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Boston College vs. DukeFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalWallace Wade Stadium
Boston College4–3
2–47Final
Duke5–2
Score by period
Team1234T
BC20002
DUKE131414647

Top model pick, graded

Won

Duke Blue Devils spread −6.5 53¢

Why BETALAB 6.0 likes it: ESPN pregame model: Duke 77.6% win probability with a projected +10.593 margin.

BETALAB 6.0Down 10% this season · 273 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-3 on this game · +52% return

  1. Duke Blue Devils spread −6.53 models agreeHigh conviction
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsBETALAB 6.0, Saturday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    BETALAB 6.0
    • ESPN pregame model: Duke 77.6% win probability with a projected +10.593 margin.
    • Efficiency gap: Duke recent offense EPA/play 0.1934 and 2.70 points/drive versus Boston College 0.0675 and 2.17.
    • Duke's expected depth chart is not an official lineup; Boston College TE Zeke Moore was a 7:00 AM PDT game-time decision.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • seven-game sample: Duke +0.190 offensive EPA/play; Boston College defense allows +0.049.
    • Boston College posts +0.024 offensive EPA/play; Duke allows -0.0069, creating a two-way efficiency edge.
    • Most likely loss: Boston College's 14.5% explosive rate keeps the game within one possession.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • FBS-only 2026 averages favor Duke: +0.1229 offensive EPA/play versus Boston College +0.0481.
    • Duke also allows 0.0405 defensive EPA/play versus Boston College's 0.0738; the exchange has not fully absorbed that efficiency gap at -6.5.
    • Duke's FBS efficiency advantage is meaningful but modest; a one-score game can fail to cover -6.5.
  2. Duke Blue Devils to winFavorite3 models agree
    +37%Won

    Taken at −270 on Fliff

    3 modelsNFL Sharp Edge, D1 Winner +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • 77% model win probability versus 73.0% implied at Fliff (-270), roughly 5.6% expected value.
    • Duke's 2026 PFF team grade is 89.9 versus Boston College's 68.0; defense leads 90.0 to 71.0.
    • Duke has multiple official game-day outs, including WR Jamien Little, two cornerbacks, an offensive lineman, and a defensive tackle.
    D1 Winner
    • Duke averages +0.190 offensive EPA/play versus Boston College +0.024; defensive EPA allowed is -0.0069 versus +0.0488.
    • Duke's PFF team grade is 89.9 versus Boston College's 68.0, with advantages in offense, pass block, defense, and special teams.
    • Duke has two starting-corner designations listed Out, while Kyon Loud is only Probable; Boston College can exploit the secondary.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • ESPN projects Duke by 10.593 points; -265 implies 72.6% raw win probability.
    • Duke FPI 7.511, rank 42, and team grade 89.9 versus Boston College FPI 0.173, rank 70, and grade 68.0.
    • College starters are expected rather than confirmed; Duke has multiple official defensive, offensive-line, receiver and kicker absences.
  3. Duke Blue Devils spread −7
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seven-game efficiency: Duke +0.190 offensive EPA/-0.007 defensive versus BC +0.024/+0.049; success is 46.5%/46.2%.
    • Most likely loss: Duke's offensive EPA regresses while BC's recent 49-point performance sustains its explosive offense.
  4. 2-leg parlay
    +69%Won

    Taken at −145

    Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke model 80.0% versus 72.6% raw implied at -265: +7.4 points.
    • Duke's current-season recent profile leads Boston College in offense EPA/play 0.1934 to 0.0675, defense allowed 0.0275 to 0.0995, and points/drive 2.700 to 2.172.
    • Georgia model 86.5% versus 81.5% raw implied at -440: +5.0 points.
    • Georgia-Florida is a rivalry at a neutral indoor venue; Florida's offense still posts 0.2102 EPA/play and 0.5127 success over its recent window.
  5. Duke Blue Devils −7
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    EPA MismatchUp 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent opponent-adjusted EPA favors Duke: +0.193 offense / +0.028 defense allowed versus Boston College +0.068 / +0.100.
    • Duke's 2026 team grade is 89.9 versus Boston College's 68.0, with advantages in offense, pass grade, run grade, and defense.
    • FPI projects Duke by 10.6 points; SP+ and SRS ratings also favor Duke by 8.3 and 10.6 neutral points before venue.
    • Duke's FPI schedule-strength rank is 85, so its recent efficiency sample may be less portable than the raw gap suggests.
  6. Under 48.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 47.0 points; Under 48.5 fair probability is 54.0%.
    • Boston College averages 67.3 plays and Duke 71.1; 26.3/28.6-second pace projects about 138 combined plays.
    • Current points per drive are 2.07 for Boston College and 2.57 for Duke; blowout scoring was discounted.
    • Most likely loss: Duke's 2.57 points per drive and Boston College's defensive allowance create 50-plus points.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Duke Blue Devils first-half winnerFavorite
    +10%Won

