Virginia vs. Wake ForestFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAllegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

Virginia4–4

7–51Final

Wake Forest6–1

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
UVA	0	0	7	0	7
WAKE	10	10	24	7	51

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 48.5 total 49¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: This total ranks above the Virginia +13.5 spread board; Virginia's existing open moneyline position is not repeated.

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How the picks did

Models went 13-12 on this game · +1% return

Virginia Cavaliers spread +13.53 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Heater Two-Hour +1
Why 3 models like it
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Model margin is Wake Forest +10.8 with about 17-point SD; Virginia +13.5 fair probability is 55.5%.
- Approximately 138.2 combined current-season plays at a blended 28.2 seconds per play limits possessions, reducing the favorite's runway; Tier 2 convergence supports the dog.
- Most likely loss: Wake Forest's +0.315 offensive EPA/play, 3.51 points per drive, and 15.9% explosive rate create a margin beyond 13.5.
Heater Two-Hour
- Flaviocaballero's 6-0 CFB sample is small despite the strong result.
BETALAB 6.0
- FPI matchup model projects Wake Forest by 12.516, leaving nearly one point of cushion versus +13.5.
- Virginia’s season defensive EPA allowed is 0.0030 versus Wake Forest’s 0.0124; the matchup is less one-sided than the 16-vs-48 FPI rankings.
- Wake leads season offensive EPA/play 0.3152 to 0.1371 and explosive rate 0.1588 to 0.1054.
Game total over 47.52 models agree
+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
2 modelsTempo Gap, D1 Winner
Why 2 models like it
Tempo Gap
- Projected 22.5 drives and roughly 138 combined plays from 11.75/10.71 drives per game.
- Wake averages 0.315 EPA/play, 51.4% success, and 3.51 points per drive; Virginia adds 0.137 EPA/play and 2.33 PPD.
- Opening 48.5 moved to DraftKings 47.5 at -115; Pinnacle still shows 48.5, so the market move cuts against the Over.
D1 Winner
- Efficiency: Wake's 0.315 offensive EPA/play and 0.514 success rate pair with Virginia's 0.137 EPA/play.
- Explosives support scoring: Wake's 15.9% explosive-play rate and Virginia's 10.5% create upside above 47.5.
- The total fell from 48.5 to 47.5, so the market signal leans against the over.
Virginia Cavaliers +13.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- ESPN FPI projects Wake by 12.5, one point short of the posted 13.5 spread.
- Wake is 6-1 with a +20.4 last-five scoring margin; Virginia is 2-3 at -0.4.
Over 48.5 total
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- This total ranks above the Virginia +13.5 spread board; Virginia's existing open moneyline position is not repeated.
- Most likely loss: Virginia's recent offensive slowdown continues and Wake's defense holds the Cavaliers below market expectations, leaving the game at 48 or fewer.
Virginia Cavaliers to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- The load-bearing factor is P(Virginia margin > 0) at 20.5%; both expected depth-chart QBs are cross-checked against the latest pass-attempt leaders, with Pribula also confirmed by same-day reporting.
- Most likely loss: Wake's superior offense (0.315 current EPA/play, 3.51 points/drive) converts its home advantage into a comfortable win.
Da'Shawn Martin under 38.5 receiving yards
−100%Lost
Taken at −125 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 38.5-yard line; Martin averaged 32.0 yards and stayed under in 4 of his last 5 games.
- Wake Forest carries a 91.3 defensive grade and 90.7 coverage grade into this matchup.
- Virginia's last two games produced -0.029 and +0.002 offensive EPA per play with 38.2% and 43.4% pass rates.
- A single explosive catch can beat 38.5; the recent sample is only five games.

