Duquesne vs. New HavenFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalRalph F. DellaCamera Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUQU | 14 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 41 |
| NEW | 6 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 14 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDuquesne Dukes to win −210
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: 74% published independent AI win estimate versus 67.7% BetMGM break-even: +6.3 points.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −43% return
- New Haven Chargers spread +5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Drift- Exact-rung reference: DraftKings -111, FanDuel -110 and Caesars -112; multiplicative devig is 50.0% for New Haven +5.5.
- Power rating gives New Haven +5.5 a 52.5% cover chance: current SRS is nearly even (-45.3 New Haven versus -44.1 Duquesne), with home field narrowing the gap.
- Both expected quarterbacks, Carson Camp and Niko Boyce, are not officially confirmed; lineup observations are null and FCS has no official injury feed here.
Key Number CFB- PFF still favors Duquesne 77.6, 68.8, but the close-game projection supports taking the home underdog's six-point cushion rather than fading the favorite outright.
- QB gate: Carson Camp led Duquesne's latest passing row and is featured in the official preview; Jake Tripptree led New Haven's latest row and is identified as QB in the official recap.
- Most likely loss: Duquesne wins by six or more; its PFF defense grade is 90.1 versus New Haven's 83.1.
- Duquesne Dukes to win+48%Won
Taken at −210 on BetMGM
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 74% published independent AI win estimate versus 67.7% BetMGM break-even: +6.3 points.
- Duquesne PFF overall grade 77.6 versus New Haven 68.8; defense gap is 90.1 versus 83.1.
- SRS rates Duquesne -44.1 and New Haven -45.3; recent L5 margins are +9.4 versus -10.0.
- The AI page gives no matchup-specific publication timestamp or transparent methodology; its estimate is not calibrated here.
- Game under 49.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season offense/defense scoring blend projects 47.1 total points.
- Last-five game totals average 46.6 for Duquesne and 43.2 for New Haven; both recent offenses are below-average by EPA/play.
- Research quality 64/100: recent scoring, EPA, PFF grades, market ladder, and movement were checked.
- Duquesne's 52-21 win last week creates blowout and garbage-time over risk.
- total points under 49.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Duquesne and New Haven average 21.9 and 15.3 points, a 37.1-point combined scoring baseline.
- Both offenses are negative EPA/play (-0.043 and -0.098) with success rates near 40%.
- Pinnacle had no line; the -110/-111 sportsbook prices confirm the number, not the edge.
- Most likely loss: an early explosive play or defensive/special-teams touchdown creates a shootout.
- Duquesne Dukes spread −5.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Duquesne's 2026 offense averages 21.9 points versus New Haven's 15.3, a 6.6-point scoring gap.
- Duquesne's season offensive EPA/play is -0.043 versus New Haven's -0.098, while Duquesne's success rate is 39.8% versus 40.1%.
- Recent form favors Duquesne: +9.4 average margin over its last five versus New Haven's -10.0.
- Most likely loss: New Haven's home field and better defensive EPA profile keep this within one score.
Win chance, start to finish
50%NEWDUQUKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Duquesne vs. New Haven?
The Duquesne won 41–14 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.