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Troy vs. James MadisonFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBridgeforth Stadium
Troy3–4
24–21Final
James Madison7–1
Score by period
Team12345T
TROY07140324
JMU14700021

Top model pick, graded

Won

Troy Trojans to win 10¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-10 on this game · +30% return

  1. James Madison Dukes −19.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Week
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only EPA/play gap is +0.130 for JMU: 0.159 offense versus Troy 0.029.
    • JMU's defense allows -0.019 EPA/play versus Troy's +0.062; success rate also favors JMU, 47.1% to 44.4%.
    • College lineups are expected rather than officially confirmed; the warehouse has no game-specific X injury signal row.
    Long Week
    • +0.224 offensive EPA/play for JMU versus +0.046 for Troy; JMU also leads explosive rate .145 to .105.
    • JMU allows -0.016 defensive EPA/play; Troy's offense averages only +0.046 EPA/play and 22.9 points.
    • This is only a lean: the market move toward Troy may reflect information not yet visible in the early-week data.
  2. James Madison Dukes over 35.5 team pointsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +102 on Pinnacle

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA delta +0.1816: JMU offense 0.2238 minus Troy defensive EPA allowed 0.0422.
    • PROE +.072 and pass rate .464 support a higher-possession scoring environment than the split implies.
    • George Pettaway is reported out by current search/X sources; no official designation is on file, so JMU's lead-back workload is uncertain.
  3. Troy Trojans to winLong shot
    +900%Won

    Taken at 10¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  4. James Madison Dukes spread −19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FBS margin profile: JMU averages +14.4 against FBS opponents versus Troy -5.2; home adjustment centers the margin near 20.5.
    • Efficiency gap supports the margin: JMU averages +0.224 offensive EPA/play versus Troy +0.046, with defensive allowance -0.016 versus +0.042.
    • Most likely loss: James Madison wins but by 19 or fewer; the distribution remains wide around the 19.5 rung.
  5. Under 51 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current drives average 12.5 for James Madison and 11.7 for Troy; the possession count supports the Under.
    • Expected depth chart lists Goose Crowder and Camden Coleman; latest pass-attempt leaders align at 14 and 39. Tier 2.
    • Most likely loss: James Madison's explosive offense creates quick scores and pushes the game above 51.
  6. Nick Herman under 38.5 rushing yards
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Herman stayed under 38.5 in 4 of his last 5 games: 8, 12, 21, 46, and 18 yards.
    • His last three rushing workloads fell to 2, 2, and 4 carries; JMU's expected lineup lists George Pettaway at HB, not Herman.
    • Season data show 46 carries in eight games; the 133-yard and 60-yard games create most of his over tail.
    • College lineups are expected, not official; a late injury or rotation change could expand Herman's workload.
Show all 17 picks
  1. James Madison Dukes first-half spread over 7.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 efficiency: JMU +0.224 EPA/play, 0.145 explosive rate, 3.07 points/drive; Troy: +0.046, 0.105, 1.90.
    • Pinnacle full-game JMU -19.5; the scaled baseline plus efficiency adjustment supports JMU control.
    • JMU’s 84-point Wagner game inflates season metrics; its last-five scoring margin was only +16.2.
  2. James Madison Dukes −26.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +210 on FanDuel

