Washington State vs. San Diego StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSnapdragon Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
| SDSU | 7 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 47.5 total 49¢
Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 10-7 on this game · +10% return
- Washington State Cougars to win−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCFB Heater, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Washington State is 1-7 with an 0-5 recent run; its last-10 offensive EPA/play is -0.07 versus SDSU's +0.01.
Long Way Home- Washington State’s five-game defensive EPA allowed average was +0.17, better than San Diego State’s +0.24.
- Washington State’s recent scoring margin (-14.0) is less negative than San Diego State’s (-15.8), despite both teams’ poor form.
- Most likely loss: San Diego State’s volatile offense repeats its recent explosive production and turns the 7-7 first quarter into separation.
- Under 47.5 total+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days - Over total 48−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- CFB efficiency blend makes Over 48 a 53.2% play; scoring/allowed blend projects 54.6 total points.
- Current reporting resolves the QB gate: Stone Saunders is slated for his second straight SDSU start, while WSU coverage frames Owen Eshelman in his second start; lineup feed remains expected.
- Eight-game samples are volatile: SDSU allows 0.17 EPA/play and WSU produces -0.10 EPA/play offensively.
- Washington State Cougars under 23.5 team points+85%Won
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Adjusted EPA delta is -0.27/play: WSU offense -0.10 minus SDSU defensive allowance +0.17.
- WSU converted 5 of 12 recent red-zone trips to touchdowns (41.7%), below the under trigger.
- SDSU allowed touchdowns on 16 of 24 recent red-zone trips (66.7%), directly opposing the under.
- Washington State Cougars under 48.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages combine for 45.4 points: SDSU 26.5, Washington State 18.9.
- Season offensive EPA is modest: SDSU +0.01/play, Washington State -0.10/play; both success rates are below 45%.
- Last-five scoring averages combine for 44.4 points, 4.1 below FanDuel’s 48.5.
- SDSU scored 49 last week and Washington State allowed 31; defensive volatility can create a shootout.
- Washington State Cougars 1st-half winner+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Last 3 games: San Diego State averaged +0.07 offensive EPA/play versus Washington State at -0.01.
- Last 3 games: SDSU posted 47.5% offensive success and 2.39 points/drive; WSU posted 43.0% and 1.55.
- SDSU's recent 24.1-second pace supports more opening-half possessions than WSU's 26.7-second pace.
- Washington State's recent +19.9% PROE and 78.7 plays per game indicate an aggressive opening script that could produce an early lead.
Show all 16 picks
- Game under 49.5 total points+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages combine for 45.4 points; each team's recent-five scoring averages combine for 44.4.
- Recent EPA profile is weak-to-mixed offensively: WSU offense -0.07 EPA/play, SDSU offense +0.01; quality score 78/100, grade A.
- SDSU's defense allowed +0.15 EPA/play over its recent-10 window, creating a path to a WSU scoring rebound.
- Game first-half total over 23.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game total is 48; season drives imply 12.31 first-half drives out of 24.63.
- Pace: WSU 69.4 plays and SDSU 65.8; blended 25.37 seconds/play supports 67.6 first-half plays.
- Season points/drive baselines are uneven: WSU 1.32 versus SDSU 2.02, so the market-calibrated 48 is load-bearing.
- Washington State +3.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- +3.5 wins when Washington State loses by exactly 3; the adjacent +3 contract pushes instead.
- The ProphetX offer can move before filing or be consumed; the quoted size is modest relative to the game's uncertainty.
- Washington State Cougars −4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are Washington State 3 versus San Diego State 3; two of three measures qualify, while level count is neutral.
- ProphetX self-reference only; no independent ticket or handle data confirms informed demand.
- San Diego State Aztecs spread −3+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SDSU has the stronger 2026 PFF card: 77.0 overall and 65.9 offense versus Washington State's 69.0 and 59.4.
- Efficiency and scoring support the home favorite: SDSU +0.01 EPA/play and 26.5 points per game versus WSU -0.10 and 18.9; Pinnacle's -2.5 reference corroborates the direction.
- QB gate cleared: Stone Saunders was announced for his second straight start, while Owen Eshelman is reported for his third straight start.
- Most likely loss: Washington State wins or SDSU wins by 1-2; exactly 3 is a push, not a win.
- Game total under 48.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Washington State averages -0.10 EPA/play and 18.9 points; both expected quarterbacks were checked against box, depth-chart, and current web data.
- Most likely loss: 49 or more points; San Diego State's defense allows 36.1 points per game.
- San Diego State Aztecs to win+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Across seven FBS games, SDSU owns a +0.13 offensive EPA/play gap over WSU (-0.04 vs -0.17).
- SDSU also leads success rate .436-.399 and explosive rate .098-.062; home field supports the favorite.
- Stone Saunders was reported as SDSU's scheduled starter on October 30; Denegal remains questionable with an ankle injury.
- WSU's defense has the better FBS EPA-allowed average (.160 vs SDSU's .191), creating a real upset path.
- San Diego State Aztecs first-half spread over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- the 8-game scoring blend plus 2026 conference home margin projects a full-game SDSU margin near +2.3; half-game mean is approximately +1.2, consistent with Pinnacle's -2.5 full-game spread.
- The 1,106-game 2026 regular-season winner-margin sample has SD_full 16.27; square-root scaling gives SD_1H 11.51, not 8.14.
- College key-number mass is computed, not imported: exact full-game margins 3, 7, 4, 10, and 14 were the leading clusters; 3.5 sits adjacent to the largest 3-point mass.
- This is roughly a one-point probability edge; first-half variance dominates, so it is a LEAN, not a RECOMMENDED position.
- San Diego State Aztecs spread −2.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Personnel, coach Sean Lewis confirmed Stone Saunders to start; WSU's live lineup projects Owen Eshelman for his third straight start.
- Pinnacle was SDSU -2.5 at -117; reference only, while the projection supplies the direction.
- WSU's FBS defensive EPA allowed is better: 0.16 versus SDSU's 0.19, creating a close-game path.
- Washington State Cougars spread +2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle also makes Washington State +2.5 near-even at -103; ProphetX improves that price to +106 (48.54¢).
- My cover estimate is 52.0%, above ProphetX's 48.54¢ contract price.
- Washington State's 2026 scoring margin is -8.75 per game versus San Diego State's -9.63.
- Most likely loss: Washington State's offense stalls; its -0.10 offensive EPA/play trails San Diego State's +0.01.
Win chance, start to finish
50%SDSUWSUKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Washington State vs. San Diego State?
San Diego State won 26-20 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.