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Arizona State vs. BYUFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLaVell Edwards Stadium
Arizona State4–3
20–27Final
BYU6–1
Score by period
Team1234T
ASU0314320
BYU71001027

Top model pick, graded

Won

Bear Bachmeier under 48.5 rushing yards −125

Why NFL Sharp Edge likes it: 45.9-season rushing-yard average is below Fliff's 48.5 line.

NFL Sharp EdgeDown 8% this season · 112 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-6 on this game · −21% return

  1. Game total over 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  2. Over 48.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
  3. Bear Bachmeier under 48.5 rushing yards
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 45.9-season rushing-yard average is below Fliff's 48.5 line.
    • Bachmeier stayed under 48.5 in 5 of 7 games; his median was 37 yards.
    • BYU is a 90.4% ESPN pregame favorite with a projected 19.1-point margin, creating fourth-quarter workload risk.
    • Bachmeier has 28 carries for 82 yards across the last two games, so recent rushing usage is elevated.
  4. BYU Cougars −14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ESPN pregame model projects BYU by 19.118 points and gives BYU a 90.4% win probability.
    • Team grades favor BYU 92.7 to 85.6; recent scoring-margin form favors BYU +14.6 per game to ASU +1.0.
    • ASU QB status is unresolved: Mikey Keene is a game-time decision; a reporter says Jake Fette is in line to start.
  5. Game total over 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels were 3 versus 3: the two-of-three signal is thin-at-quote plus substantially deeper total depth, not level-count support.
    • Venue self-reference is the entire primary read; no independent sharp reference validates the order flow.
  6. Arizona State Sun Devils spread +17
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels were 3 versus 3: the two-of-three signal is thin-at-quote plus deeper total depth, not level-count support.
    • Venue self-reference is the entire primary read; no independent sharp reference validates the order flow.
Show all 11 picks
  1. BYU Cougars spread −14.5 (no push; exactly 14 loses)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BYU -14.5 wins at 15+; a BYU -14 ticket pushes at exactly 14 instead of losing.
    • ProphetX prices BYU -14.5 at 55.95¢ (-127) versus BYU -14 at 60.94¢ (-156).
    • 14.5 loses at exactly 14 while BYU -14 pushes; a matchup-specific margin distribution could erase the relative advantage.
  2. Jojo Phillips under 21.5 receiving yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 62.5% vs FanDuel implied 52.8%: +9.7 points, +18.4% relative gap.
    • Exact-line form: under in 4 of 6 decided games; one push at 21 yards; 66.7% under rate.
    • FanDuel's -112 is executable and materially better than ProphetX's -134 under price.
    • Jojo posted 39 yards last week; two or three efficient catches can clear 21.5.
  3. BYU Cougars to winFavorite
    +15%Won

    Taken at 87¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BYU is 15th FPI and 13th SP+; Arizona State is 65th and 62nd, a large independent rating gap.
    • BYU averages +0.279 offensive EPA/play and 33.1 points; Arizona State averages +0.124 EPA/play and allows 29.9 points.
    • The likeliest loss is an Arizona State upset if QB Mikey Keene, listed Game Time Decision, plays effectively against BYU.
  4. BYU Cougars spread −16.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SHARP REFERENCE, ESPN projects BYU by 19.1, 2.6 points beyond the ProphetX line.
    • BYU's 2026 offense averages 0.279 EPA/play and 53.6% success; Arizona State is at 0.124 and 46.7%.
    • BYU allows 18.6 points per game versus Arizona State's 29.9, supporting separation rather than a close-game script.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona State's offense turns its 30.9 points-per-game profile into enough late scoring to stay inside the number.
  5. Game total under 48
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FBS-opponent filter gives BYU 31.33 sec/play and Arizona State only 0.036 offensive EPA/play; the pace/offense mix leans below 48.
    • Arizona State's FBS success rate is 45.3% with a 12.5% explosive-play rate, limiting reliable scoring drives.
    • Pinnacle is also 48, under -111; the ProphetX under offers the cleaner price despite the market total rising from 47.5.
    • Arizona State plays fast at 23.12 seconds per play, which can create enough possessions to beat a modest total.

Win chance, start to finish

50%BYUASUKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Arizona State vs. BYU?

The BYU won 27–20 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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