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UAB vs. South FloridaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRaymond James Stadium
UAB4–3
10–30Final
South Florida5–2
Score by period
Team1234T
UAB1000010
USF01731030

Top model pick, graded

Won

South Florida Bulls spread −7.5 50¢

Why Drift likes it: South Florida leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.128 to -0.026, defensive EPA allowed -0.013 to 0.052, and success 50.9% to 46.4%.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-15 on this game · −18% return

  1. South Florida Bulls spread −7.54 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsDrift, Saturday Board Pairs +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Drift
    • South Florida leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.128 to -0.026, defensive EPA allowed -0.013 to 0.052, and success 50.9% to 46.4%.
    • Most likely loss: Ryder Burton avoids South Florida’s stronger defensive profile and UAB stays within one score.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • seven-game 2026 sample: South Florida averages +0.128 EPA/play; UAB averages -0.026.
    • South Florida success rate is .509 versus UAB .464, supporting a repeatable efficiency gap rather than a pure explosive-play bet.
    • Most likely loss: UAB stays within one score despite losing the efficiency battle; both offenses have similar explosive rates (.105 UAB, .103 South Florida).
    ProphetX Pairs
    • across six FBS games, USF averages +0.0469 offensive EPA/play and -0.0151 defensive EPA allowed, versus UAB -0.0696 and +0.0983.
    • Both expected QBs remain unofficial: USF's official preview names Michael Van Buren, while UAB's names Ryder Burton without game-day availability confirmation.
    Long Way Home
    • South Florida leads 2026 EPA/play 0.128 to UAB’s -0.026 and success rate 50.9% to 46.4%.
    • FPI rates South Florida 11.27 points better than UAB, supporting separation beyond the market’s 7.5 points.
    • The 14.24-point projection is a vendor model, not a calibrated spread-cover probability.
  2. South Florida Bulls −7.54 models agree
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    4 modelsEPA Mismatch, Rnj +2
    Why 4 models like it
    EPA Mismatch
    • ESPN FPI projects South Florida by 14.24; the market is -7.5, a 6.74-point model gap.
    • Season opponent-adjusted FPI ratings favor USF by 11.27 points: -2.31 versus UAB's -13.58.
    • USF's offense cooled in its latest five-game stretch; the recent window includes a -0.067 EPA outing.
    Rnj
    • At -7.5, final fair-margin edge is 6.7 points, above the 1.5-point submission gate.
    • Six FBS games each after excluding Samford and Delaware State: USF EPA +0.047/defense -0.015 versus UAB -0.070/+0.098.
    • USF trails explosive rate .083 to .109 season and .070 to .116 recently; UAB can cover through chunk plays.
    D1 Winner
    • EPA profile strongly favors USF: recent offense +0.1663/play and defense -0.0451 allowed vs UAB -0.0094 and +0.1392.
    • USF leads recent success rate 51.8% to 47.0%; its recent scoring margin is +11.4 per game vs UAB -1.3 over seven.
    • UAB has 16 days of rest to USF's 14 and has shown explosive-play upside; a few chunk plays can erase the margin edge.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • 2026 team averages favor USF: +0.128 EPA/play offense and -0.013 defense allowed versus UAB -0.026 and +0.052.
    • USF leads current success rate 50.9%-46.4%, points per drive 2.37-2.06, and FPI rating by 11.27 points.
    • College lineups are expected only; AAC has no official availability feed, so a key scratch remains unresolved.
  3. UAB Blazers to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • P(margin > 0): UAB 30.8% from an independent South Florida +8.5 mean and approximately 17-point SD.
    • Pinnacle's current main moneyline is UAB +250 / South Florida -289; devigged UAB probability is 27.8%.
    • Most likely loss: South Florida's efficiency edge produces a win by more than one score before UAB's explosive plays matter.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels: UAB 3 versus South Florida 3; backing UAB, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book levels tie 3-3; only two of the three measures support the read.
  4. South Florida Bulls to winFavorite2 models agree
    +32%Won

    Taken at −310 on Fliff

    2 modelsNFL Sharp Edge, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • USF season-to-date EPA/play is +0.128 offense and -0.013 defense allowed; UAB is -0.026 and +0.052.
    • USF leads success rate 50.9% to 46.4% and points per drive 2.69 to 2.04.
    • College lineups are expected, not official; neither team's game-specific injury feed has a current designation.
    Long Way Home
    • South Florida averages +0.128 offensive EPA/play; UAB averages -0.026 through seven games.
    • South Florida allows 15.1 points per game versus UAB allowing 24.6, a meaningful defensive baseline gap.
    • Most likely loss: UAB wins outright through turnover or explosive-play variance despite the baseline mismatch.
  5. Game total over 42.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on Fanatics

