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Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAggie Memorial Stadium
Jacksonville State5–2
24–0Final
New Mexico State3–4
Score by period
Team1234T
JXST0710724
NMSU00060

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 50.5 total 50¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Raw Kalshi NO value 0.50; ≤1.00 is fractional, so 50¢, +100 equivalent; status is trading.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-8 on this game · +33% return

  1. Jacksonville State Gamecocks spread −33 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    3 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
    • Jacksonville State’s offensive EPA/play is 0.187 versus New Mexico State’s 0.033.
    • Jacksonville State’s defensive EPA/play allowed is 0.083 versus New Mexico State’s 0.101.
    • College football lineups and depth-chart availability were not served in the preview; late personnel news is unknown.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • through 7 FBS games, Jacksonville State leads New Mexico State by 0.228 EPA/play (0.243 vs 0.015).
    • Success rate is 52.0% vs 43.7%; SHARP REFERENCE: Pinnacle was around Jacksonville State -3 at -109, making ProphetX slightly better.
    • Both quarterbacks are expected rather than officially confirmed: Caden Creel and Adam Damante; the CFB lineup feed is projected.
    Long Way Home
    • 2026 EPA profile: Jacksonville State offense +0.243/play versus New Mexico State +0.015; success rate is 52.0% versus 43.7%.
    • Jacksonville State is 5-2 with a +4.6 recent scoring-margin form mark; New Mexico State is 3-4 with -0.9.
    • The most likely loss is a one-score New Mexico State home win or a Jacksonville State win by exactly three, producing a push rather than a win.
  2. Under 50.5 total2 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Raw Kalshi NO value 0.50; ≤1.00 is fractional, so 50¢, +100 equivalent; status is trading.
    • Jacksonville State averages 0.243 offensive EPA/play and 14.5% explosiveness; its offense can produce 28-plus points.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Load-bearing possession factor: adjusted pace projects roughly 21, 22 combined drives and a 47, 48 point center; current combined efficiency is 4.36 points per drive before matchup adjustment.
    • Seven current-season advanced rows per team, moderate explosive rates (Jacksonville State 14.5%, New Mexico State 13.5%), and the lower-chance distribution converge on the under.
    • Most likely loss: explosive plays or short fields create a 51-plus-point game despite the lower modeled possession center.
  3. Jacksonville State Gamecocks spread −3.52 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsHeater Two-Hour, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Heater Two-Hour
      • Jacksonville State must win by at least four, with New Mexico State’s home field and late-game variance still live.
      Key Number CFB
      • Jacksonville State's 2026 offense averages +0.243 EPA/play versus New Mexico State's +0.015; success rates are .520 versus .437.
      • 2026 PFF pass-block grades favor Jacksonville State 75.9 to 63.1; overall grades are nearly level, making +115 preferable to the short moneyline.
      • Most likely loss: Jacksonville State wins by 1-3 points or New Mexico State wins; exact 3 is the key-number danger.
    • Jacksonville State to win2 models agree
      +67%Won

      Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Quantitative +EV Analyst
      Why 2 models like it
      Saturday Board Pairs
      • Seven-game FBS sample: Jacksonville State offense posts +0.2428 EPA/play versus New Mexico State allowing +0.0787, a +0.1641 matchup gap.
      • QB gate cleared from latest passing boxes and live previews: Caden Creel led Jacksonville State attempts on 10/13; Adam Damante led New Mexico State attempts on 10/21.
      • Most likely loss: New Mexico State's home field and 87.1 PFF defense keep Jacksonville State's offense below its seven-game efficiency level.
      Quantitative +EV Analyst
      • The net efficiency gap is 0.171 EPA/play; Jacksonville State is 5-2 and New Mexico State 3-4.
      • Pinnacle currently deals Jacksonville State -156; the posted spread range and recent move are modest, without excessive steam.
      • The efficiency sample is seven games, not a full 10-game window, and is sensitive to opponent strength.
    • Jacksonville State −3.52 models agree
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Week
      Why 2 models like it
      Saturday Board Pairs
      • Jacksonville State's recent profile is 5-2 with 191 points; New Mexico State is 3-4 with 172 points, while the PFF team-grade card favors Jacksonville State overall 82.7-81.9.
      • The board's +115 at -3.5 is internally attractive against the adjacent Jacksonville State moneyline of -146 and the sharper -3 reference.
      • Most likely loss: New Mexico State's 87.1 PFF defense and 89.7 coverage grade keep Jacksonville State from creating separation at home.
      Long Week
      • Jacksonville State’s season offensive EPA/play is +0.243, versus New Mexico State’s +0.015.
      • Jacksonville State last played Oct. 13; New Mexico State last played Oct. 21, a substantial rest difference.
      • New Mexico State’s defensive EPA allowed is +0.079, a stronger season figure than Jacksonville State’s offense has faced in several games.
    • Jacksonville State Gamecocks −6.5
      +144%Won

      Taken at 41¢ on Novig

      Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle's current +3 -105 / -3 -107 main spread de-vigs to 50.2% for Jacksonville State -3.
      • At -6.5, fair shifts to 44.2% after subtracting the brief's 6% mass at key 3.
      • Both sides are live and the surrounding Novig spread ladder is monotonic.
      • The 6-point key-number adjustment is an approximate structural shift, not a full margin model.
    Show all 19 picks
    1. Deondre Johnson over 3.5 receptions
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −118 on FanDuel

      Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Latest share more than doubled while yards per target fell from 28.0 to 23.25: opportunity rose as recent efficiency cooled.
      • Johnson is the expected Jacksonville State RWR with 181 snaps across the last three games; season PFF route rate is 90.1%.
      • Most likely loss: Jacksonville State reverts toward 22, 27 pass attempts, redistributes targets, and Johnson finishes with three receptions.
    2. Jacksonville State Gamecocks first-half winnerFavorite
      +30%Won

      Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi

      Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 7-0 Jacksonville State lead with 12:33 left in Q2; live PBP shows an 80-yard touchdown drive.
      • Season-to-date JSU: +0.227 offensive EPA/play, 51.4% success, 2.64 points/drive; NMSU: +0.009, 44.5%, 1.61.
      • PROJECTION with DERIVED REFERENCE: live Pinnacle full-game prices scaled to first-half state; raised 6-point bar cleared.
      • NMSU needs one touchdown to erase the lead; 12:33 leaves multiple possessions and tie risk.
    3. Jacksonville State Gamecocks over 4.5 first-half margin
      +156%Won

      Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Own 2024-26 histogram: margins 3 (262/2804), 7 (210), 10 (121); 4.5 is not an imported NFL key number.
      • Only 97.30 contracts traded; this rung is thin relative to the heavier lower rungs despite a 1¢ spread.
    4. AJ Williams III anytime touchdownLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +265 on DraftKings

      CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Expected starting New Mexico State WR (104 recent snaps); sportsbook lists the exact player for this game.
      • Three receiving TDs in six games; he caught two TDs in his latest game.
      • The two-TD latest game can inflate the estimate; three touchdowns in six appearances is a small sample.
    5. Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win
      +69%Won

      Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 seven-game form: Jacksonville State +0.243 offensive EPA/play and .520 success rate versus New Mexico State +0.015 and .437.
      • Jacksonville State leads the PFF 2026 pass-block grade 75.9 to 63.1; the sharper market also makes Jacksonville State a road favorite.
      • Current box data and an Oct. 28 personnel check identify Caden Creel and Adam Damante as the active quarterback leaders.
      • Most likely loss: New Mexico State's home field and stronger 0.0787 defensive EPA allowed offset Jacksonville State's offensive edge.
    6. Jacksonville State Gamecocks–New Mexico State Aggies game total over 50.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 seven-game sample: Jacksonville State averages 15.48 seconds per play, +9.4% PROE, 14.5% explosive rate and 52.0% success.
      • New Mexico State adds +11.7% PROE and 13.5% explosiveness; Jacksonville State allows +0.1361 defensive EPA per play.
      • Season scoring averages sum to 51.9 points; Pinnacle also posts 50.5, making the projection edge modest rather than market-independent.
      • Most likely loss: New Mexico State's 23.28-second pace and 43.7% success rate suppress possessions.
    7. Jacksonville State Gamecocks over 7.5 first-half margin
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2024, 26 signed FBS margin SD is 23.29; sqrt-half scaling gives 16.47, not 11.65.
      • Live at 12:33 Q2, Jacksonville leads 7, 0; season PPD and live pace imply roughly +1.25 remaining margin.
      • One remaining scoring drive can decide the 7.5 rung; New Mexico State scoring or Jacksonville stalling defeats the position.
    8. James Jones over 96.5 rushing yards
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model probability 61% vs FanDuel -112 implied 52.8%: +8.2 percentage points.
      • James Jones averages 111.0 rushing yards across seven 2026 games: 14.5 yards above the line, or 15.0%.
      • He is 5-2 over 96.5 with zero pushes; the official NM State preview cited 178 yards on 27 carries last week and 111.0 per game.
      • The current-season sample is seven games, not a full L10; the 2025 record has only one role-incomparable game, so conviction is capped low.
    9. New Mexico State Aggies +2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Tailgate

      Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ESPN FPI projects Jacksonville State -2.236; the +2.5 spread adds 0.264 points of cushion.
      • Pooled last-10 margin standard deviation is 19.22; a normal approximation gives 50.5% cover probability.
      • New Mexico State covered +2.5 in only 4 of its last 10; Jacksonville State covered -2.5 in 6 of 10.
    10. First-half total over 24.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; DERIVED REFERENCE, because no independent sharp 1H total was posted.
      • Both QBs are only marked expected in the lineup feed; recent attempt history and a current preview identify Caden Creel and Adam Damante, but official confirmation is absent.
    11. Jacksonville State Gamecocks under 50.5 total points
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, the latest five-game totals average 48.8 points: Jacksonville State 50.8 and New Mexico State 46.8, 1.7 below 50.5.
      • New Mexico State averaged 20.8 points with -0.056 EPA/play across its latest five; its offense supplies the clearest under pathway.
      • Sharp reference: Pinnacle has the same Under 50.5 at -111, backing the direction while ProphetX is less expensive.
      • Most likely loss: Jacksonville State's 27.0-point recent scoring average and +0.2162 offensive EPA/play produce a shootout.
    12. Game total over 50.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 4 of Jacksonville State's 6 completed 2026 games and 4 of New Mexico State's 7 cleared 50.5 points.
      • Jacksonville State posts +0.243 offensive EPA/play and a 14.5% explosive-play rate, supplying the primary scoring engine.
      • Jacksonville State's defense allows +0.136 EPA/play, creating a path for New Mexico State to contribute enough points despite its weaker offense.
      • The season-total samples are small and the combined historical average is only about 49.5 points.
    13. New Mexico State Aggies to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • After Q1, New Mexico State leads live success rate 52.9% to 46.2% and has -0.030 EPA/play versus Jacksonville State's -0.368.
      • The score is 0-0 despite Jacksonville State's interception at the NMSU 10, so the home underdog has no scoreboard deficit to overcome.
      • Public reference prices are shorter on NMSU (+128 DraftKings, +126 FanDuel, +140 BetOnline); the venue offers the longer payout.
      • Most likely loss: Jacksonville State's 23.1% explosive-play rate produces a field-flipping score and its pregame edge reasserts.

    Questions

    Who won Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State?

    The Jacksonville State won 24–0 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

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