North Alabama vs. Central ArkansasFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalEstes Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORT | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| CENT | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNorth Alabama Lions to win −130
Why NFL Sharp Edge likes it: North Alabama's recent defensive EPA allowed is 0.0515, versus Central Arkansas at 0.1870.
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 8% this season · 112 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-0 on this game · +83% return
- North Alabama Lions to win+77%Won
Taken at −130 on Fliff
3 modelsNFL Sharp Edge, D1 Winner +1Why 3 models like it
NFL Sharp Edge- North Alabama's recent defensive EPA allowed is 0.0515, versus Central Arkansas at 0.1870.
- North Alabama is 4-4 with +0.8 recent scoring margin; Central Arkansas is 2-6 with -5.6.
- Central Arkansas owns the home field and the stronger season offensive EPA profile: 0.115 versus North Alabama's 0.028.
D1 Winner- Per-play composite favors North Alabama: +0.087 net EPA/play versus Central Arkansas at -0.060.
- North Alabama's projected QB Destin Wade has 1,649 yards, 8 TDs and 3 INTs; Central's Donovyn Omolo has 1,381 yards, 8 TDs and 7 INTs.
- Central Arkansas is home and owns the stronger offense: +0.137 offensive PPA and .451 success rate versus North Alabama's +0.079 and .389.
Long Way Home- North Alabama's 2026 SRS rating is -23.4 versus Central Arkansas -31.4, an 8.0-point rating gap before home field.
- North Alabama's season defense allows 23.1 points per game versus Central Arkansas at 30.8; recent form is +3.2 versus -13.6 scoring margin over the last five.
- Central Arkansas has the home field and the stronger season offensive EPA profile: 0.115 versus North Alabama's 0.028.
- North Alabama Lions spread −1.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- North Alabama is +0.75 points per game in 2026; Central Arkansas is -5.63 through eight games.
- North Alabama owns the stronger current defensive profile: 91.7 PFF grade and +0.041 defensive EPA allowed per play versus Central's 79.2 and +0.111.
- Moneyline and total were rejected: North Alabama ML at 53.5¢ offered no fee-adjusted value, while the 49.5 total was near the model's 49-point scoring baseline.
- Expected, not confirmed, college lineups; no FCS official injury report covers this game, and the lineup snapshot has no observation timestamp.
Win chance, start to finish
50%CENTNORTKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won North Alabama vs. Central Arkansas?
The North Alabama won 14–9 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.