrated on Oklahoma while the main market remains near a 60% fair-moneyline baseline.
- South Carolina's recent offense is +0.143 EPA/play over five games versus Oklahoma's -0.052.
Picks With Pink Grading System
- FanDuel moved from -156 to -152 while Oklahoma remains favored; executable price is current at 12:36 PM PT.
- Research grade 72/100 (B): model, price, movement, form, injuries and expected roles checked.
- The model margin is only 1.316 points above the -3.5 market spread, so one-score variance is substantial.
ProphetX Pairs
- The same model projects Oklahoma by 4.816 points; the backed side has home field and the higher FPI rating, 14.165 to 12.198.
- Current-season FBS-only defense: Oklahoma allowed -0.071 EPA/play versus South Carolina's +0.124; lower allowed EPA favors Oklahoma.
- South Carolina's offense is the major counter-signal: +0.239 EPA/play versus Oklahoma's -0.015.
Long Way Home
- Oklahoma's early deficit has created a large price gap: ProphetX +142 is 41.32¢ versus Pinnacle +126 at 44.25¢ implied.
- South Carolina's opening drive scored, but its offense is -0.344 EPA/play and Oklahoma's defense is -0.344 allowed through the live sample.
- Most likely loss: South Carolina's early lead becomes sustained while Oklahoma's offense remains inefficient; OU is currently -0.687 EPA/play.
Game total over 44.53 models agree
+93%Won
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
3 modelsTempo Gap, Kickoff Ledger +1
Why 3 models like it
Tempo Gap
- Drive-based matchup estimate is South Carolina 26.2, Oklahoma 22.3; both teams have seven current-season games, full coverage.
- Opponent-adjusted EPA: South Carolina offense +0.143/play; its 2.93 points per drive and 14.1% explosive rate create over-tail upside.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma's defense, -0.219 opponent-adjusted defensive EPA and 17.7 points allowed per game, suppresses South Carolina.
Kickoff Ledger
- Fair total 48.0: South Carolina offense averages +0.232 EPA/play versus Oklahoma's -0.071 defensive EPA allowed.
- Oklahoma's offense is -0.015 EPA/play, but South Carolina's defense allows +0.113; the matchup gives both attacks a path to efficient drives.
- Rain is the key risk: even light showers can reduce explosive plays and fourth-down aggression.
CFB HunterV2
- South Carolina averaged +0.2148 offensive EPA/play and a 0.4768 success rate across eight recent games.
- Oklahoma's offense is only -0.012 EPA/play and averages 21.6 points per game in 2026.
- Oklahoma's 85.5 defense and -0.0638 defensive EPA allowed can create stalled drives.
Over 44.5 total2 models agree
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines
Why 2 models like it
Saturday Board
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma's -0.071 defensive EPA allowed suppresses South Carolina and keeps the game at 44 points or fewer.
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Opponent-adjusted model mean is 48.0 points; conservative fair Over 44.5 probability is 56.0%.
- South Carolina averages 2.93 points per drive and a 14.1% explosive-play rate, supporting the Over tail.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma's -0.071 defensive EPA allowed and South Carolina's 25.3 points-against average suppress the game below 45.
South Carolina Gamecocks spread +3.52 models agree
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs
Why 2 models like it
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma's -0.071 defensive EPA allowed suppresses South Carolina's offense and produces a four-point-plus Sooners win.
Saturday Board Pairs
- game FBS sample: South Carolina averages +0.232 offensive EPA/play versus Oklahoma’s -0.071 defensive EPA allowed, a +0.303 matchup gap.
- Success rate favors South Carolina .486 to .453; explosiveness favors the Gamecocks .141 to .094, while Oklahoma offense averages -0.015 EPA/play.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma’s -0.071 defensive EPA/play and home field turn the matchup into a four-point-or-more Sooners win.
South Carolina Gamecocks to win2 models agree
+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsHeater Two-Hour, Saturday Board Pairs
Why 2 models like it
Heater Two-Hour
- Moneyline is liquid: Polymarket US reports approximately $355,000 traded and both sides quoted.
- South Carolina is 2-3 over its last five while Oklahoma is 3-2; the market may be correctly favoring Oklahoma.
Saturday Board Pairs
- seven-game FBS sample: South Carolina +0.2319 offensive EPA/play versus Oklahoma’s -0.0714 defensive EPA/play allowed, a +0.3033 matchup gap.
- South Carolina leads current success rate .4860, .4526 and explosive rate .1414, .0938; Oklahoma’s offense is -0.0155 EPA/play.
- Oklahoma’s defense allows -0.0714 EPA/play and carries an 85.5 PFF grade versus South Carolina’s 83.2; home field can turn this into a narrow Sooners win.
Game total over 442 models agree
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB
Why 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs
- The combined pace averages 24.96 seconds per play, and South Carolina’s .1414 explosive rate plus Oklahoma’s .0938 leave a path to the mid-40s despite Oklahoma’s weak offense.
- Oklahoma’s -0.0714 defensive EPA/play allowed and 85.5 PFF defense can suppress South Carolina; Oklahoma’s 1.627 points per drive also creates a clear under path.
Key Number CFB
- A simple 2026 points-for/against blend projects 50.4 points: South Carolina 26.9, Oklahoma 23.4.
- South Carolina averages +0.232 EPA/play offensively; Oklahoma allows -0.071 defensively, while South Carolina's defense allows +0.113.
- Most likely loss: the game finishes 43 or fewer; Oklahoma's defense and South Carolina's recent defensive volatility create a low-scoring path.