Show all 22 picks

Over 49.5 total points
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Season scoring averages are 37.4 for Wake Forest and 28.3 for Virginia, well above the 48.5 sharp anchor in aggregate.
- Wake's offense averages 0.315 EPA/play and 15.9% explosive plays; Virginia's defense allows 0.003 EPA/play.
- The 49.5 rung is liquid, with 12,777 contracts traded and a one-cent quoted gap; the sharp-anchor-only rung remains slightly positive.
- Pinnacle's 48.5 total is shaded toward the under at -117, warning against a pure scoring-average extrapolation.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons wins by over 11.5 points
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Wake owns an +18.0 season scoring margin; Virginia is +8.6, with recent form widening the gap.
- Wake averages 0.315 EPA/play, 51.4% success and a 15.9% explosive-play rate.
- The sharp -12.5 anchor and reweighted 14-point mass make the 11.5 rung marginally positive before matchup adjustment.
- The sharp anchor is only Wake -12.5; the 10-to-14 margin band is a meaningful key-number corridor.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons first-half spread NO 6.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle's full-game Wake Forest -12.5 scales to a +6.25 first-half anchor; the 2026 efficiency blend adjusts the mean to roughly +5.8.
- 3,681 2023, 26 FBS regular-season finals produce SD_full 15.22; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 10.77, not 7.61.
- DERIVED REFERENCE at the exact 6.5 rung: Normal(+5.8, 10.77²) gives about 52.8% NO; a conservative adjustment for the college 7-point mass leaves roughly 52% versus 45¢.
- First-half variance remains wide at 10.77 points, and a Wake explosive play or short field can clear 6.5 immediately.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread −13
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION, eight-game Virginia/seven-game Wake FBS sample; matchup EPA differential favors Wake by 0.1875 per play.
- Wake’s offense averages 0.3152 EPA/play versus Virginia’s 0.0030 defensive EPA allowed; Virginia’s offense averages 0.1371 versus Wake’s 0.0124 allowed.
- Wake leads success rate 0.5137, 0.4795 and explosive rate 0.1588, 0.1054, creating a stronger margin tail.
- Most likely loss: Wake wins by 12 or fewer after Virginia’s efficient offense avoids enough negative plays.
Game 1st-half total over 20.5 pointsFavorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Recent five-game points per drive average 3.42 for Wake Forest and 1.87 for Virginia.
- Average pace is 26.6 seconds/play for Wake Forest and 28.9 for Virginia, supporting roughly five to six drives each before halftime.
- Bottom-up first-half projection is approximately 29 points, about 8.5 above the 20.5 ladder.
- The warehouse supplies full-game efficiency rather than first-half splits; the five-game sample is a script proxy, not a direct opening-half model.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 1st-half winnerFavorite
+39%Won
Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Five-game offense: Wake Forest averaged +0.306 EPA/play and .511 success rate versus Virginia's +0.070 and .453.
- Wake's slower 26.6-second pace still produced efficient scripts; Virginia's 28.9-second pace and recent offensive volatility compress its comeback routes.
- The 76% estimate is built from five full-game samples, not a clean first-half split; the opening-script translation can be wrong.
Game total over 48
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Over 48 is 50.98¢ (-104) while Over 47.5 is 51.92¢ (-108): the whole-number contract has the push option and the better payout.
- Over 48 loses at 47 or fewer total points; exactly 48 is a push, not a win.
Virginia Cavaliers +13 spread
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Virginia +13 pushes if Wake Forest wins by exactly 13; Virginia +13.5 wins that same outcome.
- ProphetX quotes Virginia +13 at -105 (51.22¢) versus +13.5 at -111 (52.61¢).
- At the exact 13-point margin the ticket pushes, not wins; the 51.7% win estimate excludes that push outcome.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread −8.5
+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Wake averages +0.3152 offensive EPA/play and 21.52 seconds/play versus Virginia’s +0.1371 and 29.69.