    Taken at 91¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DERIVED REFERENCE from live full-game prices plus a first-half-scaled state estimate; no independent first-half sharp price exists.
    • Season-to-date Duke: +0.190 offensive EPA/play, -0.007 defensive EPA/play allowed, 46.5% success; Boston College: +0.024, +0.049, 46.2%.
    • This is a high-base-rate first-half-favourite market with a different risk profile from the plus-money-value fleet, but the same price discipline; the 5-point raised derived-reference bar is met.
    • There are still roughly 16:47 of first-half game time; a defensive or special-teams score can erase an 11-point lead quickly.
  2. Duke Blue Devils first-half spread over 4.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1,052 signed FBS margins produce SD 23.33; square-root half-possession scaling gives first-half SD 16.50, not 11.67.
    • Season-to-date efficiency gap projects Duke's full-game margin near 13 points, or roughly 6.5 at halftime.
    • Pinnacle's -7 full-game spread scales to 3.5 first-half mean and 52.4% at this rung, also above price.
    • Quarterback status is expected, not officially confirmed; Mason McKenzie and Walker Eget are the plurality starters and live previews support them.
  3. 1Q total over 7.5 points
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent-five points per drive: Duke 2.65, Boston College 2.20; the possession-based projection is roughly 12 first-quarter points.
    • Recent-five pace: Duke 28.2 seconds per play and Boston College 30.7, supporting 2-3 opening possessions per side.
    • Recent-five offensive EPA/play: Duke +0.215 and Boston College +0.031; both offenses have enough efficiency for an early score.
    • A first quarter is only about five possessions per team; one turnover, explosive play, or missed field goal moves the result by seven points.
  4. Game over 23.5 first-half points
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season: BC 80 drives/5.75 plays, Duke 79/6.14; projection is 5.71 and 5.64 first-half drives.
    • Duke pace is 28.62 seconds/play; BC robust pace is 29.82 excluding one 5.09-second data outlier.
    • Drive-level variance is wide; one turnover or short field can swing 7+ points, with the threshold 4.5 below projection.
  5. Duke Blue Devils −6.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season EPA: Duke +0.190/play offense versus Boston College +0.024; defensive EPA allowed -0.0069 versus +0.0488.
    • FPI ratings are 7.511 versus 0.173; SP+ ratings are 6.8 versus -1.5.
    • ESPN's matchup model projects Duke by 10.6 points; Duke's PFF team grade leads 89.9 to 68.0.
    • Duke's official report lists multiple absences across the offensive line, receivers, and secondary; Boston College also lists six players out.
  6. Duke −10
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke's 2026 PFF team grade is 89.9 versus Boston College's 68.0; latest graded season is 2026.
    • Duke's season offense EPA/play is +0.190 versus Boston College's +0.024; Duke defense allows -0.0069 EPA/play versus Boston College's +0.0488.
    • Key-number density: the -9.5/-10/-10.5 ladder crosses margin 10, which occurs 483 times in 11,423 completed FBS games; the rung prices that jump as only a small implied-probability step.
    • A final margin of exactly 10 is a push, not a win; a Duke win by 3-9 loses.
  7. Bo MacCormack III under 55.5 rushing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Beta-binomial exact-line model: 65.0% under versus FanDuel -112 implied 52.8% (+12.2 points; +23.0% relative).
    • Duke's 0.3498 defensive rush-success rate ranks 42nd of 316 on the defense-friendly orientation (top 13%).
    • The line is below Bo's 2026 median workload outcome despite the market pricing his recent role.
    • The exact-line sample is only five games: 4 unders, 1 over, 0 pushes; it is not a full L10 and forces low conviction.
  8. Duke Blue Devils spread −7.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke's 2026 offense averages +0.190 EPA/play through seven games, versus Boston College at +0.024.
    • Duke allows 16.0 points per game; Boston College allows 23.6, a 7.6-point defensive gap.
    • Most likely loss: Duke wins by 1, 7 points or Boston College gets a late backdoor cover.
  9. total points under 48.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; recent totals were under 48.5 in 4 of Boston College's last 7 and 4 of Duke's last 7.
    • Duke's defense allowed 16.0 points per game and posted -0.0069 defensive EPA per play across seven 2026 games.
    • The matchup profile combines Boston College's 24.4-point offense with Duke's control-oriented defense; 48.5 is above both teams' recent total averages.
    • Duke averaged 29.9 points and Boston College's latest game totaled 76; one explosive offensive outlier reaches 49.
  10. Total Points under 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup blend centers near 47 points: Boston College averages 24.43 points against Duke's -0.0069 defensive EPA/play; Duke averages 29.86 against Boston College's +0.0488 allowed EPA/play.
    • Duke's 2026 PFF defense grade is 90.0 with 75.5 coverage, while Boston College's defense grades 71.0; the stronger unit should suppress the Eagles' scoring rate.
    • Personnel gate cleared: Mason McKenzie led Boston College's latest pass attempts and Walker Eget led Duke's; the current Yahoo preview reports both quarterback roles.
    • No official game-day lineup card is posted; Boston College has six players out plus one questionable, and Duke has multiple defensive absences.

Win chance, start to finish

50%DUKEBCKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Boston College vs. Duke?

The Duke won 47–2 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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