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Kansas vs. TCUFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAmon G. Carter Stadium
Kansas3–4
16–22Final
TCU3–4
Score by period
Team1234T
KU3100316
TCU0014822

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 45.5 total 50¢

Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: 23.5 opponent-adjusted combined possessions and discounted points-per-drive produce a model mean near 43.8; Under 45.5 fair probability is 54.0%.

ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-5 on this game · −1% return

  1. Game over 43.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  2. Under 45.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 23.5 opponent-adjusted combined possessions and discounted points-per-drive produce a model mean near 43.8; Under 45.5 fair probability is 54.0%.
    • Same-day Fox Sports lists Isaiah Marshall and Jaden Craig as the starting quarterbacks, cross-checked against each team's latest pass-attempt leader.
    • Tier 2 full coverage: both Big 12 teams have seven current advanced rows; load-bearing factor is the reduced possession count and below-market adjusted scoring rate.
    • Most likely loss: both teams reach 25-plus combined possessions and normal red-zone conversion pushes the game to 46 or more.
  3. Game total over 46
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over has 3 book levels versus under 2, corroborating the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it read.
    • Venue self-reference can reflect stale, correlated, or strategic orders rather than informed demand.
  4. Game over 51.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 334 of 10,371 CFB games landed exactly 51 points: 3.221% empirical key-number mass.
    • Over 51 pushes at 51; over 51.5 loses at 51; both win on 52+.
    • The whole rung at +152 implies a self-anchored half-line fair price near +160; +170 is roughly 10 American points better.
    • ProphetX's whole-rung quote is not independent sharp validation; if +152 is wrong, the inferred +160 anchor is wrong.
  5. TCU Horned Frogs spread −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • TCU's defense allows -0.0802 EPA/play and its PFF pass grade is 81.4, supporting the home favorite against Kansas's 66.8 PFF pass grade.
    • QB gate checked: TCU's official preview names Jaden Craig; the live Fox pregame page lists Isaiah Marshall for Kansas, with the current game-time-decision risk noted below.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas wins outright or TCU wins by six or fewer; -6.5 has no push protection.
  6. Jon Denman under 57.5 rushing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Workload-adjusted empirical distribution makes the under 69%; FanDuel -112 implies 52.8%, a 16.2-point gap and positive net value.
    • Denman is under 57.5 in 5 of 6 2026 games, with 148 yards on 44 carries; exact sample is six, not a full L10.
    • Kansas ranks 42nd of 319 teams in 2026 defensive EPA allowed, a top-13.2% run-defense proxy favorable to the under.
    • The six-game sample is incomplete for the L10 requirement, so conviction is capped low and role-adjustment uncertainty is material.
Show all 11 picks
  1. TCU Horned Frogs −6
    0%Push

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  2. TCU Horned Frogs −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
  3. Game under 45 total points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • TCU and Kansas allow negative EPA/play: -0.080 and -0.043, respectively, through seven 2026 games.
    • TCU averages 29.5 seconds per play, 3.1 seconds slower than Kansas, supporting fewer possessions.
    • Kansas averages a 17.4% explosive-play rate and both teams combine for 54.4 points per game, which supports the over.
  4. Total points under 45.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • my blended projection is 43.5 points; Pinnacle also shows under 46 at -109.
    • TCU scored only 81 points across its last four games, averaging 20.3 per game.
    • TCU's last four opponents averaged 17.0 points against it; Kansas' recent offense has been uneven.
    • Kansas QB Isaiah Marshall is a game-time decision; his status could materially change the offensive projection.
  5. Kansas Jayhawks spread +6.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION edge; REFERENCE: SHARP REFERENCE, Pinnacle also had Kansas +6.5 at -111.
    • Kansas averaged 0.104 offensive EPA/play versus TCU's 0.041 through seven games.
    • Kansas led TCU in explosive-play rate, 17.4% to 11.9%, supporting competitiveness at the full-game number.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas quarterback Isaiah Marshall is only expected and was questionable in the latest lineup report; an absence or limitation could create a TCU margin.

Win chance, start to finish

50%TCUKUKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Kansas vs. TCU?

The TCU won 22–16 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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