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Texas State vs. Boise StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAlbertsons Stadium
Texas State4–3
45–46Final
Boise State6–1
Score by period
Team1234T
TXST03222045
BOIS72101846

Top model pick, graded

Won

Boise State Broncos to win −385

Why Brewing CFB Moneylines likes it: FPI rates Boise State 11.396 versus Texas State -0.291; SP+ and SRS also favor Boise State.

Brewing CFB MoneylinesUp 5% return this season · 40 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-14 on this game · −11% return

  1. Boise State Broncos to winFavorite4 models agree
    +26%Won

    Taken at −385 on FanDuel

    4 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, EPA Mismatch +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Brewing CFB Moneylines
    • FPI rates Boise State 11.396 versus Texas State -0.291; SP+ and SRS also favor Boise State.
    • Opponent-adjusted PPA favors Boise State: offense .316 versus .246; defense .019 allowed versus .108.
    • Both quarterbacks are projected, not officially confirmed; Madsen and Brad Jackson are expected starters.
    EPA Mismatch
    • FPI rates Boise State 11.396 points above average versus Texas State at -0.291; SP+ also favors Boise 10.9 to 1.5.
    • Boise leads season points per drive 3.06 to 2.82, with PFF overall grades 91.7 to 89.8 and offense grades 86.5 to 81.6.
    • Texas State's latest 10-game EPA profile is stronger: offense +0.2538 versus Boise +0.1759 and defense allowed +0.0597 versus +0.0937.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Boise State is 6-1 with a +13.9 average margin over its last seven; Texas State is 4-3 at +7.1.
    • Boise leads the PFF team grade 91.7 to 89.8 and offense grade 86.5 to 81.6.
    • The moneyline moved from FanDuel -430 opening to -385 current, contrary movement against Boise State.
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • Boise State's 2026 FPI rating is 11.396 versus Texas State's -0.291.
    • Boise State is 6-1 with a +13.9 average margin; Texas State is 4-3 at +7.1.
    • Texas State has the better 2026 success rate, 52.2% to 49.1%, and higher explosive-play rate, 14.2% to 11.7%.
  2. Texas State Bobcats spread +10.53 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsKey Number CFB, Saturday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • Key rung pair: Texas State +10 is -102 (50.50¢) versus +10.5 at -108; the 1.42-point price step understates exact-10 margin mass, about 4.2% of 11,509 CFB regular/postseason games.
    • PFF's 2026 cards favor Texas State's defense 90.1 to Boise State's 81.6; recent five-game scoring margins are Texas State +21.4 and Boise State +17.2.
    • Most likely loss: Boise State wins by 11 or more; +10.5 has no push protection.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Seven-game FBS sample: Texas State offense +0.242 EPA/play versus Boise State defense allowing +0.1101, a +0.1319 matchup gap; Boise's counter-gap is only slightly larger at +0.1438.
    • Texas State leads current success rate .5224-.4906 and explosive rate .1417-.1173; PFF defense is 90.1 versus Boise State's 81.6.
    • Most likely loss: Boise State's home field and its slightly stronger offensive matchup produce a margin of 11 or more.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only 2026: Texas State success rate is 51.9% versus Boise State’s 47.7%.
    • Boise’s offensive EPA advantage is only 0.0463 per play, while its defensive advantage is only 0.0197 allowed EPA.
    • Boise State owns the stronger offense: 0.2428 EPA/play versus Texas State’s 0.1965.
  3. Texas State Bobcats to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board
      • Most likely loss: Boise State's home advantage and 3.35 current points per drive produce a straightforward Broncos win.
      Long Way Home
      • Texas State averages 37.1 points, 0.242 offensive EPA/play, 52.2% success and 14.2% explosiveness; Boise averages 34.4, 0.246, 49.1% and 11.7%.
      • Recent form favors the underdog's competitiveness: Texas State's last-five scoring margin is +21.4 versus Boise's +17.2.
      • Most likely loss: Boise's stronger defense, allowing 20.6 points per game versus Texas State's 30.0, combines with home field to produce an 11-plus-point win.
    • Under 63.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    • Texas State Bobcats spread +11
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    • Texas State Bobcats +7.5
      +127%Won