Show all 19 picks

LaNorris Sellers over 0.5 passing touchdownsFavorite
+36%Won
Taken at −280 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 6 of Sellers' 7 2026 games included at least one passing touchdown.
- South Carolina averages 2.925 points per drive and +0.232 offensive EPA per play this season.
- Oklahoma's recent defense allows -0.026 EPA per play, and its coverage grade is 80.2.
South Carolina Gamecocks first-half winnerFavorite
+45%Won
Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle’s live full-game -147/+126 devigs to 57.4% South Carolina; live 7-0 with 0:57 left in Q1 lifts the first-half estimate to 78%.
- Season-to-date excluding this game: South Carolina averages +0.232 offensive EPA/play, 48.6% success and 2.93 points/drive versus Oklahoma’s -0.015, 45.3% and 1.63.
- DERIVED REFERENCE, not a genuine first-half sharp quote; full-game strength must be translated into a first-half distribution.
Oklahoma Sooners first-half spread over 7.5Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game Oklahoma -3.5 scales to a +1.75 first-half mean.
- 3,681-game FBS sample (2023-26) has SD 15.22; sqrt-half scaling gives 10.76, not the naive 7.61.
- absolute 7-point margins are the second-largest computed college cluster; 7.5 sits immediately beyond that mass.
- Only seven 2026 games per team; opponent adjustment and the matchup mean remain sample-sensitive.
Game 1st-half total over 22.5 points
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- South Carolina's last three points-per-drive average is 2.75; Oklahoma's is 1.38, a 4.13 combined rate.
- Recent PROE is +0.140 for South Carolina and +0.090 for Oklahoma, supporting aggressive opening scripts.
- The pace sample supports roughly five to six drives per team in a half; the projection is approximately 23 points.
- point projection has little cushion over 22.5; one stalled red-zone trip loses the over.
South Carolina Gamecocks 1st-half winner
+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- SC's last three offensive EPA/play average is +0.154 versus Oklahoma defense allowing +0.038.
- Oklahoma's last three offensive EPA/play averages +0.002 against South Carolina defense allowing +0.056.
- South Carolina's recent explosive-play rate is 13.6%, versus Oklahoma's 8.4%.
- Oklahoma has home field and the 1H market assigns it 52¢ versus South Carolina's 40¢.
Game over 44.5 total points
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- South Carolina averages 36.1 points and 0.232 offensive EPA/play through seven 2026 games.
- South Carolina's recent five-game scoring average is 30.2 points; Oklahoma's recent five-game combined scores average 39.8 points and its defense allowed 21.4 per game.
- Oklahoma's 2026 offense averages only 21.6 points and -0.015 offensive EPA/play; a slow Sooners offense can sink the over.
Oklahoma Sooners spread −3
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Adjacent -3.5 is +104 / 49.02c versus -3 at 54.34c: a 5.32-point probability step around the key three.
- CFB history records 1,056 exact-three margins in 11,423 regular/postseason games; this ladder interval is not flat.
- Projection leans Oklahoma at home: its defense allows -0.071 EPA/play versus South Carolina's +0.113, offsetting the Gamecocks' offensive EPA edge.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma wins by 1-2 or South Carolina wins outright; exactly three is a push, not a win.
Total Points over 44
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- South Carolina produced +0.2319 offensive EPA/play versus Oklahoma's -0.0714 defensive EPA/play allowed; Oklahoma's offense is weaker at -0.0155 EPA/play, but South Carolina allows +0.1134 defensive EPA/play.
- The 2026 scoring averages combine for 57.7 points, while sportsbook context is only 44-44.5; that is context for a projection, not the edge itself.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma's -0.0714 defensive EPA/play holds South Carolina below 24, while Oklahoma's inefficient offense stays under 20.
Oklahoma Sooners −3.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Season-to-date defense: Oklahoma allows -0.0714 EPA/play versus South Carolina's +0.1134 allowed, a 0.185 EPA/play gap.
- Pinnacle was -3.5 at -101; ProphetX still offers +102 on the same main number.
- South Carolina's offense averages +0.2319 EPA/play versus Oklahoma's -0.0155, the clearest route to an outright upset or narrow loss.
LaNorris Sellers over 1.5 passing touchdowns
+166%Won
Taken at +166 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 60% full-L10 exact-line rate: 6/10 games over 1.5 passing touchdowns, no pushes.
- Own probability 45%, 7.4 points above FanDuel's 37.6% break-even at +166.
- South Carolina averaged +0.226 offensive EPA/play over its last 10 games, supporting scoring opportunity.
- Oklahoma ranks 30th of 320 defenses by 2026 defensive EPA allowed (-0.0714/play).
Game over 22.5 first-half points
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 83 drives in seven games each; 142.57 combined plays ÷ 5.89 plays/drive gives 71.29 half-plays and 12.1 projected drives.
- Weather gust and precipitation are null, so no verified possession cut is applied.
Total points over 43.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Oklahoma averages 21.6 points; South Carolina averages 36.1 through seven games.
- Recent game totals average 41.0 for Oklahoma and 59.0 for South Carolina, supporting a higher-scoring script.
- Most likely loss: Oklahoma's 21.6-point offense stalls and the game finishes at 43 points or fewer.
Oklahoma Sooners spread −3.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- FPI rates Oklahoma 14.165 (18th) versus South Carolina 12.198 (29th), supporting the home-side gap.
- The market's 3.5-point number is below the model's 4.816-point projection, creating a plus-price cover angle.
- Only 1.316 projected points separate the model margin from -3.5; this is a thin projection edge.

Win chance, start to finish

50%OUSCKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won South Carolina vs. Oklahoma?

The South Carolina won 42–25 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.