Sacred Heart vs. Stony BrookFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalKenneth P. LaValle Stadium
Sacred Heart3–4
32–31Final
Stony Brook5–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SACR | 3 | 10 | 0 | 19 | 32 |
| STON | 0 | 14 | 17 | 0 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSacred Heart Pioneers +11.5 53¢
Why Key Number CFB likes it: Key-number density: 2026 FBS has 24 exact 11-point margins in 1,052 regular-season games (2.3%); the +11.5 rung costs only about 2.0 probability points versus +10.5.
Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-1 on this game · +46% return
- Sacred Heart Pioneers +11.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Key-number density: 2026 FBS has 24 exact 11-point margins in 1,052 regular-season games (2.3%); the +11.5 rung costs only about 2.0 probability points versus +10.5.
- Recent EPA form favors the underdog: Sacred Heart +0.0986 offensive EPA/play and +0.0751 defensive EPA allowed versus Stony Brook +0.0603 and +0.1154.
- PFF overall grades are nearly level: Sacred Heart 80.4, Stony Brook 80.8, a weak foundation for a clean double-digit separation.
- The bet loses on a Stony Brook win by 12 or more; touchdown clustering makes that outcome materially live.
- Sacred Heart Pioneers to win+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- live team EPA favors Sacred Heart: -0.098 versus Stony Brook -0.631, with success rates .448 versus .429.
- Sacred Heart is within one score at 6-0 in Q2; Stony Brook's pregame favorite status is not supported by its early offensive efficiency.
- The edge is a live-performance mismatch: the home favorite is priced as dominant while its current drives have produced negative EPA and no points.
- Most likely loss: Stony Brook's home-field and pregame strength finally produce explosive plays after halftime.
- total points under 53.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- A simple five-game offense/defense blend projects 51.4 total points, 2.1 below the posted number.
- The projection is driven by Stony Brook's 25.8 points allowed and Sacred Heart's 21.4 points scored per game in the latest five-game rows.
- Stony Brook's 56-point outburst is the main inflation risk in the market; the other four latest games averaged 28.5 combined points.
- Recent samples are only five games, and the blend is not opponent-adjusted or a calibrated total distribution.
Win chance, start to finish
50%STONSACRKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Sacred Heart vs. Stony Brook?
The Sacred Heart won 32–31 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.