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Notre Dame vs. NavyFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalGillette Stadium
Notre Dame6–1
35–13Final
Navy2–5
Score by period
Team1234T
ND7714735
NAVY3100013

Top model pick, graded

Won

Navy Midshipmen spread +30.5 50¢

Why Drift likes it: Model fair spread is Notre Dame -28.5; Navy covers +30.5 at 53.9% versus 49.1% Pinnacle devigged reference.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-14 on this game · −52% return

  1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread −30.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, BETALAB 6.0 +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • seven-game sample: Notre Dame offense +0.347 EPA/play versus Navy defense +0.169 allowed; +0.178 gap.
    • Notre Dame success rate is .556 versus Navy .507; points per drive are 3.55 versus 2.80.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame wins by 1-30 after Navy's option pace and late backdoor score preserve the margin.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Recent 10-game EPA: Notre Dame offense +0.4004/play and defense -0.0108 allowed versus Navy +0.1516 and +0.1058.
    • PFF team grades favor Notre Dame 95.4, 77.1 overall and 93.2, 71.2 on defense.
    • Navy's option pace can reduce possessions and increase margin variance, making a 30.5-point cover fragile.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Notre Dame's FBS-only profile leads Navy in offensive EPA/play, 0.347 to 0.145, and success rate, 55.6% to 49.8%.
    • The defensive gap is substantial: Notre Dame allows -0.0295 EPA/play versus Navy's 0.1681; ESPN's pregame model projects Notre Dame by 36.623.
    • Both projected QBs, CJ Carr and Jackson Gutierrez, are expected, not officially confirmed; the independent teams have no official availability feed, and the X-signal query was empty.
    Long Way Home
    • Projection, SHARP REFERENCE: ESPN's live pregame model projects Notre Dame by 36.6 points, 6.1 above this line.
    • Notre Dame's 2026 profile leads Navy by 0.167 offensive EPA/play and 0.199 defensive EPA/play.
    • Most likely loss: Navy's option controls possession and keeps the margin below 31 despite an eventual Notre Dame win.
  2. Navy Midshipmen spread +30.53 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Model fair spread is Notre Dame -28.5; Navy covers +30.5 at 53.9% versus 49.1% Pinnacle devigged reference.
    • Pinnacle prices the exact rung Navy +30.5 at -103 and Notre Dame -30.5 at -111; multiplicative devig gives Navy 49.1%.
    • Notre Dame averages a +27.7 scoring margin and allows -0.030 defensive EPA/play versus Navy's +0.169 allowed, a major blowout risk.
    Key Number CFB
    • Projection still supports the cushion: Notre Dame owns +0.347 offensive EPA/play and a 95.4 PFF grade versus Navy's +0.180 and 77.1.
    • QB gate cleared this wake: expected starters and a fresh October 31 Yahoo report identify CJ Carr and Jackson Gutierrez.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame's efficiency and PFF gap converts field position into a 31-point win; Navy has allowed 29.1 points per game.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the core thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pairing qualifies on two of three measures; backing Navy, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Navy +30.5 loses if Notre Dame wins by 31 or more; the 9:00 AM PDT lineup is expected, not confirmed.
  3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Navy Midshipmen over 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected roughly 140 plays and 22 combined drives: Notre Dame 71.4 plays/game, Navy 68.1; pace 30.3 and 29.6 seconds/play.
    • Notre Dame averages 0.347 offensive EPA/play, 55.6% success and 3.55 points/drive; Navy's defense allows 0.169 EPA/play.
    • Both expected quarterbacks are verified: CJ Carr and Jackson Gutierrez; the current lineup view shows each as QB1 over the last three games.
    • The sharp market moved against the over: Pinnacle went from 57 at -103 to 55.5 at +101 before settling at 55.5; that move may reflect information not captured here.
  4. Over 55.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total mean is 56.2 points; Over 55.5 fair probability is 51.8%.
    • Approximately 22 combined drives are projected from 71.1 Notre Dame and 68.9 Navy plays per game at roughly 30-second pace.
    • Notre Dame's current 3.61 points per drive and Navy's 2.63 support an over path; Navy's defense has allowed 30.0 points per game in seven current rows.
    • Model mean is only 0.7 points above the rung; a wide roughly 15-point total distribution leaves turnovers and red-zone conversion decisive.
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish first-half spread NO 23.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DERIVED REFERENCE at the exact 23.5 rung, model NO probability is 77.6% versus a 65¢ entry.
    • CJ Carr and Jackson Gutierrez pass the plurality-starts gate; current preview and expected lineup identify both as the quarterbacks.
    • The 15.25 mean is a half-game projection from the sharp full-game line; first-half scoring asymmetry is not directly observed.
