Purdue vs. Penn StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBeaver Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
| PSU | 14 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 55.5 49¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Penn State's recent defensive EPA allowed is 0.02 per play; the market total is 55.5.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 10-14 on this game · −27% return
- Purdue Boilermakers spread +10.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Key Number CFB +1Why 3 models like it
ProphetX CFB Lines- Pinnacle's current main line is Penn State -10 / Purdue +10 at -113 / +101; devigged Purdue probability is 48.4%, so model gap is 6.8 points.
- Most likely loss: Penn State's home-field edge and Purdue's +0.24 defensive EPA allowed produce an 11-point-or-more Nittany Lions win.
Key Number CFB- Projection context keeps the spread near the market: Purdue averages +0.20 EPA/play on offense, while Penn State allows -0.01 EPA/play; Penn State's PFF overall edge is 89.0 to 72.4.
- Most likely loss: Penn State wins by 11 or more, clearing Purdue's key-number protection.
Long Way Home- Purdue has posted positive offensive EPA in 5 of 7 games and is 3-2 over its last five.
- Penn State is 1-4 over its last five, with only +1.2 average scoring margin and negative offensive EPA in three straight.
- Purdue's defense has allowed positive EPA in all seven listed games; Penn State can turn that into an early multi-score lead.
- Penn State Nittany Lions to win+28%Won
Taken at 78¢ on Polymarket US
3 modelsHeater Two-Hour, Picks With Pink Grading System +1Why 3 models like it
Heater Two-Hour- The price advantage is only 0.5 cents, so fees and execution friction can erase the edge.
Picks With Pink Grading System- ESPN FPI pregame model projects Penn State at 81.2% with a +12.47-point predicted margin.
- Penn State FPI rating is 11.96 (rank 30) versus Purdue's 2.27 (rank 58).
- Penn State is 1-4 with a +1.2 average margin over its last five; recent form conflicts with the FPI projection.
CFB HunterV2- Model probability 81.0% versus 75.9% devigged sharp-market probability: 5.1-point edge.
- Penn State FPI rating 11.96 versus Purdue 2.27; rankings 30th versus 58th.
- Rocco Becht is expected, not officially confirmed as Penn State's starter; a late quarterback change materially changes the estimate.
- Game total under 55.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCFB Heater, House RulesWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Penn State's recent defensive EPA allowed is 0.02 per play; the market total is 55.5.
- Purdue's recent defense allowed 0.32 EPA per play, creating touchdown and explosive-play variance.
House Rules- ProphetX quotes under 55 at +100 (50.00¢) versus under 55.5 at -108 (51.92¢).
- Under 55.5 loses at 56 or more; the half-point removes push protection rather than creating a refund.
- Purdue Boilermakers to win−100%Lost
Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSaturday Board, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board- Most likely loss: Penn State's stronger defense and home field suppress Purdue's offense, producing a double-digit Nittany Lions win.
Long Way Home- Penn State's offense produced negative EPA/play in three of its last four listed games and scored 18, 13, 20, and 23 points.
- Purdue's recent offense posted positive EPA/play in four of six listed games, including +0.35 versus Minnesota and +0.24 versus Illinois.
- Most likely loss: Penn State's home-field and talent edge turns Purdue's weak defense into a multi-score game.
- Penn State Nittany Lions spread −10.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- game FBS sample: Penn State allows -0.01 EPA/play; Purdue allows +0.24, the matchup's clearest structural gap.
- Penn State's PFF defense grades 88.2 overall and 93.0 in coverage versus Purdue's 66.8 and 43.2.
- Most likely loss: Purdue's offense averages +0.20 EPA/play, .4944 success, and .1336 explosive rate, creating enough chunk plays to stay within 10.
ProphetX Pairs- ESPN projects Penn State by 12.47; ProphetX posts -10.5, a 1.97-point gap.
- Penn State's FBS-opponent defense allowed -0.01 EPA/play; Purdue allowed +0.24.
- Purdue's FBS offense is stronger: +0.19 EPA/play versus Penn State's +0.09.
- Game total over 54.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Saturday Board PairsWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- CFB histogram: exact 55 occurred 436 times versus 190 at 56; the 54.5-to-55.5 step should not carry this price gap.
- Purdue offense averaged +0.20 EPA/play; Penn State's defense allowed -0.01 EPA/play, keeping the projection near the market while the ladder error supplies the edge.
- Most likely loss: the game finishes 54 or fewer; Penn State allowed only 18.9 points per game this season and owns an 88.2 PFF defense grade.
Saturday Board Pairs- Purdue offense averages +0.20 EPA/play, .4944 success, and .1336 explosive rate against Penn State’s -.0137 defensive EPA allowed.
- Penn State offense averages +0.09 EPA/play and .4602 success against Purdue’s permissive +.2437 defensive EPA allowed.
- Most likely loss: Penn State’s -.0137 defensive EPA/play suppresses Purdue, leaving the game at 54 or fewer.