- 2026 PFF card: Wake defense 91.3 and offense 81.6 versus Virginia defense 84.1 and offense 81.2.
- Pinnacle’s main spread centers Wake Forest -12.5, corroborating the favorite direction; -8.5 buys 4.5 points below that reference.
- Most likely loss: Wake Forest wins by eight or fewer, or Virginia wins outright.
Total Points over 51
+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Scoring-rate inputs favor an over: Virginia offense is +0.137 EPA/play and Wake +0.315; defensive EPA allowed is near neutral at +0.003 and +0.012.
- Current scoring averages combine for 65.68 points; PFF offense grades are 81.2 Virginia and 81.6 Wake, while the sharp reference is only 48.5.
- QB gate cleared: Beau Pribula led Virginia's latest pass-attempt row and is identified as the starting quarterback by current coverage; Gio Lopez led Wake's latest row and is named by Virginia's official preview.
- Most likely loss: Virginia stalls below 20 and Wake fails to finish drives, keeping the total at 51 or lower.
Wake Forest −13
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Wake’s FBS-only offense averages +0.315 EPA/play versus Virginia’s +0.101 through seven games each.
- Wake leads FBS-only success rate .514-.465 and explosive rate .159-.094; its defense allows .012 EPA/play versus Virginia’s .047.
- the captured sportsbook number is Wake -13.5; ProphetX offers the more favorable -13 at even money.
- The sample is seven FBS games per team; no simulation was run, and the season-to-date projection could be miscalibrated.
Beau Pribula under 169.5 passing yards
−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model probability 68%; FanDuel -112 implies 52.8%, a 15.2-point probability gap.
- Pribula stayed below 169.5 in 6 of 8 2026 games: 158, 137, 113, 168, 279, 197, 162, 155 yards.
- Wake Forest ranks 86th of 319 teams in 2026 defensive EPA per play allowed, inside the favorable top-35% matchup tier.
- The exact-line sample is 8 games, not a complete L10; season-form fallback caps conviction at low.
Virginia Cavaliers spread +12.5
−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Wake leads Virginia by 0.178 EPA/play offensively (.315 to .137), but the defensive matchup is nearly even: .012 vs .003 EPA allowed.
- Wake's bye follows its Oct. 17 game; Virginia last played Oct. 23, so the rest edge favors Wake and keeps this to a lean.
- Weather.gov projects partly sunny, 66°F, northeast wind 7, 9 mph, with no rain noted, no meaningful weather penalty.
- Wake averages 37.4 points and owns a .159 explosive-play rate; a few explosive scores can turn +12.5 into a loss.
Game over 23.5 first-half points
−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle 48.5 full-game total scaled against the 65.0-point season PPD baseline gives a 24.3-point first-half baseline.
- 11.23 projected first-half drives: (Virginia 11.75 + Wake Forest 10.71 observed drives/game) ÷ 2; 138.2 combined plays and 28.25-second blended pace support roughly 69 half plays.
- No independent first-half sharp total is posted; the reference depends on scaling Pinnacle's full-game 48.5 and calibrating offense-only PPD.
Total points over 48.5
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- simple matchup projection is 52.4 points versus 48.5.
- Wake averages 37.43 points; Virginia averages 28.25 across eight games.
- Wake allows 19.43 points and Virginia allows 19.63; both offenses remain above the posted total baseline.
- Most likely loss: Virginia's offense stalls, producing a Wake win in a low-pace game.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread −13.5
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- NO REFERENCE, Pinnacle is off-line at -12.5, so no same-line sharp reference is claimed.
- Wake’s last-five scoring margin is +20.4 versus Virginia’s -0.4, a 20.8-point recent-form gap against a 13.5-point spread.
- Wake averages 0.3152 offensive EPA/play, 51.4% success and 37.4 points; Virginia averages 0.1371, 47.9% and 28.3.
- Most likely loss: Wake wins but Virginia stays within 13 points through a late backdoor score.

Win chance, start to finish

50%WAKEUVAKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Virginia vs. Wake Forest?

The Wake Forest won 51–7 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.