  6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish −30.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Notre Dame leads 2026 EPA/play 0.347 to 0.180 and defense EPA allowed -0.030 to Navy's 0.169.
    • Notre Dame leads success rate 55.6% to 50.7%; PFF team grade gap is 95.4 to 77.1.
    • CJ Carr's 86.9 adjusted QBR materially exceeds Jackson Gutierrez's 53.0; both are the expected quarterbacks.
    • Notre Dame's projected lineup is expected, not confirmed; no official availability feed covers this independent/AAC matchup.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Notre Dame Fighting Irish −31.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Normal approximation at the exact -31.5 line: pooled 2026 margin SD 21.93 across 14 team-games gives 59.2% cover probability.
    • Notre Dame leads 2026 offense EPA/play 0.347 to 0.180 and success rate .556 to .507; defense EPA allowed is -0.0295 versus Navy .1688.
    • The 14-game pooled margin sample is small and mixes opponents; normality and using its SD are explicit, uncalibrated assumptions.
  2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread −31
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Notre Dame -31 pushes on an exact 31-point win; Notre Dame -31.5 loses there.
    • ProphetX prices -31 at 50.74c versus -31.5 at 55.75c, a 5.01c cheaper whole-number rung.
  3. Total Points under 58.5Favorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 seven-game sample: Notre Dame averages 30.31 seconds/play, +8.5% PROE, 12.4% explosive rate and 55.6% success.
    • Navy averages 29.56 seconds/play, -16.0% PROE, 13.2% explosive rate and 50.7% success; its negative PROE limits possession quality.
    • Notre Dame allows -0.0295 defensive EPA/play, while Navy allows +0.1688; the matchup suppresses Navy more than it threatens the total.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame's 85.5 PFF offense overwhelms Navy's 71.2 defense, reaching 42-plus while Navy contributes 17-plus.
  4. Navy Midshipmen over 13.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Adjusted EPA delta +0.2096/play: Navy offense +0.1801 minus Notre Dame defensive allowance -0.0295, seven games each.
    • Navy red-zone TD rate 12/19 (.632); Notre Dame allowed 10/13 (.769) over both teams' last five.
    • Both clocks are slow: Navy 29.56 and Notre Dame 30.31 seconds/play versus 26.93 FBS median; over is capped at 0.5u.
  5. Nolan James Jr. under 72.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 63.0% model probability vs 52.8% implied at FanDuel -112: +10.2 points, +19.3% relative.
    • Navy allows 109.3 rushing yards per game; its warehouse rush-defense rank is 46th of 261, a top-35% under matchup.
    • James is under 72.5 in 4 of 7 2026 games; the exact-line sample is current but shorter than L10.
    • The exact-line record is only 4-3 over seven games, below the 60% L10 threshold; no complete L10 exists, so conviction is capped low.
  6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish over 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • seven-game sample: Notre Dame offense is +0.347 EPA/play versus Navy’s defense at +0.169 allowed; Navy offense is +0.180 versus Notre Dame defense at -0.030 allowed.
    • Notre Dame averages .556 success rate and 3.55 points per drive; Navy averages .507 and 2.80, creating two scoring paths toward 56.
    • Explosive rates are .124 for Notre Dame and .132 for Navy; both offenses have enough chunk-play capacity to overcome the moderate 30.31/29.56-second pace.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame’s defense suppresses Navy and the Irish control the clock after an early lead, producing a result such as 38-10.
  7. Game over 30.5 first-half points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 through Oct. 24: Notre Dame averaged 71.4 plays at 30.31 seconds/play; Navy 68.1 at 29.56, a 29.94-second blended pace.
    • Drive ledger: Notre Dame averaged 10.71 drives/game and Navy 11.14; half-share pace projects about 10.9 first-half drives, trimmed to roughly 10.6 for light wind.
    • Points baseline is 3.55 ND and 2.80 Navy points/drive; PROE was +0.085 ND versus -0.160 Navy, with explosive rates 12.4% and 13.2%, producing a modest net script lift rather than a flat half.
    • no independent sharp first-half total was posted; this is a model-versus-Kalshi ladder call and is capped at LEAN.
  8. Total points over 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SHARP REFERENCE, ProphetX over 55.5 is +100 American (50¢), matching Pinnacle's +100 reference.
    • 2026 game logs: Notre Dame averages 41.2 points scored and allows 14.0; Navy averages 29.7 and allows 28.0.
    • A simple offense/defense midpoint projects approximately 56.4 points, about 0.9 above the posted 55.5.
    • The projection is a crude midpoint from small samples, so the modeled edge is only about one point.

Win chance, start to finish

50%NAVYNDKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Notre Dame vs. Navy?

The Notre Dame won 35–13 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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