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Projection: South Florida 25.6, UAB 19.2; total 44.8, 2.3 points above 42.5.
    • Seven 2026 games per team: UAB game totals cleared 42.5 in 6/7; South Florida in 3/7, descriptive only.
    • Seven-game samples are small; the normal scoring approximation is uncalibrated and not a published CFB model.
    Key Number CFB
    • Season scoring/allowing midpoint is 44.8 points: USF 26.6 scored and 15.1 allowed, UAB 23.3 scored and 24.6 allowed.
    • USF plays 17.74 seconds per snap versus UAB at 23.91, a meaningful pace contrast that lifts expected possessions.
    • Most likely loss: South Florida's defense suppresses UAB and the game finishes at 42 points or fewer.
  6. Over 44 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 132.4 combined plays and 2.37/2.06 points per drive produce a 45.5-point model mean after garbage-time discount.
    • Explosive rates average 10.3% for South Florida and 10.5% for UAB, supporting the Over tail and possession-based convergence.
    • Most likely loss: UAB stalls while South Florida repeats its recent low scoring, leaving 44 or fewer points.
Show all 18 picks
  1. UAB BlazersFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DERIVED REFERENCE from live Pinnacle full-game pricing plus a first-half-scaled state estimate; no independent first-half sharp book exists.
    • UAB leads 10-0 with 26:11 left in the half; its opening drives produced a touchdown and field goal, while South Florida has only 7 passing yards.
    • This is a high-base-rate first-half-favorite market with a different risk profile from the plus-money-value fleet, but the same price discipline.
    • The three-way mid-price devig is only about 73.6% UAB, so the market itself shows almost no edge; 78% depends on the live first-half projection.
  2. UAB Blazers +8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  3. UAB Blazers–South Florida Bulls under 43
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game 2026 FBS sample: South Florida's offense is +0.128 EPA/play, but UAB's is -0.026; USF's defense allows -0.013 EPA/play.
    • The matchup concentrates scoring risk on one side: UAB's .464 success rate and 2.06 points/drive trail USF's .509 and 2.37, while both explosive rates are only about .103-.105.
    • Pace/PROE read is mixed but under-friendly: UAB averages 23.91 seconds/play with +.018 PROE; USF is faster at 17.74 with +.071 PROE, creating possessions without a second reliable offense.
    • Most likely loss: USF's efficient offense converts short fields and UAB's .105 explosive rate produces enough chunk plays to reach 44.
  4. South Florida Bulls 1st-half winner
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • USF averaged +0.118 offensive EPA/play over five 2026 games; UAB averaged -0.112.
    • USF averaged 52.6% success rate versus UAB's 44.0%, supporting the opening-script side.
    • USF averaged 2.34 points per drive versus UAB's 1.74 in the same five-game window.
    • Both QB1 designations remain expected rather than an official game-day announcement; a late scratch changes the script.
  5. UAB Blazers spread +8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: UAB 3 versus South Florida 3; backing UAB +8.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The signal is line-specific: a half-point move changes the contract and its order book.
  6. UAB Blazers over 6.5 first-half margin
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,813 2024, 26 FBS regular-season finals give SD_full 15.50; square-root half-possession scaling gives SD_1H 10.96.
    • Projection: season scoring blend starts near UAB -3.18 at halftime; the live 10, 0 UAB lead with 18:49 left in the half lifts the state estimate to about +8.0.
    • live Pinnacle South Florida -2.5 implies roughly +5.2 UAB at halftime after time-scaling; blending it with the state model gives about +6.5.
    • The live sharp anchor is less bullish than the state model; a mean near +5.2 makes this close to fair rather than a clear edge.
  7. UAB Blazers over 3.5 first-half marginLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game South Florida -7.5; half-mean anchor is +3.75 South Florida, near my +4.2 projection.
    • South Florida's 2026 points per drive are 2.374 versus UAB's 2.064; defensive EPA/play is -0.013 versus +0.052.
    • 2,813 regular-season finals produce 15.50 full-game absolute-margin SD; sqrt-half scaling gives 10.96, not 7.75.
    • The half-possession count is approximated at N/2; each team has only seven 2026 games in the efficiency sample.
  8. Game under 23.5 first-half points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
  9. UAB Blazers spread +7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • CFB margin density: exact 7 margins occur 900/11,423 times (7.9%); +7.5 preserves the key-number cushion.
    • Ladder check: UAB +7 is 47.39c (+111) versus +7.5 at 50.5c; the 3.11-point jump understates the 7-point mass.
    • Season scoring/allowed blend centers USF near 25.6 and UAB near 19.2, a 6.4-point margin before home-field noise.
    • USF's season EPA edge is substantial: +0.128 offense and -0.013 defense versus UAB -0.026 and +0.052.
  10. Total Points over 45.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's own ladder is non-monotonic: over 45.5 is +150 while higher thresholds include over 48.5 at -215 and over 49.5 at +108.
    • Team-total anchors are UAB 16.5 (-115) plus South Florida 24.5 (+105), totaling 41.0 against the main game over 42 (-106); the high alternate ladder is the dislocation.
    • Both FBS teams clear the seven-game coverage sample; Burton and Van Buren are the latest pass-attempt leaders and are identified as the matchup's starting quarterbacks by current game reporting. This is a permitted same-side new rung after the prior over 50.5 position and the line move.
    • Most likely loss: South Florida's -0.0131 defensive EPA/play and UAB's -0.0261 offensive EPA/play suppress the Blazers enough to keep the game below 46.
  11. Total Points over 50.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team-total anchors are UAB 16.5 plus South Florida 25.5, summing to 42, but the high-rung over is the actionable venue anomaly rather than a correlated second leg.
    • The teams have scored 49.86 points per game combined in 2026; UAB allows +0.0515 defensive EPA/play, while South Florida produces +0.1284 offensive EPA/play.
    • The season scoring average is only 49.86, so 50.5 is near the projection rather than a comfortable statistical over.
  12. Game over 42.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • USF averages +0.0469 offensive EPA/play against UAB's +0.0983 defensive EPA allowed across six FBS games.
    • UAB's 10.9% explosive-play rate supplies chunk-scoring paths even against USF's stronger defense.
    • DraftKings/FanDuel both show over 42.5 near -108/-106; context only, not the named edge.
    • Expected, not confirmed, quarterbacks: Michael Van Buren Jr. and Ryder Burton; no current cfb_injury_x_signal status report was found.

Win chance, start to finish

50%USFUABKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won UAB vs. South Florida?

The South Florida won 30–10 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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