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Army vs. MemphisFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Army5–2
22–49Final
Memphis6–2
Score by period
Team1234T
ARMY778022
MEM141471449

Top model pick, graded

Won

Memphis Tigers −5.5 53¢

Why CFB Heater likes it: Both positions are current, same-side, and aligned with the broader Memphis -6 sportsbook market.

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-11 on this game · −8% return

  1. Army Black Knights spread +63 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Army's 2026 offense is +0.324 EPA/play versus Memphis +0.276, a +0.048 efficiency gap; +6 protects the key-six margin.
    • Convergence: Army's six 2026 FBS margins were -4, +4, -2, +3, +32, +3, with no loss by more than six.
    • Most likely loss: Memphis' stronger defense, +0.038 EPA allowed versus Army's +0.125, creates a home win by seven or more.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • seven-game Army FBS sample: +0.324 EPA/play, .563 success, and .123 explosive rate; Memphis allows +0.038 EPA/play.
    • Memphis offense averages +0.276 EPA/play and .519 success against Army’s +0.125 defensive EPA allowed; the counter-gap is smaller at +0.151.
    • Most likely loss: Memphis’ 81.9 PFF defense and home field suppress Army into field goals, producing a Memphis win by seven or more.
    Long Way Home
    • Army averages +13.1 points per game in margin across seven 2026 games; Memphis averages +12.4 across eight, not a profile supporting a routine six-point gap.
    • Army owns the stronger offensive efficiency sample: 0.324 EPA/play and 56.3% success versus Memphis at 0.276 and 51.9%.
    • Most likely loss: Memphis' 0.168 explosive-play rate overwhelms Army's defense, which has allowed 0.125 EPA/play, producing a multi-score home win.
  2. Memphis Tigers to winFavorite2 models agree
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsHeater Two-Hour, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Heater Two-Hour
    • Both moneyline sides are quoted with a roughly half-cent spread; the contract is open and tradable.
    • Army's season offense averages 0.324 EPA/play versus Memphis at 0.276, so the matchup can invalidate the momentum read.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only 2026 averages show Memphis allowing +0.026 EPA/play versus Army allowing +0.204, while Memphis owns the higher explosive-play rate: 16.7% to 10.0%.
    • My projection is 69% for Memphis; the sharp reference is 66.3% fair probability, so this is a small projection edge rather than a payout argument.
    • Army's FBS-only offense has the better success rate, 54.9% to Memphis's 51.0%, and slightly higher offensive EPA: 0.282 to 0.255.
  3. Memphis Tigers −5.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both positions are current, same-side, and aligned with the broader Memphis -6 sportsbook market.
    • A 53¢ entry leaves a modest margin; a one-score game can turn on late variance.
  4. Under 59.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
  5. Memphis Tigers spread −6
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 53.0%: Memphis home off EPA/play 0.318, defensive EPA allowed 0.065, success 54.7%, explosive rate 16.7%; Army away figures are 0.251, 0.243, 52.5%, 11.2%.
    • Live personnel check lists Cale Hellums and Marcus Stokes as the Army and Memphis starting quarterbacks; Memphis also owns a +18.5 home scoring margin versus Army's +1.7 away margin.
    • Most likely loss: Army's option sustains long drives and keeps Memphis from separating past six.
  6. Army Black Knights under 59.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Army averages 67.6 plays and a 16.6% pass rate; the run-heavy profile projects fewer combined possessions against Memphis.
    • Opponent-adjusted projection is approximately 2.65 Army points per drive plus 2.55 Memphis points per drive, or 55.8 total points.
    • Current-season efficiency is strong but less explosive for Army: 3.47 points per drive and 12.3% explosive rate versus Memphis at 3.02 and 16.8%.
    • Memphis averages 73.6 plays and owns the higher explosive rate; a fast start could create 11-plus possessions and clear the number.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Over 59.5 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Load-bearing possession factor: Army and Memphis average 67.6 and 73.6 plays at 23.5 and 24.6 seconds per play; explosive rates are 12.3% and 16.8%.
    • Most likely loss: one or both offenses stall in the red zone, leaving 59 or fewer points despite the high-play baseline.
  2. Army Black Knights over 24.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on BetOnline

