VMI vs. ChattanoogaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFinley Stadium
VMI0–8
10–24Final
Chattanooga5–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| CHAT | 0 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame under 46.5 total points 61¢
Why BETALAB 6.0 likes it: Model total 42.5 points, providing a 4.0-point cushion to the 46.5 threshold.
BETALAB 6.0Down 10% this season · 273 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −30% return
- Chattanooga Mocs spread −35.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Margin 36 occurred 60 of 11,423 games (0.5%); crossing this non-key rung cannot explain an 8.34-point probability reversal.
- Chattanooga: +0.002 offensive EPA/play, -0.147 defensive EPA/play; VMI: -0.229 and +0.254 across eight games.
- VMI covers if Chattanooga's mediocre offense stalls despite the large defensive and EPA gap.
Long Way Home- Chattanooga is 4-1 over its last five (+16.2 average margin) while VMI is 0-5 (-31.4); the 47.6-point gap exceeds -35.5.
- Common opponents Wofford, Samford and ETSU produced a 47.3-point average margin advantage for Chattanooga over VMI.
- A large favorite may become conservative late, allowing a VMI garbage-time backdoor cover.
- Game under 46.5 total points+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total 42.5 points, providing a 4.0-point cushion to the 46.5 threshold.
- Chattanooga's recent defense allows 13.25 points per game with -0.1472 EPA/play allowed; its official preview cites top-five national defensive rankings.
- Chattanooga's defense allowed 0.2539 EPA/play in VMI's matchup context only because VMI's offense is extremely weak; a short-field or explosive-play script can still clear 46.5.
- VMI Keydets to win−100%Lost
Taken at 2¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Total points under 43.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Eight-game averages blend to a 42.8-point matchup estimate: Chattanooga offense 22.43 plus VMI defense allowed 41.71, balanced against VMI offense 7.71 and Chattanooga defense allowed 13.71.
- Most likely loss: Chattanooga reaches 40-plus points and VMI adds late garbage-time scores to clear 43.5.
Win chance, start to finish
50%CHATVMIKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won VMI vs. Chattanooga?
The Chattanooga won 24–10 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.