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent fair probability 36.0%; fair odds approximately +178.
    • James Madison averages a +23.1 margin versus Troy at −2.0 through the current season.
    • JMU leads in offensive EPA/play 0.224 to 0.046 and defensive EPA allowed −0.016 to 0.042.
    • The bet needs a 27-point win while the main spread is only JMU -19.5.
  3. Troy Trojans over 14.5 team points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Troy averages 22.9 points per game in 2026 (160 points in 7 games).
    • JMU allows 18.3 points per game (146 in 8); Troy cleared 14.5 in 4 of 7, JMU allowed 15+ in 5 of 8.
    • Troy's season offense is +0.0457 EPA/play with a 45.4% success rate; JMU's defense allows -0.0159 EPA/play.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups are the only lineup layer; Sun Belt injury reports are not covered, so a late Troy quarterback change is a major swing.
  4. Troy Trojans spread +20
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Two of three measures agree: Troy is thin at the quote and deeper overall; book levels are tied 3-3, so they do not add support.
    • Book levels tie 3-3, so the signal relies on two measures rather than all three; the depth asymmetry is venue self-reference.
  5. James Madison −20 (pushes if margin is exactly 20; 1.603% historical mass)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CFB history: exact 20-point margin occurred 183 times, 1.603% of completed regular/postseason games.
    • ProphetX JMU -19.5 -102 vs -20 +106: adjacent quotes discount the whole-rung win probability by only 1.96 points.
    • Historical exact-margin rate is all CFB, not matchup-specific; this game may have a different margin distribution.
  6. Troy Trojans spread +19
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 efficiency blend: JMU's +0.224 offensive EPA/play versus Troy's +0.046, but the score-form margin centers near 12.6 before a roughly three-point home adjustment.
    • The resulting estimated margin is about 15.6, below the 19-point rung; +102 implies 49.5% before accounting for my lean.
    • The 19 area is away from canonical 3/7/10 key numbers, so the model does not apply a large key-number tax.
    • JMU's offense averages 41.4 points and its defense allows only 18.3, creating real blowout potential.
  7. James Madison Dukes spread −20
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup gap favors JMU: +0.1816 offensive EPA/play versus Troy's +0.0422 defensive EPA allowed; Troy's reverse gap is only +0.0615 versus JMU's -0.0159 allowed.
    • PFF 2026 grades favor JMU 86.6-74.4 overall, 75.5-66.2 offense, and 85.1-78.3 defense; both teams clear the FBS and three-game gates.
    • Most likely loss: Troy keeps JMU below its explosive-play baseline and the Dukes win by 19 or fewer; exactly 20 is a push.
  8. James Madison −18.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, ESPN's pregame model projects James Madison by 20.519 points, 2.019 above this line.
    • FPI rates James Madison +5.362 versus Troy -11.392; SP+ rates them +10.9 versus -9.9.
    • James Madison's 2026 home profile is .3366 offensive EPA/play and .542 success rate; Troy's road profile is -.1654 and .403.
    • Most likely loss: James Madison wins by 18 or fewer, allowing Troy a late backdoor cover.
  9. Game total under 50.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Troy scored 14 and 6 in its last two games; James Madison’s season defense allows -0.0159 EPA/play.
    • ESPN’s pregame model projects James Madison -20.5, consistent with Troy offensive-stall risk rather than a balanced shootout.
    • Most likely loss: James Madison reaches 40-plus points and Troy contributes enough for 51 or more.
  10. Total Points over 54.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring baseline is 64.2 combined points; PFF offense grades are 75.5 for JMU and 66.2 for Troy.
    • QB gate cleared: Fox lists Camden Coleman and Goose Crowder; latest 2026 pass-attempt leaders match those starters.
    • Most likely loss: JMU's strong defense and Troy's 28.08-second pace strand Troy below 17 points.
  11. Total Points over 55.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 scoring baseline is 64.2 points: James Madison 41.4 and Troy 22.9 per game; the recent window totals 60.9.
    • Recent tempo/rate sample: James Madison 16.4 seconds/play, +9.5% PROE, 14.5% explosive, 48.9% success; Troy 27.7, +4.3%, 9.9%, 46.5%.
    • Troy's recent defense allows +0.1073 EPA/play; JMU's 2026 PFF card grades its offense 75.5 and defense 85.1.
    • Most likely loss: Troy's slow pace and modest success rate collapse drives, while JMU's 85.1 PFF defense holds Troy near 14-17 points.

Questions

Who won Troy vs. James Madison?

The Troy won 24–21 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.

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