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Adjusted EPA delta +0.2859/play: Army offense +0.3238 minus Memphis defensive allowance +0.0379 across 7 and 8 current-season games.
    • Army scored touchdowns on 12 of 16 last-five red-zone trips (.750); Memphis allowed 7 of 14 (.500), and the offense-side over trigger clears .62.
    • Army is extremely run-heavy: -0.197 PROE and a 16.6% pass rate can shorten possessions despite the fast play clocks.
  3. Game total under 63
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Army's seven-game pace averages about 31.0 seconds per play after excluding two malformed sub-15-second rows; Memphis averages 24.8.
    • Army's run-heavy PROE is -19.7% with a 12.3% explosive rate; the possession-suppressing style makes the 63-point cushion valuable.
    • Seven/eight-game FBS samples show strong offenses, but the projection expects pace and Army's lower explosiveness to restrain total possessions.
    • Most likely loss: both positive EPA matchups become efficient touchdowns, with Memphis' 15.5% explosive rate and Army's weak defense driving 64 or more.
  4. Army Black Knights +6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 56% BETALAB estimate versus roughly 49, 51% market baseline at the +6 to +6.5 range; fair value is 56c before fees.
    • Army's 93.6 PFF offense grade materially exceeds Memphis's 79.1; Army's recent 5, 2 form supports a close game.
    • Grade B; research quality 76/100. +6.5 is better protected than +5.5 at 49.5c, while +7.5 costs 57.5c.
    • Memphis owns the better FPI rating (2.082 versus -0.312), SP+ rating (7.0 versus 1.0), and PFF defense grade (81.9 versus 59.1).
  5. Total Points over 60
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five usable Army pace rows average 32.1 seconds/play after two obvious feed anomalies; Memphis averages 25.8 across eight rows, supporting roughly 65-70 combined possessions.
    • Army's 2026 offense averages 56.3% success and 12.3% explosiveness; Memphis averages 52.3% and 15.8%, with Army allowing +0.148 defensive EPA/play across seven games.
    • Season scoring averages are Army 35.3 and Memphis 36.1; the 60-point rung remains below their 71.4 combined baseline, while team-total anchors 33.5 and 27.5 sum to 61.
    • Most likely loss: Memphis' stronger 2026 defense suppresses Army below 24 and the Tigers fail to reach 37, leaving the game at 60 or fewer.
  6. Total Points over 59.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seven- and eight-game 2026 samples show 23.53 Army and 24.52 Memphis seconds per play in the recent preview, with 66.7 and 71.4 offensive plays per game.
    • The scoring-rate projection is approximately 64-66 points: Army averages 35.3 and Memphis 36.1, and both offenses have positive recent EPA against defenses that are not suppressing scoring.
    • REFERENCE is directionally supportive but not the edge: Memphis 33.5 plus Army 27.5 team-total anchors sum to 61; those offers are thin, so this is projection-led.
    • Most likely loss: Memphis' stronger 81.9 PFF defense and +0.0315 defensive EPA allowed hold Army below 24 while Memphis fails to reach 36.
  7. Memphis Tigers −7.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The rung is 1.5 points from the -6 Pinnacle anchor and both sides show live quotes.
    • The 3.52-point gap barely clears the 3.5-point threshold; the key-mass estimate drives the edge.
  8. Memphis Tigers first-half spread NO 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 CFB: 1,126 regular-season finals show SD_full 16.27; square-root half scaling gives SD_1H 11.50, not 8.14.
    • Pinnacle’s Memphis -6 full-game spread scales to a +3 first-half mean; exact-rung NO is 61.9%.
    • 2026 pace, points-per-drive, EPA, and explosive-rate data pull the blended first-half mean toward +1.5 Memphis; exact-rung NO is about 66%.
    • The 7-point mass sits inside Memphis-over-6.5, making this rung less favorable than a smooth normal suggests.
  9. Game first-half total under 30.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10.86 projected first-half drives: Army 4.86 plus Memphis 6.00 from 2026 drive logs; 66.5 combined first-half plays.
    • Army 3.474 and Memphis 3.017 points per drive produce 34.98 raw first-half points; calibrating to Pinnacle's 59.5 full-game total versus 72.1 raw full-game points gives 28.9.
    • Both lineups are expected rather than official; Cale Hellums and Marcus Stokes pass the plurality-starts and live-report gate, but a late scratch is possible.
  10. Game total over 59.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • season scoring/allowance blends center near 59.6 points; Army and Memphis combine strong recent offensive EPA with weak defensive EPA allowed.
    • Personnel gate checked: Cale Hellums and Marcus Stokes led their teams' latest passing boxes, and both official game centers were checked live for current team-leader information.
    • Most likely loss: 59 or fewer total points; over 59.5 has no push protection.
  11. Army Black Knights to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Army leads 2026 offense in EPA/play, 0.324 to Memphis's 0.276, and success rate, 56.3% to 51.9%.
    • Army has averaged 35.3 points across seven games, creating a credible outright-upset path rather than a payout-only longshot case.
    • Most likely loss: Memphis's stronger defense forces Army off schedule while the home offense wins by one score.
  12. Memphis Tigers spread −5.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • sportsbooks center the main number at Memphis -5.5/-6; ProphetX keeps -5.5 at -108.
    • Army's offense leads this sample in EPA/play and success rate, while its option can control possessions.

Win chance, start to finish

50%MEMARMYKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Army vs. Memphis?

The Memphis won 49–22 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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