Elon vs. North Carolina A&TFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalTruist Stadium
Elon4–4
10–13Final
North Carolina A&T3–5
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELON | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| UNC | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
Top model pick, graded
WonElon Phoenix under 45.5 total −113
Why Tempo Gap likes it: Model projects 10.3 Elon and 10.0 N.C. A&T possessions; fair total 42.0 versus 45.5.
Tempo GapUp 5% return this season · 85 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-2 on this game · +99% return
- North Carolina A&T Aggies to win+300%Won
Taken at 25¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Resting MoneyWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- North Carolina A&T is 3-5 with a -9.2 average margin over its last eight, and the lineup is only expected.
Resting Money- Book levels are tied 3-3; two of three measures agree. Directional check: backing North Carolina A&T, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate the depth asymmetry: 3 levels each, so the read is incomplete rather than fully aligned.
- Elon Phoenix under 45.5 total+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 10.3 Elon and 10.0 N.C. A&T possessions; fair total 42.0 versus 45.5.
- Elon and N.C. A&T offenses both post negative EPA/play (-0.079, -0.093) and 41.8% success rates.
- Explosive-play rates are modest at 12.8% for Elon and 12.1% for N.C. A&T, limiting the upper-tail case.
- N.C. A&T allows 29.5 points per game, creating a path for Elon to score efficiently on roughly 10 drives.
- North Carolina A&T Aggies +7.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SRS rates Elon -33.7 and A&T -43.1; adding a 3.5-point home adjustment gives a 5.9-point Elon baseline.
- A 50/50 blend with recent scoring-margin matchup (-2.8 Elon) yields a 1.6-point Elon projection, below the 7.5-point spread.
- A&T is 3-2 over its last five and has won three of its last four; Elon is 2-3 and enters after three straight losses.
- Expected, not confirmed, quarterbacks: Elijah Guttman has only 2 recent games and Elon's official preview names no starter.
- Elon Phoenix −8.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Elon’s 2026 net margin is +3.9 points/game versus North Carolina A&T’s -9.2; recent defense EPA is -0.0934 versus +0.1271.
- PFF team grade favors Elon 81.9 to 74.3; spread offers better price protection than the 75.5c Elon moneyline.
- Expected lineups are not confirmed; warehouse projects Elon QB Elijah Guttman, while a fresh search result reports TJ Crews IV, creating a load-bearing quarterback conflict.
- North Carolina A&T Aggies +10.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- A&T +10.5 wins on a 10-point loss; the half-point contract cannot push.
- ProphetX priced +10.5 at 53.27c (-114) versus +10 at 53.70c (-116): the better rung is 0.43c cheaper.
- Only an exact 10-point margin separates the two rungs; margins below 10 make both win and margins above 10.5 make both lose.
- Elon Phoenix spread −10.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Elon’s net 2026 EPA edge is 0.247 per play; PFF overall grades favor Elon 81.9 to 74.3 and defense 90.2 to 88.8.
- Latest box leaders are TJ Crews IV and Kevin White; a fresh seven-hour game listing names both as starting quarterbacks.
- Most likely loss: Elon wins by 0-10, or North Carolina A&T wins outright; this remains a near-coin-flip spread.
Show all 8 picks
- North Carolina A&T Aggies spread +10.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At 9:34am, the captured board had Elon -7.5 at DraftKings, -8.5 at FanDuel, and -9.5 at Pinnacle; +10.5 supplies 1, 3 extra points.
- Market history shows BetOnline moving the home number from +10.5 to +7.5 and DraftKings from +9.5 to +7.5, while ProphetX retained +10.5.
- Most likely loss: Elon wins by 11 or more; the broader market move may reflect information ProphetX has not absorbed.
- Total points under 44.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- the eight-game scoring blend is 43.6 combined points, below the 44.5 line.
- Elon averages -0.079 offensive EPA/play and North Carolina A&T -0.093; neither offense has a strong efficiency base for a shootout.
- Elon allows 19.5 points per game; its -0.150 defensive EPA allowed rate is the matchup's strongest unit signal.
- Most likely loss: North Carolina A&T's defense fails to slow Elon and the Aggies add enough points to reach 45.
Win chance, start to finish
50%UNCELONKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Elon vs. North Carolina A&T?
The North Carolina A&T won 13–10 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.