Show all 16 picks
- Andrew Rappleyea over 4.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at +126 on BetOnline
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 23.0% target share over 3 games: 7/41, 10/32, 9/44; share CV is 29.8%, below the 35% stability gate.
- 80.3% average route rate across those games and 169 recent expected snaps support a real opportunity share.
- Most likely loss: Penn State controls the game and shifts to Carson Hansen and James Peoples, leaving Rappleyea below five catches.
- Over 56 total−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Load-bearing possession factor: Purdue and Penn State average 71.1 and 70.7 plays; explosive rates are 13.4% and 9.9%.
- Most likely loss: Penn State's defense turns Purdue inefficiency into a low-scoring game despite the combined-play baseline.
- Purdue Boilermakers over 21.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at −111 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted EPA delta +0.21/play: Purdue offense +0.20 minus Penn State defensive allowance -0.01.
- Purdue scored touchdowns on 22 of 35 red-zone trips (.629); Penn State allowed 14 of 21 (.667), both over the over trigger.
- Purdue's .494 success rate and 1.27 explosive index compare favorably with Penn State's .388 defensive success rate and 1.21 defensive explosiveness index.
- Purdue's 29.14 seconds/play is slow relative to the 22.67-second FBS median; its effect is partly offset by Penn State's unusually low 12.06-second figure.
- Game under 55.5 total points+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Their last-five scoring averages sum to 53.6 points before matchup adjustment.
- Penn State allowed 132 points through seven games, while its recent defense graded materially better than Purdue's offense in the matchup profile.
- Research quality 78/100; grade B because the edge is supported but the current-season sample and lineup uncertainty limit calibration.
- Purdue's current-season defense allowed roughly +0.24 EPA per play across seven games, creating a credible Penn State 30-plus-point path.
- Total Points over 55.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Matchup EPA supports scoring: Purdue offense averages +0.20 EPA/play against Penn State's -0.01 allowed; Penn State's +0.09 offense faces Purdue's +0.24 allowed.
- The teams have scored 60.0 combined points per game through seven contests; the 55.5 rung remains below that current scoring baseline.
- Penn State's pace estimate uses only 3 of 7 rows after obvious sub-10-second feed anomalies; possession count is uncertain.
- Penn State Nittany Lions first-half spread NO 9.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- current 14-7 score plus Pinnacle live full-game -10 implies roughly a one-point Penn State edge in the remaining quarter to halftime, not a two-score burst.
- 2022-25 FBS sample: 3,660 games, full-game margin SD 14.61; square-root scaling gives approximately 10.33 first-half SD and 7.3 SD for the remaining quarter.
- Pinnacle's live full-game -10, scaled through the shown margin/variance framework, agrees with the same-rung NO direction.
- One Penn State scoring drive turns the current seven-point lead into an immediate loss; the remaining-increment SD is wide at about 7.3 points.
- Penn State Nittany Lions first-half spread NO 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; 2026 through Week 7 averages imply a Penn State first-half margin near +4.7.
- Pinnacle full-game Penn State -10 (-113) scales to roughly -5 at halftime, consistent with +4.7.
- College margin 7 is the largest exact mass in the sample: 293/3,660 (8.0%); the 6.5 rung sits just below it, compressing the continuous-model edge.
- Carson Hansen under 66.5 rushing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 6-1 under 66.5 in seven 2026 regular-season games; exact sample yards: 48, 84, 37, 11, 19, 28, 51.
- Empirical normal fit to those seven games: mean 39.7 yards, SD about 24.3; conservative matchup/workload haircut gives 74% under.
- Official availability was re-confirmed at 11:15 AM PT; expected HB-L role shows 137 snaps across the last three games.
- The seven-game sample is incomplete for the L10 gate, so conviction is capped LOW.
- Purdue Boilermakers +10.5−100%Lost
Taken at −102 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Purdue offense: +0.20 EPA/play, 49.4% success rate, and 13.4% explosive rate versus Penn State's +0.09 EPA/play offense.
- The fair spread is Penn State -8.5; +10.5 provides a two-point cushion against the current market number.
- Two weeks of rest follow Purdue's Oct. 16 and Penn State's Oct. 17 games; 57°F, 0% rain, and northwest wind 1-5 mph (gusts 14) do not suppress Purdue's passing attack.
- Penn State's defense has allowed -0.01 EPA/play, while Purdue's defense has allowed +0.24; that is the matchup most likely to produce a double-digit home win.
- Game over 27.5 first-half points+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season-to-date (7 games) valid pace: Purdue 29.14 sec/play, Penn State 25.01; blended pace is 27.08.
- Season points/drive are 2.67 and 2.37; positive PROE/explosive rates (.133/.134 and .100/.099) support a 2.55 first-half PPD estimate.
- This is a derived same-rung reference, not an independent first-half sharp total; model error dominates.
Win chance, start to finish
50%PSUPURKickoff
Oct 31Final
Questions
Who won Purdue vs. Penn State?
Penn State won 31-17 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.