      Taken at 44¢ on Novig

      Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle -11 de-vigs Texas State +11 to 51.9%.
      • Moving from +11 to +7.5 crosses the 10-point key; subtracting 3.5% gives 48.4% fair.
      • Both full-game spread quotes are live and the observed ladder is monotonic.
      • Brad Jackson and Maddux Madsen are expected, not officially confirmed; late warmup scratches remain unknown.
    Show all 22 picks
    1. Boise State Broncos first-half spread NO 6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, Pinnacle's full-game Boise -11 scales to a +5.5 first-half mean.
      • 2026 FBS margin SD is 16.24 across 1,123 finals; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 11.48, not 8.12.
      • At the exact 6.5 rung, my mean-plus-SD distribution gives NO 53.5%; raw Kalshi 0.51/0.52 is fraction-priced.
      • The first-half mean is anchored to the sharp full-game spread; seven-game team samples are not a fully independent power model.
    2. Texas State Bobcats @ Boise State Broncos under 65.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

      Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both are one-sided, non-market-maker profiles; the same under position is confirmed by current global holdings.
      • Both core entries are several hours old; the one-cent US lag may already be mostly captured.
    3. Texas State Bobcats +10.5
      +95%Won

      Taken at −105 on FanDuel

      D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Texas State's 2026 per-play success rate is .522 versus Boise State's .491.
      • Texas State's explosive-play rate is .142 versus Boise State's .117, supporting backdoor-cover paths.
      • Market shifted toward Texas State: DraftKings moved from -10.5 flat to -112 on the dog while the spread held.
      • Boise's expected QB Maddux Madsen owns an 87.2 average 2026 adjusted QBR versus Brad Jackson's 77.6.
    4. Game 1st-quarter total over 13.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Texas State’s last five average 79.2 plays at 23.49 seconds per play; Boise averages 71.6 at 28.17.
      • Recent points-per-drive averages are 3.37 for Texas State and 3.25 for Boise State.
      • Fast Texas State tempo plus both offenses’ recent efficiency projects roughly 15.5 first-quarter points.
      • A first quarter is roughly six combined possessions; one punt, turnover, or missed field goal can dominate the result.
    5. Texas State Bobcats +13.5
      +79%Won

      Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

      BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Texas State leads recent 10-game offense EPA/play 0.254 to Boise State's 0.176, success rate 52.2% to 48.8%.
      • Texas State's 2026 PFF defense grade is 90.1 versus Boise State's 81.6, supporting resistance to a double-digit home win.
      • The alternate +13.5 preserves three points versus the sharper full-game area near Boise -10, giving better protection than +10.5.
      • Texas State's recent EPA window includes large wins over weaker opponents and is only seven 2026 games deep.
    6. Boise State −17
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    7. Boise State Broncos −10
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −108 on BetMGM

      CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ESPN pregame model projects Boise State by 15.6 points and an 86.2% home win probability.
      • Boise State FPI rating is 11.396 versus Texas State -0.291; SRS is 11.8 versus 5.7.
      • Boise State leads 2026 points per drive 3.06 to 2.82 and overall PFF grade 91.7 to 89.8.
      • Texas State has the stronger recent success rate (52.2%) and explosive-play rate (14.2%) versus Boise's 49.1% and 11.7%.
    8. under 56 total pointsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • under 56 pushes at exactly 56; under 55.5 loses there.
      • 192 of 11,500 completed CFB games totaled 56: empirical push mass 1.670%.
      • ProphetX quotes under 56 at +196 (33.78c), better than under 55.5 at +194 (34.01c).
      • Only totals below 56 win; exactly 56 refunds, not a win.
    9. Total Points over 63.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season scoring averages combine for 71.6 points; the recent five-game scoring averages combine for 78.6, while both defenses allow positive defensive EPA per play.
      • Both teams are FBS with seven current-season advanced-stat rows; recent form supplies sustained scoring rather than a one-game outlier.
      • Brad Jackson and Maddux Madsen led the latest passing rows with 37 and 23 attempts; current web/X coverage supports the continuing quarterback roles, with no QB listed out.
      • Most likely loss: Boise's stronger home defense controls Texas State below 24 and the Broncos fail to reach 40, leaving the game at 63 or fewer.
    10. Game total under 65.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • seven-game FBS profiles are closely matched offensively: Texas State +0.242 EPA/play, Boise +0.246.
      • Pinnacle's captured main total is 63; context only, while 65.5 supplies meaningful under cushion.
      • Own fair probability: 60%; quarter-Kelly is 1.2% raw, capped at the desk's 0.5% bankroll limit.
      • Both quarterbacks are expected rather than confirmed; no game-specific CFB injury-X signal was posted.
    11. Boise State Broncos first-half spread NO 13.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION with SHARP REFERENCE: Pinnacle's live full-game Boise -14.5 implies a roughly 11.8-point halftime mean after the current 7-0 score.
      • 2026 FBS regular-season margin SD is 16.26 across 1,142 finals; square-root scaling gives 11.50 first-half SD and about 9.1 for the remaining half.
      • At the exact 13.5 rung, the live mean-plus-SD distribution is about 57%; uncertainty-haircut fair probability is 55% versus 52¢.
      • Boise leads 7-0 with 13 first-half plays to Texas State's 5; another explosive drive clears 13.5.
    12. Boise State Broncos −10.0
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −108 on BetMGM

      RnjDown 65% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted FPI ratings are 11.396 versus -0.291; the game-specific venue-inclusive projection is Boise -15.602.
      • Latest three FBS margins are Boise +15.667 versus Texas State +13.333; the recent window still favors Boise by 2.334.
      • Season FBS EPA/drive: Boise offense +0.2428/+3.087 PPD versus Texas State +0.1965/+2.570 PPD; Boise defense is also better on allowed EPA.
      • The latest three also favor Texas State by 5.0 success points and 3.2 explosive points; Boise's recent margin edge is only 2.334.
    13. Game first-half total over 31.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 season pace is 71.86 Boise plays at 25.89 sec/play plus 78.57 Texas State plays at 24.20; 75.2 raw first-half plays, 72.2 after a 4% stoppage haircut.
      • Drive-weighted baseline is 2.93 points/drive; raw full-game output is 71.5 versus the 63.5 Pinnacle full-game total, so calibrated first-half baseline is 30.5.
      • The projection clears 31.5 by only 1.2 points; one empty red-zone trip or long early possession can erase it.
    14. Game total over 65
      +122%Won

      Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels are 3 versus 3, neutral; two of three measures agree and the thin-side quote clears the few-hundred-dollar size rule.
      • Equal 3 book levels do not corroborate; the signal rests on thin quote plus total depth only.
    15. Game total over 63.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 efficiency: Texas State +0.242 EPA/play and Boise State +0.246; both defenses allow positive EPA/play, supporting scoring.
      • Texas State averages 24.20 seconds per play and Boise State 25.89; recent combined scoring/allowance profile centers near the posted 63.5.
      • Pinnacle/DraftKings reference totals of 64/63.5 corroborate the scoring neighborhood; current Brad Jackson and Maddux Madsen identities pass the QB gate.
      • Most likely loss: 63 or fewer points; over 63.5 has no push protection.
    16. Total points under 63.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 ESPN pregame model projects Boise State by 15.6; matchup scoring inputs imply roughly 61 total points.
      • Texas State and Boise State average 37.1 and 34.4 points, but opposing defensive averages pull the matchup estimate to about 61.1.
      • the captured sportsbook board had 63.5 at -110/-105, but this claim relies on the projection rather than a sharp-price gate.
      • Most likely loss: both efficient offenses convert explosive plays and push the game above 63.5.

    Win chance, start to finish

    50%BOISTXSTKickoff
    Oct 31Final

    Questions

    Who won Texas State vs. Boise State?

    The Boise State won 46–45 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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